The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Jemook]

Bit of help from the pros please.. I'm a bit stuck on how to determine the levels would love a bit of advice here. Please see following screenshots and let me know which is correct or if all are incorrect

2013-07-30 11.08.31 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.04 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.36 pm.png

Are there any hard rules about where the 1st push should start from or how to determine levels?

Cheers
J

I'm not a pro, but this is what I see.

AUDUSD-H1.jpg

A new level is identified with a new lower low (for down) or higher high (for up)

Pips400

Thanks Pips (and Ivan!!) for your answers. If someone else can confirm that pips400 is correct it will be one more push in the right direction for me.

Cheers
J

[lilac]

I was expecting a 3rd push down on NZDUSD today, so I put 2 sells on the H1/M15 pins erlier this morning, but now I am not so sure, they could make just 2 push and go up from there...

Still looks bearish to me, but I don't like those pins on H4
What do you guys think of NU for today?

Hi Lilac - I'll have a go at this for you.

Zoom right out to WEEKLY view ... you can see a three push up followed by pinning and a drop back around 50% (so far). This would have been nice to spot on Monday

Unsure if it will keep dropping ... or if that part of the move has past ... the clues will lie somewhere in the lower TF. The Daily doesn't help much, other than to confirm higher pinning, signalling the beginning of that downwards move on Monday.

On looking at the 4H, it seems to me that the second push down has completed, and the current pinning of the last two 4H candles is the beginning of the next leg down. Looking at the 1H I can see the M ... particularly with the help of flipping to the line chart - it is clear there.

So ... in my myopic view, I would say there are about 130 pips down to the foot of the next push - somewhere in the .7880 - .7870 zone ... or the 61.8 fibs ... .7850.

You have a few choices there Lilac. but I am fairly sure this is going down. Don't hang out for those 130 pips though - no one knows, and the ride down is NOT going to be in a straight line! Best to take what is offered, and get it off the table fast.

Exactly, I took it on monday at the high peaks, and closed it yesterday in good green, I almost took another sell before the second push in Asia, but didn't dare. Today I saw what could be the 3erd push setup and I took it, I'm out now already with the green.

I realized the first level is the safest and the best RR ratio too, they do not always make 3 steps up or down, as the other levels depend on where they find their wanted volume, and I am not sure where to find clues for the path they are going to follow before making the real move, apart from looking for patterns and RRT pins at relevant reversal areas on H4 and D1, and pattern confluences on H1 and M15.

I think identifying the current cycle and the level is key to success, and this needs experience and knowing the cycle behavior of each specific pair. So there is still a lot to learn here, but I am already experiencing some improvement in my trading results.

Thank you all guys!

[Pedigree]

Bit of help from the pros please.. I'm a bit stuck on how to determine the levels would love a bit of advice here. Please see following screenshots and let me know which is correct or if all are incorrect

2013-07-30 11.08.31 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.04 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.36 pm.png

Are there any hard rules about where the 1st push should start from or how to determine levels?

Cheers
J

Hi Jem,

As usual, you've got yet another good thing going here because it affords us all another chance to clarify a few things that may still be hazy for us regarding Naked Trading (NT).

I am still wondering why I am chiming in here becos you called for the pros and I don't consider myself one yet. But I know what I know, and the bit I know is working, otherwise I would have thrown it out like I did the first time I attempted NT. Maybe this is what emboldens me to chip in here.

Before I say another word, I want to implore CJ to please vet as strictly as he can all that is said here, and to not hesitate to bring out his whip to lash into place anything that may be out of line.

Your chart C is the correct one. A and B are wrong because they have depicted a level 1 that still lies in the M (or W as the case may be). Level 1 must lie distinct from the M or W formed in the top-most or bottom-most level. This was a hint I got from Kwanann that has proved to be so so helpful.

I also want to clarify a point here that I have wondered about for a while. There are not 3 but 4 levels. Levels 0, 1, 2 and 3! Level 3 does not become Level1, it becomes Level 0. It cannot be otherwise if there are 3 drops (or rises) and each starts and ends in a level.

Having answered your question, I will also give you a few hints that I have found very valuable. CJ said in a post that I chose to always remember, and I quote:

"Waiting for "only" the trades after a level 3 reset is the way to put all of this together. The best "M" and "W"'s usually occur there and the moves are the longest in length. "

What I will add to this (and this is specially for you Jem ) is that you should let your bona fide level 3 be on H4, so also your Peak Highs and Lows. It is not that those on H1/M15 are not important, but I find that, subjective as level depiction is, most errors issue from the H1/M15 time frames. This is mainly because the levels on H1/M15 MUST work themselves out within the levels of H4 such that sometimes, the levels on H1/M15 do not complete before ti is time to obey the dictates of the H4 direction.

So, if for instance you are trading from an H4 Peak High (and you know you should ALWAYS trade away from the last Peak High (or Low)), look for Ms to trade on H1/M15 especially around the London open. Why? Because the H4 Peak High so dictates! If you see any Ws at this time, view them with suspicion and be extra careful if you choose to trade them. It is not easy, let alone advisable, to trade from one H4 Peak High to the next H4 Peak Low, and if you must trade in between the top-most levels, then it will be helpful to remember this hint.

There was one more hint I thought of at the beginning to pass on but cannot just recall anymore!!! So, maybe some other time. I hope this goes some way in helping you on.

[ciliano]

This is why I am long AUDUSD. Keep in mind I am bad at this, so take this with a grain of salt but:

-High volume downward pin
-0.9050 is pretty round
-On H4 it is ranging and the low pin got close to the ranging low
-You can make out 3 levels kind of, but that might not matter as much here
-the long downward bars shouldn't be second push since apparently the market makers use push 1 and push 3
-Lots of downward printing pins with bottoms moving upward
-Looks like the first legs of a "W"
-Pins on H4

Again, it's all speculation and I am not good at this but those are my thoughts

AU.PNG

[eltax100]

Hi Ciliano
thats how i see it also

[mjws00]

I don't really think strictly rules based counts are going to work. I keep hoping someone will find something repeatable and valid. Alas, they mix it up enough to screw with you. Remember, a beautiful 3 Count ties nicely into Elliot Wave, which is a sub culture the fox likes to munch on.

It is the transitions that matter. We want to spot WHEN they are slamming on the brakes. And then shaking out the weak traders to take profit, re-balance their book, RELOAD.

I count the IMPULSE, and then look for consolidation. But when the count gets ugly and it often does. LOOK FOR IT TO GET NASTY AND SPIKY. We have always called those level 1/3 here. It is how our PEAKS Formations get made.

I can see B and C of Jem's charts as valid. I can come up with a near perfect count almost every time. It's not the count that matters. It is the price action at each level. Counting rigidly gives them a better chance to trap you. Keep in mind also: TIME. We rarely have more than 1 level in a day.

We want to be looking through the screen to see HOW, WHERE, WHEN the fox is going to screw over the most traders. Who did he hurt? Who got trapped? What were the errors? Where might it be a good place to transfer their money?

Here is a GBPUSD Example.

Mike

Edited: Chart A doesn't work for me.

[Pedigree]

Bit of help from the pros please.. I'm a bit stuck on how to determine the levels would love a bit of advice here. Please see following screenshots and let me know which is correct or if all are incorrect

2013-07-30 11.08.31 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.04 pm.png

2013-07-30 11.09.36 pm.png

Are there any hard rules about where the 1st push should start from or how to determine levels?

Cheers
J

Hi again Jem and Everyone,

As at the time I posted the last reply to this issue, I had not traded AU for some time. In fact, I just went back to look at my Naked Trading chart for AU after the post and discovered that I left off marking it about the middle of May! The funny part of it is that the levels I marked up till then (May) looked totally wrong to me now!!! Well, there's objectivity for you! I want to believe that this means that I have since made some progress regarding this issue!!!

Anyway, the reason I revisit Jem's question is that it illustrates the point I was making about the H4 trend authenticity and how the H1/M15 trend can clash with it, always to the latter's detriment! Looking at the H1 charts that Jem posted, I would have felt that AU was at the second level and so would have been looking for an M to sell. But on going back to also look at the H4 chart, I discovered after having to remark it (attached), that AU is actually on the 3rd level on H4 and has been busy since about the 20th of June exhibiting the characteristic topsy-turvy nature of that level.

So, if I was to trade AU now, I would be looking for a pin to the down side or a W to take me up and away from this level rather than an M for the sell suggested by the H1 chart!

I would not have been so confident to depict AU's present H4 level as level 3 if not for the characteristic pattern it has developed since June 20. It is similar to the pattern spoken about in CJ's early posts and used to describe how the fox does its thing.

So the moral of all this is, as someone already said, that the fox takes off in the direction that is most profitable to it and although this compels it to leave certain identifiable tracks behind, they are not hard and fast. Also that sometimes, it is the behaviour of price at some level that helps you identify it, rather than strictly the count.

[mjws00]

Here is EURUSD. To contrast with GBPUSD above. EU has held where GU sold off hard.

Mike

[mjws00]

Heh. Just doing a quick review and spotted this one.

They tagged my 10.4 Bot with that little move. Think they will take the stop at the Weekly Pivot? . If I let it ride to the 240 how much will I lose (147 pips)?

(I leave Andy's bot running, and watch when it is getting hammered. It has actually done well the last few days, caught decent trades I missed. Prior to that it was getting pummeled. This spike tagged it almost perfectly. Think there are any other BO traders at that pivot, and Big ROUND number that got stuck long?)

Tiny bit off topic, but another way to study how and where the fox does his dirty work.

Lest anyone think I am picking on 10.4. The bot has done. 6.65% this week (2 days). With the only closure criteria being: Me randomly seeing a profit and closing it blind.

Mike

[McNish]

Markets Moving well. Have trades in EU, GU short & UC, UJ, long. Lets see how goes.

Can anyone reason why UsdCad is moving out of session?