The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[lilac]

GBPUSD short setup, second leg of M

I thought GU could go down too. as well as EU. I think I can identify the RRT, W and M patterns, but I am failing to correctly identify the levels and the cycles.

EU broke to the high after asia, there was a peak high and yet it went up, why? were there more or bigger sell stops available than buy stops, so buying was more profitable for the fox than selling? they pushed price up to nearly 1.34 using news, one may think we could be near a reversal looking at the EU D1 chart, but if you look at the GU D1 chart... I don't know what to think.

I think I should not expect anything just because I identified a pattern in one or two TF, as this may be just part of a higher TF pattern pointing the opposite and I may not have identified that correctly, or maybe these patterns get broken or distorted when the fox wants to grab something at a specific point?

I believe I am missing important signs here that determine which way price will finally go, if it is the cycle flow and the levels identification, or the available volume (sell & buy stops) for the fox to consume and signs to identify this, I don't know, but I will find out.

I am reading with great interest these 2 threads: "The fox and the market" and "Naked Trading 101" and not actively trading, just observing. I found myself expecting things when having open live trades, and when not trading live I can better focus on trying to find out these two things:

- What is the fox really hunting at a specific accumulation area, offers or bids, and why?
- Where is he placing his bids or his offers of the positions he has been building?

[banteka]

Thank you lara. Very interesting post.

The setup has appeared, as yesterday and in the same currencies:

1.- Important release in about 4 hours
2.- Just after NY closing, little candle with many SPREAD and volume increasing significantly.
3.- The setup has appeared simultaneously in the SIX AUD PAIRS.

I entered as follows:

AUDJPY, AUDCAD, AUDUSD and AUDCHF: LONG
EURAUD and GBPAUD: SHORT

This setup could have given me yesterday many profits but for the stop losses hit.
This time no stop loss.

REMEMBER:

1.- My account IS A DEMO ONE
2.- THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT

[ciliano]

Hey Lilac,

On the EURUSD put a horizontal line where price spiked today. Follow that line back and look at June 19, 2013; Feburary 2013; End of March 2012 and end of February 2012.

It is an area of interest. Since it broke it so hard in Jan-Feb 2013 and only poked it's head over in June, I am kind of expecting it to break 1.3400 only slightly in between two and seven hours from now and then drop back down to show a pin on the D1.

I don't see a perfect level cycle either really but I do see pins forming in a historical area of interest as well as a solid round number.

GBPUSD kind of looks like it had a similar H, HH and LH on the D1 at beginning of May, June 17 and right now. As well as a stop hunt yesterday

Edit: Just beware of stop hunts before the move on EURUSD because as has been mentioned and as I have learned, the pair is more unpredictable

[kwanann]

Actually as long as you are actively managing your trades, there should not be any need for SL. Or alternatively if you are playing in the direction of a longer tf trend e.g h4 aud is long, you enter long on m15, you are pretty safe, there might be dd but you should come out ok in the end

If you are "ct" trading or trading the stop hunts or going to afk a long time, SL might be good protection in case prices goes away from you..

E.g my trades yesterday were trading all the stop hunts and in opposite direction of where price should be going, as expected all the SL were hit.

The SH entries were nice, had dd of less than 20pips for 5 trades, went into approx 50pips profit and then price turned

Today.s experiment would be a confirmation of one of my usual trading style that will go into severe dd but still profitable in the end. No SL, based on the trend is my friend

Next week I will still run a few daily experiments before starting out proper maybe the week after where it will be proper nt

[seanyd]

Tá brón orm ach má táimid ag dul go dtí an iar inár dteanga dhúchais, is é seo pointless, is é seo an fóram ina labhraítear Béarla, a roinnt le gach duine, tá a n-aon phointe i gach duine stuif phost ina dteanga, tá conas gach duine ceaptha a fhoghlaim

Just wondering, are those characters native to your keyboard or do you have to type some wierd combination to get them in?

Yes ctrl and alt plus the letter ,

but the point I was trying to make Banteka was I would really love to watch these videos in English as i`m sure alot of others would also and posting them in Spanish and trying to watch them
with the caption thingy is hopeless and really frustrating

I even tried to get a guy to translate them but $150 a video is ridiculous ,

[banteka]

Thank you lara. Very interesting post.

The setup has appeared, as yesterday and in the same currencies:

1.- Important release in about 4 hours
2.- Just after NY closing, little candle with many SPREAD and volume increasing significantly.
3.- The setup has appeared simultaneously in the SIX AUD PAIRS.

I entered as follows:

AUDJPY, AUDCAD, AUDUSD and AUDCHF: LONG
EURAUD and GBPAUD: SHORT

This setup could have given me yesterday many profits but for the stop losses hit.
This time no stop loss.

REMEMBER:

1.- My account IS A DEMO ONE
2.- THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT

The release has just finished. There's exhaustion in the market. Closing the six trades with a decent profit. The price has gone to the expected direction and the setup seems to work although it requires more testing.

[Pedigree]

This is a wonderfully useful utility I found on FF that I think no trader here should be without. Have the pleasure of discovering it yourself!

[kwanann]

Interesting stuff pedigree, I use sm bcp which is slightly similar but doesn't give so much info and doesn't trail

Just checked my trades, aj closed at 50, au seems to have reached exhaustion and cj might be at the crossroads of a m so all 3 closed. Left gu to run. As expected, the p/l curve was ridiculous. Small dd initially, went green 50pips, turned around and went red 50pips before going where it was supposed to go.. Ie if I TP at mid Asian, took the same positions, I would have TP a second time. This is inline with what I expected. Price revisits level in the Asian session and is how I used to trade the Asian

Left gu on the line with a slightly higher TP level, it's Friday so let's see..

[lilac]

Ciliano, thanks for the hints. I expect the same, looks like EU will not go much further than 1.34 and around, but on the other hand I didn't expect GU to turn up where it did this days before. So they could as well send EU to those high prices in january, I don't know.

The thing is the fox may decide where to go depending on the available liquidity, and august is not a very normal month as many investors are on holiday, so caution.

[Pedigree]

Interesting stuff pedigree, I use sm bcp which is slightly similar but doesn't give so much info and doesn't trail

You will recall we had a discussion on swap sometime ago:

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 516#p67516

I wondered then where you got your info from.

This utility places it right on your chart so if you plan to keep a position overnight you can immediately see if you are going to pay your broker or he's going to pay you and how much. This can be quite significant if you are playing large lots.

But the alert it can give for a set minimum margin level is the reason I searched and found it. I've been looking for this for quite a while.