The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Ingot54]

Always educational to read through other peoples thought process. Many thanks for taking the time Mike,

Regards,
Fly

I totally endorse that Fly. Thank you Mike - I always find your contributions challenge my thinking.

If I may, I am wondering why you use the MMA's?

I ask because we fox-watchers are really not looking for the trend (as Naked Traders) because the PA is going to show us the likely turning points/entry points, not the MA. And if we are going to grab 20 ... 30 ... 50 pips, then the trend is not going to interest us. That's not a personal jibe, Mike - but an observation generally (the Internet doesn't print voice inflection, questioning tones etc )

Your analysis is always much deeper than mine, and not-to-be-missed.

I have progressed so much faster since moving away from everything (ie indicators) I used to love to see on my charts. There are still useful things that assist, of course, but they should not take away focus from price - if they do, then for me, they get retired. I like to see ADR so I can have a little more confidence when I see an M or a W, or RRT's at those extremes. But even ADR is highly variable and can never be more than mildly confirmatory, and it too is really not indispensable.

So I understand if you have tools that also assist with focusing the cross-wires. It's a fine line sometimes, but as a rule of thumb, for me, if I find I am looking too much at anything but the price, then I remove it.

[Ingot54]

Really Just a bit of guess work here, but CHFJPY on the m15. Long in a little bit after the 105.00 orders get popped?

Early days yet, Cilano, but I can see the three pushes down, and I think you are identifying a possible setup.

Keep your eyes also (as you already know) on the higher TF to check for RRT's and pinning, and this should lead you to good setups (there are plenty).

As we are in the Asian session, we can expect to see the setting of the high and low of the day, before the break-and-stopout run (25 - 50 pips). Doesn't always happen as planned though.

But we are seeing trapping volume in this pair now, as the fox rips the bears and sucks in the bulls as he accumulates volume for the true move later. watch for the stop-hunt and you shouldn't go too far wrong with it.

Thanks for sharing - my input is of limited value ... still learning.

[mjws00]

I don't use those MA's as most do and I certainly wouldn't have anyone add them to a chart. I just get sick of changing charts so they can be posted in purity.

It isn't that uncommon to see a 10s chart up on my screen. In that case I am watching the waves expand and contract as buying and selling pressure moves. On those micro time frames the shorter MA's are actually more volatile than say 1M price, and I can see and feel the market. I relate it to how each and every bar is being built on the larger frames. Remember I said 'feel' player.

In addition I use the MA's to show me what price is doing on different time frames. I know where we've come from in the bigger picture at all times. I also use them as reference for where the fox may do business. I am constantly thinking about what the prey is experiencing. What are they watching, where is the fox most likely to exploit them.

I've gone through the exercise of trading naked. But I was never an indicator guy in the first place, so that isn't where CJ's wisdom added to my edge. Perspective and model are what resonated. I appreciate genius when I see it. It is my very humble opinion that CJ has integrated all of the way points he needs into his subconscious already. I haven't hit that level of mastery.

I've spent 1000's of hours watching ticks grow into bars. I tend to treat trading as I would any other professional or extreme sport. I practice, I study, I work on different aspects of the game. I look at my weaknesses. But when you are in the game there is only focus. The intent is "FLOW". Might sound hoaky... but for those that do anything at a very high level will understand immediately. There is no thought and no time. You just let yourself do what you have done a million times. In the moment. That is my favorite state. Fear, Greed, and Manipulation does not exist there.

Trading is bizarre in that there is so much waiting one can not really maintain those high levels of concentration and performance effectively. One must slip in and out.

There may come a day, when I ditch those MA's. But they are a bit like a favorite pair of driving gloves. Or that perfect golf club you hit pure every time. Just ignore everything until you get that connection to the other side. Once there I believe it is safe to evaluate what works for your style.

Mike

[mjws00]

UJ. Another easy one. Sometimes I don't mind trading that W back down. Especially if there is a chance it may continue.

Sorry, my real time signal days are over. We did a LOT of this early in the thread. These little guys are too quick any way. But you can see em a couple minutes later if I ain't too busy.

Mike

[ciliano]

The intent is "FLOW".

I was just thinking about this while I was massaging a bunch of kale. It is like I have heard people describe acting. Read the script over and over, completely memorize it. And then forget everything and just internalize your character so you know how the character would react in this situation without needing a script.

That is kind of a level I would like to get with naked trading. Memorize all the setups and the lead-ins and what the market or market maker is doing and be able to see each of these things. Then forget the patterns and just feel what the market is doing.


Also, different subject. I STRONGLY suggest reading forexfux's "the fox and the market" thread in this subforum if anyone has not. It helps shed light on a lot of the "why" (market structure) that relates to the "what" (price movement) we see in this thread.

[mjws00]

Here is one that keeps catching my eye. I'd be mighty comfortable short from 0.8980.

But good chance I'm late to the party. So the question is... Is there a viable breakout trade below 0.8950 for that stop run. Lots of room down, and weak longs to burn.

Mike

[ciliano]

Here is one that keeps catching my eye.
Mike

I see that M too and the cute little breaks of the 0.9000 level but it is troubling to me. I feel like the M is in the wrong place. It is not at the end of a 3 level cycle which is where you are supposed to find those (though I know none of the "rules" are universal rules). I am not confident in what I have here but it is an alternative suggestion.

edit: It could also be that they spiked those pin bars into the 0.9000 level to:
1. Test the resistance there
2. Demonstrate resistance (twice) so that people have a false sense of security about shorting into what might seem like a fill of the liquidity gap represented by the long upward bar leading into this M.

People placed their stops above the pin bars and above 0.9000 and the fox got into buy positions on the other side of folks selling down from the level. Now at some point the fox may try to fire through that resistance and cause a stop cascade sending price up even more as fox exits its positions.

Put a horizontal line on the chart at .9005 or .9006 and go look at the stop hunts on either side on July 31

I guess treat this more as my own thought exercise than actual predictions.

swinglow.PNG

[Ingot54]

Thank you Mike - I always find your contributions challenge my thinking.

If I may, I am wondering why you use the MMA's?

I don't use those MA's as most do and I certainly wouldn't have anyone add them to a chart.

... I am watching the waves expand and contract as buying and selling pressure moves. ... and I can see and feel the market. I relate it to how each and every bar is being built on the larger frames. Remember I said 'feel' player.

I know where we've come from in the bigger picture at all times. I also use them as reference for where the fox may do business. I am constantly thinking about what the prey is experiencing. What are they watching, where is the fox most likely to exploit them.
... I was never an indicator guy in the first place, so that isn't where CJ's wisdom added to my edge. Perspective and model are what resonated. I appreciate genius when I see it. It is my very humble opinion that CJ has integrated all of the way points he needs into his subconscious already. I haven't hit that level of mastery.

I tend to treat trading as I would any other professional or extreme sport. I practice, I study, I work on different aspects of the game. I look at my weaknesses. But when you are in the game there is only focus. The intent is "FLOW" ... for those that do anything at a very high level will understand immediately. There is no thought and no time. You just let yourself do what you have done a million times. In the moment.

There may come a day, when I ditch those MA's. But they are a bit like a favorite pair of driving gloves. Or that perfect golf club you hit pure every time. Just ignore everything until you get that connection to the other side. Once there I believe it is safe to evaluate what works for your style.

Mike

That's an A1 response - thank you Mike. I couldn't shorten it any further (for brevity).

I understand part of what you are saying, but it will take more time yet for me to "know" where you are at with this. Your posts are always adding something to traders knowledge, and I can only add my thanks to that of others who also appreciate the great teaching we receive freely here, from CJ, and yourself, and many others.

btw ... if you flip out to the 4H chart, you may decide that there is a bit in the AUDUSD trade yet. I'm not certain if it's a W or an M, but a tight stop should keep it safe. Currently price has moved only 20 pips ... and I think there is quite a bit more in it yet. And .8965 is proving to be a bit stubborn since the recent move down from .8971.

EDIT: There are far better setups coming - I wouldn't persist with this - not a good entry.

[mjws00]

Heh. Ivan, there ain't many who will ever "know" where I'm at. It is a strange and wondrous place.

This is the one thread where I let my hair down, and enjoy thinking about things unconventionally. I love it when we get more brain power on board. Nothing in trading has ever hit me like the quantum leaps I made here early in the year. "Naked" had little to do with it. A glimpse of talent and genius, did.

It's fun watching the lights go on for folks. I can't say enough times. Post your charts and trades, the process of explaining things will help immensely. Right or wrong is not relevant.

Mike

[kwanann]

I concur with Mike that AU short is a high possibility,

Here's why i think so

On H4, we have a 3 push down and possibly a level forming

AUDUSD.PNG

On H1, the M formation

AUDUSD.PNG

On M15
A M formation , accumulation that looks like W but with the highs not taken out

Either way, all seems in order for AUDUSD to go down


In fact, with most of the xxxUSD pairs, it seems they are all poised for shorting