The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[pips400]

I don't want to extend the current discussion further only to say that if you were to post the questions being raised recently to the so called experts and gurus, I expect you'd get a different answer from each. Since this is CJ's thread, and not making a similarity between his honest and insightful expertise to the other offerings out there, the only one who can really answer is CJ himself IMHO. I am not sure I need to go down the fox hole, to wonderland, I can wait till fox appears in my world.

Have a great week everyone.

Pips400

EDIT, in writing this, CJ has already repsonded regarding volume. In short he says "Not the main thread as it adds confusion and it is not a method I use." Thanks CJ for clearing that up.

[Pedigree]

Let me set a few things in order here. Volume is not a measure of "orders". Volume as presented to you by the platform, is nothing more than "activity" in a pair. It is indicative of "price ticks", be they up or down. Nothing more and nothing less. It is local to your chosen broker and varies with each, unless they are a "white box" or branded server on a larger net.

As stated previously, price ticks increase when "transactions" take place and the more transactions, the larger or more active the ticks become.
CJ

Well, thanks for this bit. Just yesterday morning I had this exchange with Gary:

I'm not 100% sure, but I believe the tick reflects one transaction with your Liquidity Providers. It says nothing about the size of the transaction. Might be 0.1 lot, might be 1000.

And remember that your broker might filter ticks, and every set of LPs will have different sets of ticks, etc.

Jemook probably has more insight on this than I do.
Gary

Hi Gary,

I hope this PM meets you well!

I apologize for barging in on you like this, but a question came up that I believe you could help solve right away.

You will recall that we had a brief discussion sometime about Ticks and how they are generated in Empty4. You can find it here:

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 156#p67156

I just wanted to ask: is it correct to say that a tick simply reflects the NUMBERS of participants (buyers and sellers) in the market and that it reflects nothing of the VOLUMES each participant generates? Or is it the case that a tick reflects BOTH the numbers and volumes of each participant?

I will appreciate your input on this please.

Thanks a lot.

With regards,
Pedigree

It clears up a couple of issues I have been struggling with since Banteka's posts and I'm sure others will be helped by it too.

[lilac]

I see those M on EUR and GBP against USD are starting to go down on M15, but they may wait for US news later to push that down move, and now catch more buy orders before dropping it?

Did you notice the huge gap on all NZD pairs?

[FlyHighDrifter]

I see those M on EUR and GBP against USD are starting to go down on M15, but they may wait for US news later to push that down move, and now catch more buy orders before dropping it?

At the moment this echoes my thoughts... just being a little cautious as there will be plenty of orders for them to 'ping' at around 1.3345 and maybe even 1.3415 (EU) before a significant drop.... how high will it go first?!

Fly

[lilac]

Is this EURCAD telling "sell me"? It's pinning on D1 and it looks like there is confluence on lower TF now for a leg down. The thing is today is a holiday in Canada, so it may not move much?

EURCAD-5aug13.png

It seems quite today in general. I see an M forming on gold and silver too, but little volume, so don't know. Maybe august is not the greatest month to trade...

[lilac]

They are already dropping the euro. Do you think they will still bounce it up before, or maybe after US news? We could grab higher sells if they do.

[FlyHighDrifter]

They are already dropping the euro. Do you think they will still bounce it up before, or maybe after US news? We could grab higher sells if they do.

It's entirely possible - what timeframe are you trading? I have a longer term short running that I'm holding until 1.3000 all being well so I'm not concerned... but I have already taken my 15m shorter timeframe trade off the table for 35pips... There has been a textbook shot at grabbing 50 already today. I guess it depends on your style/time frame preference mate,

Fly

EDIT: just to clarify, I am not suggesting price is heading straight down to 1.3000 now, I'm saying that I have a longer term 'anchor' trade on that is already in profit so it can withstand some movement higher should it go that way in the next hour or so

[xrismak]

I see those M on EUR and GBP against USD are starting to go down on M15, but they may wait for US news later to push that down move, and now catch more buy orders before dropping it?

Did you notice the huge gap on all NZD pairs?

Lilac,

I have Noticed the Gap too, I am Actually Trading one of the Pairs Live as at the Time of Writing this Piece and Here's my Analysis on the Chart Below, I might be Wrong but I'd Like to see where I have gone Wrong and Learn from my Mistake, Only Time will Tell.

Happy Trading Y'all,

xrismak

[lilac]

I have sells on EURUSD, EURCAD and GBPUSD. I believe the last 2 will go pretty much down in the following hours/days. But not so sure if they will bring EURUSD up further than 1.33 or not, if they do I will sell it there again, I think I see the new short cycle beginning on the D1.

[lilac]

I see those M on EUR and GBP against USD are starting to go down on M15, but they may wait for US news later to push that down move, and now catch more buy orders before dropping it?

Did you notice the huge gap on all NZD pairs?

Lilac,

I have Noticed the Gap too, I am Actually Trading one of the Pairs Live as at the Time of Writing this Piece and Here's my Analysis on the Chart Below, I might be Wrong but I'd Like to see where I have gone Wrong and Learn from my Mistake, Only Time will Tell.

Happy Trading Y'all,

xrismak

Hey, It did go up. I didn't take that one, I thought it could go lower, didn't understand why the gap was so to the low, I guess they just wanted to buy cheaper before bringing it up.

I should try more M15 shorter trades, the thing is the patterns and pins there are not always so clear and reliable, I always look for confluence of M15 with H1, H4 and D1 direction, but still have a lot of doubts about the real direction the fox is going to take, specially on shorter TF.