The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[mjws00]

AU matched up pretty well. Forgive the quick profits, ya'll can stick around for more.

Wished I would have sold GJ yesterday. Niceee.

Mike

[banteka]

AU matched up pretty well. Forgive the quick profits, ya'll can stick around for more.

Wished I would have sold GJ yesterday. Niceee.

Mike

In my opinion, and as I see in the H1 chart, AUD/USD is in its FIRST DAY of a new BULLISH cycle. You are watching now at a new deception of the FOX.

You should set your M15 chart in order to see a complete week. The Zoom is not correct. I use to set the zoom to -4.
There you will clearly see the whole cycle: W at the bottom and a new day.

[mjws00]

The zoom is set so the chart can be read when it is posted. Can't see wicks zoomed out more.

The AUD trade was just sitting in front of me. So I threw it up here for fun. No long term implications Just what it looked like price might do. It worked perfectly and paid me. Deception or real move. I don't care as long as I can read it.

Sometimes I trade for the longer swing, but right now I am trading heavy with quick profits.

You have a great run going, keep it up.

Mike

[kwanann]

@Banteka: Good call! Entry at 2nd leg of w would have easily netted you 40pips by now

Actually it all depends on what you are trading, i've shorted AU and still got out in green. Could have swung it the other way round if i was brave enough

AUDUSD.PNG

@Lilac: Yup nasty spike down before sending everything shooting back up, still a nice 150pips from asian high to day lo. Nice upswing as well for another 250pips if you caught it

GBPUSD.png

@Pedigree

You are right, somehow i got my application of NT totally wrong. Going to stay in demo till i figure this whole thing out and get consistent results. Which pair to trade no longer matters anymore, its the application of the red pill which yields consistent results

[Pedigree]

In my opinion, and as I see in the H1 chart, AUD/USD is in its FIRST DAY of a new BULLISH cycle.

Spot on!

In fact, I started buying AUD (against GBP) since yesterday when it became clear that it was strengthening and have since then made over 500 pips from it!

My enthusiasm for NT is growing by the day, spiked by loads of excitement at the prospect of what must be in store. As at now CSS has AUD as the weakest currency, but it's been clear from NT that it is firming up and that, at least for the short term if not longer, it should be bought.

It verifies what Kwanann said in his 101 thread about this:

"...naked trading doesn't care about 240, we just go with the flow. In a typical case we will detect a trend change at least 200pips before the 240ma does".

This is so true and it just excites the daylights out of me!!! And this is not to take anything away from the 240 or the CSS, but rather to show how NT helps them along and makes it possible to trade against the direction they indicate when possible, and to do it without any qualms.


@Kwanann
I hope the demo experiment will not be a protracted one. It's always good to have something to lose in a trade, no matter how small. The attitude in demo trading is just not the same as in live trading and I'm not sure it's really conducive to real learning. It's why I pay next to no attention to any published demo results.

[mjws00]

JPY pairs painted quite nicely so far. We have another news opp, and Frankie then London. So this could easily do it again.

I blew the entry on EURJPY. Normally I would have sold that second leg as well and ended up with a nice avg cost. An entry one swing early isn't rare for me, but I do encounter it less often these days. Instead, I decided to play by my self imposed rules and not add.

It was a truly beautiful set of bear traps at in the middle of this M. Perfectly timed with news, not too spikey, just suck in the masses, and shift away. Stop em out above the round number. If they were lacking volume, this easily could have run to 129.25+ to get new BO longs and a different set of short stops (possibly mine.)

Oh well. They can't all be picture perfect. Good hunting. I've pretty much hit my targets and may sleep.

Mike

[mjws00]

Sometimes is is hard to do these pretty in real time. Another ugly one. There was a really nice entry on that huge pin to be had, I shouldn't have hesitated. But I waited for a little more info from AUDUSD and it made the trade dangerous.

There was no second leg to sell.

Mike

[Ozstyle]

I feel like I am getting pretty decent at identifying patterns and reversals, etc... Unfortunately, I am absolute trash with discipline about taking only the best trades ... .

This is the aspect that I fall down the most in also. The biggest problem with my trading at the moment is "me". I am identify the levels and high probability points of manipulation by the fox but mentally when sitting in front of the screen I am still getting suckered in too early by the fox and taking sub-par set-ups thinking I will miss out. I get stopped out a couple of times and get trigger shy when I get a nice set-up at the original level I was looking at. The vicious cycle then starts again!

Very frustrating. I think it was Ingot54 who may have said last week words to the effect of "so close but so far away" ... spot on.

Anyway from what CJ and others have been kind enough to post and through things I have seen in my "day job", I believe the markets are manipulated and those who work hard enough at spotting the signs will get there.

Thanks to all, just thought I would share my frustrations. Time for another scotch (no trading for me tonight).

Cheers,
Ozzy

[banteka]

Hello friends:

Last night I was hit by the FOX...FIVE TIMES: GBPAUD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, AUDCAD and AUDCHF (you can check it in my MYFXBOOK public account).
I saw a very interesting setup in the five pairs and all of them were perfectly synchronized.
I identified these setups because of this reasons:

1.- An important release would occur in AUD
2.- Only 15 minutes AFTER the NY session, it appeared a very short candle but with a very unusual SPREAD. Apparently, this was a normal candle. The next was a normal one with a normal SPREAD. So I thought that a BEARISH CANDLE with HIGH SPREAD (and VOLUME) and just AFTER THE NY SESSION and with an IMPORTANT RELEASE in the near future were enough reasons for enter LONG. In the same way, BULLISH CANDLE with HIGH SPREAD (and VOLUME) and just AFTER THE NY SESSION and with an IMPORTANT RELEASE in the near future were enough reasons for enter SHORT.
3.- That candle appeared IN THE FIVE PAIRS AT ONCE (check the charts, the candle just after the end of the NY session).

But my mistake was to set STOP LOSSES. And they were not very tight. 30 PIPS and up.
But my broker widened the spread more than 10 times the normal value. For instance, AUDUSD was widened from a normal value of 2.0 to... 30.00!!!!. Fifteen times the normal!!!. Fortunately I was recording the spread with the indicator suggested by lara and this morning I figured out the reason.

The five trades were winners and the setups were correct...but my stop losses were hit by the FOX just while the release.

I only can share with all of you this experience. You should pay more attention to your broker's spread handling. Mine is absolutely shameful.

I have recorded three videos (in spanish) explaining the issue:

VIDEO 1

VIDEO 2

VIDEO 3

Now I have added to my charts the SPREAD INDICATOR (I hope no bother) because it helps me to identify the fox's intentions.

I have to mention that this is an experiment. The first time it worked, but I want to try again the setup. Who knows if we have discovered a new one!.

Tonight there is another important release in AUD. I am waiting for a good setup based upon those signals. And this time I won't set the stop losses.

I remember you can follow my trades in MYFXBOOK.

Stay tuned.

[Lara]

[quote="banteka"]


But my broker widened the spread more than 10 times the normal value. For instance, AUDUSD was widened from a normal value of 2.0 to... 30.00!!!!. Fifteen times the normal!!!. Fortunately I was recording the spread with the indicator suggested by lara and this morning I figured out the reason.

The five trades were winners and the setups were correct...but my stop losses were hit by the FOX just while the release.

I only can share with all of you this experience. You should pay more attention to your broker's spread handling. Mine is absolutely shameful.


Glad it helped Banteka. CJ mentions the "silent assassin" all through the thread. For the benefit of those who haven't finished reading this treasure chest here are some interesting extracts from CJ:


"ECN brokers have the widest spread swings on the planet, blaming liquidity when a 60pip spike takes out your trade. . Staying with a fixed spread broker gives some protection from these guys but you pay a little more for each trade. In my trading, I use no stops for 99% of my trades........."

And:

"Word of advice though, don't put a trade on like this anywhere near the time when spreads flare out. Your broker will take your SL with the widened spread and this is especially true for ECN brokers....."

And:

"When you do start tagging along, understand that you will never get in at the top or bottom of one of those price spikes. When they spike price they also widen the bid ask spread. A spike high will trigger sell stops, but not TP targets or SL. A spike low will trigger buy stops, but not TP or SL stops. get the point? You never see your order at the top of those spikes. During the EURGBP stop hunt, I'm trading for 2-7 pips while the spread is eating 5 at times........."

And:

"If the spreads were not manipulated as they were, my "demo" account would be up over 500% instead if 350%. Part of the game though and nothing more than the cost of doing business with them....."

And........ my personal favourite and the piece which made me believe that all I had learned about "news" up until this point was FALSE (there is a lovely word to describe this from the Greek - peripeteia):

"What's really unbelievable is what happens during the news spikes and stop hunts. Your platform usually freezes when they do it, but 50-60 pip spread during "news" in common. It isn't news that spikes price, it's the market maker who only uses news to cover his tracks.

Watch this happen when they are spiking price during a news event. You will see spread widen at the extreme and come back in line when they are ready to move price the other way..."

Lara