The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Ingot54]

Generally you don't want to be trading back into a peak low. I am calling that nice shakeout on the 1 hr a peak. So I just took a lazy early entry in case it just hit the asia stops and ran. EUR is being held while GU dumps.

Truth is there is more than enough room on the UC trade to take a small short. As that M was so pretty. Just need a nice entry. We have a bit of breakdown in the correlations at the moment. I'd just play tight. on that short. I normally ignore UC and trade EU. In this case UC has the nicer pattern. EUR has been "held" and is lagging CHF and GBP.

Mike

Thanks Mike.

I understand why you would normally trade the EU, and because of the almost 98% neg correlation frequently seen between thm, I may end up dropping the UCHF from the lineup. The fewer the number of charts I follow ... the better it is for my attention/concentration.

I don't understand how you can see the market "holding" certain pairs while others run ... I guess this is all a part of eyeballing the charts, and observing that charts (ie the USD Majors) that should be moving in unison with others, are not doing it, while others that have little reason to move (ie the crosses) are on a tear.

Sigh... a bit ahead of me yert, but I can only master one thing at a time, and for now it is the pins ... next the M & W, then the levels... then ...

But I am happy with the progress I am making ... nailing 193.7 pips yesterday, and locking in 20 now with the UCHF is a good result after 10 days study.

In 3 months I'll have this nailed to the mast!

[Ingot54]

With the USDCHF 1H candle so close to closing now, and beginning to pin/show bear trapping behaviour, I have closed it for 21.5 pips, @ .92960.

It was not where I would like it to have gone but it was where it WAS going imho, so a nice trade for me, and a confidence boost too.

Next ...

[banteka]

Morning.
These are my thoughts on USD/CAD:

[mjws00]

I almost always have a screen or two full of these to show correlations, and what may or may not be moving / spiking. Since I am trading an AUD triangle arb, it has the right side.

I tried to make the explanations clear. But the intent is, if you are paying attention you could have taken the GBPJPY short vs the USDJPY. A 15M CSS overview ala 10.4 shows the strengths changing nicely as well, but seems a little tricky, and laggy to read.

Good luck,

Mike

[Ingot54]

I almost always have a screen or two full of these to show correlations, and what may or may not be moving / spiking. Since I am trading an AUD triangle arb, it has the right side.

I tried to make the explanations clear. But the intent is, if you are paying attention you could have taken the GBPJPY short vs the USDJPY. A 15M CSS overview ala 10.4 shows the strengths changing nicely as well, but seems a little tricky, and laggy to read. Mike

Thanks for those insights, Mike.

I guess I used to do pretty much the same thing when eyeballing 20+ charts, but didn't realise it.
I used to look at the charts of say EURJPY and GBPJPY, and "know" which of the two would "win the race."

The way you do it, gives evidence to the "art" making it more of a "science." I guess after thousands of hours with charts, there are things you "know" but didn't know that you knew, if you understand my drift.

I used to attempt to arrange the up-trenders on top, with the down-trenders under them, in such a way that those with the most negative correlation were top/bottom of each other. The most famous negative correlation, as you know, is the EURUSD vs USDCHF. And the YEN and other pairs do the same eg the EURJPY vs CHFJPY is strongly positively correlated - no surprises there.

Thanks again for that - and for reminding me of the importance of knowing what is going on in the market at all levels. But one thing at a time ...

Ivan

[McNish]

Ivan - Pick one, go one by one; Way to go. For me it's entry on retraces and levels that's working, pins not so yet. Still me make sense on volumes for a good trade.
You also got the MCC stuff right. Thus even i have only 1 main profile all the times and couple more pairs from the DBMx profile.

UJ stopped out for small loss. had book some on this so the loss is cushioned. Trade bias reset for this pair.
Now will look to short from RRT on top or if another opportunity presents.

[Jemook]

Bit of help from the pros please.. I'm a bit stuck on how to determine the levels would love a bit of advice here. Please see following screenshots and let me know which is correct or if all are incorrect

2013-07-30 11.08.31 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.04 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.36 pm.png

Are there any hard rules about where the 1st push should start from or how to determine levels?

Cheers
J

[Ingot54]

Bit of help from the pros please.. I'm a bit stuck on how to determine the levels would love a bit of advice here. Please see following screenshots and let me know which is correct or if all are incorrect

Are there any hard rules about where the 1st push should start from or how to determine levels?

J

You have identified some pushes alright Jemook. On the first chart, the first push has been nullified because it has retraced back to where it began. It's swinging at that point, not pushing up/down.

Chart #2 nails it in my view, but yes a case could be made for chart 3 as well.
I would begin with 29th July ... before that it is just swing stuff ... imho.

That's about it - but just an apprentice-side view here.

Incidentally, I can't actually see a trade here (no pinning ... no M ... or W.)

It is not easy until you "get it" ... but "getting it" is the hard part

[pips400]

Bit of help from the pros please.. I'm a bit stuck on how to determine the levels would love a bit of advice here. Please see following screenshots and let me know which is correct or if all are incorrect

2013-07-30 11.08.31 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.04 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.36 pm.png

Are there any hard rules about where the 1st push should start from or how to determine levels?

Cheers
J

I'm not a pro, but this is what I see.

AUDUSD-H1.jpg

A new level is identified with a new lower low (for down) or higher high (for up)

Pips400

[Ingot54]

I was expecting a 3rd push down on NZDUSD today, so I put 2 sells on the H1/M15 pins erlier this morning, but now I am not so sure, they could make just 2 push and go up from there...

Still looks bearish to me, but I don't like those pins on H4
What do you guys think of NU for today?

Hi Lilac - I'll have a go at this for you.

Zoom right out to WEEKLY view ... you can see a three push up followed by pinning and a drop back around 50% (so far). This would have been nice to spot on Monday

Unsure if it will keep dropping ... or if that part of the move has past ... the clues will lie somewhere in the lower TF. The Daily doesn't help much, other than to confirm higher pinning, signalling the beginning of that downwards move on Monday.

On looking at the 4H, it seems to me that the second push down has completed, and the current pinning of the last two 4H candles is the beginning of the next leg down. Looking at the 1H I can see the M ... particularly with the help of flipping to the line chart - it is clear there.

So ... in my myopic view, I would say there are about 130 pips down to the foot of the next push - somewhere in the .7880 - .7870 zone ... or the 61.8 fibs ... .7850.

You have a few choices there Lilac. but I am fairly sure this is going down. Don't hang out for those 130 pips though - no one knows, and the ride down is NOT going to be in a straight line! Best to take what is offered, and get it off the table fast.