The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[kwanann]

One thing about m and w, it's always tricky cos you can tell for sure. Tats why other stuff comes into play as well. Is it the end of a 3 day cycle, was there a reversal, mid week perhaps, is price at some previous peak etc etc

Once all these click into place then it's a high chance that's a m

That said.. Based on m15 my bias is long. Mm pushed it up the first round, everyone else seems to want this to go up, so it's been steadily going up, some small SH to bring some things in order

It's now at 0.85 so they might give it some time here to butcher everyone get everyone and get everyone on the right trap before springing the surprise. I would expect a nice spiky both sides to clear everyone before they go their merry way..

Remember those dudes want your dough, there is no big and long candle consistent with their behavior yet

[kwanann]

Like mike says, really brings. Smile to my face when I see those mm in action.

Yep. There is some really nice work out there right now. I been smiling a LOT.

Good to see you are getting some of your groove back, K. We all hit those patches where we lose our 'sync' and end up struggling.

Thought I was selling into you last night (LON) on AU. But I see you were short from higher up.

Been a mellow week for me so far. Had some good reads, but they have chopped em up long enough for me to punch out with small wins. I need a beach house in Spain or Greece.

Mike

Thx

I chickened out at l2, would have been a nice 50% increase for pretty much hands off trading if I was confident enough, thing was, the past few cycles, l3 always had a violent reversal that I might be at the short end of

Think this might work out for me nicely, find the reversal pattern, trade it straight for 3 days or so, TP at 3xadr, or go in at the end of l1 and hit the next 2 days.

I just spend probably less than an hour each day, forcing myself NOT to keep looking at the charts (do you know how psychologically damaging it is to see your 1k pip reduced to nothing? Of course you do!) and just trust in the fox

Next step, pulling cj's ultimate move, getting broker to close my trades!

[cace2004]

USDJPY, is it a good time to short now? some pins on the 4H chart and M on 15m chart.Could somebody advise? I appreciate it!

[hodgires]

Cece....i think usdjpy will continue to either 99.00 and then reverse or till 99.99 before reverse. I am only seeing two legs of the 3 pushes so far. However, i may be wrong.

hres

[Wapen]

Hi All, here is a indicator that will draw your trading blocks based on the diverint trading sessions. You just need to set your start time for the diverint zones and the color you would like.

[Larryk]

I am fascinated by the possibilities of being able to trade more or less in the same direction as the MM's.

I find it difficult to understand how they are going about their manipulations in order to mislead and profit thereby. Apart from the pathetic small amounts that we trade, there are huge movements of currency everyday as a result of international trade and investment, then the MM's themselves take huge positions one way or another , basically between themselves on there own behalf or on behalf of their clients.

So how do they go about the deception, seeing as they have to take the other side of our trades. To get us to buy they have to somehow get those prices to move up by selling at ever higher prices, how do they reverse that process having got us all aboard the northbound train?

Any takers for an explanation, ex bank traders out there?

[banteka]

So how do they go about the deception, seeing as they have to take the other side of our trades. To get us to buy they have to somehow get those prices to move up by selling at ever higher prices, how do they reverse that process having got us all aboard the northbound train?

Any takers for an explanation, ex bank traders out there?

Check this link. Read the last answer by Scott Tuddenham.

This interesting information was posted yesterday by ciliano

I found this article in the BARF thread pdf that was posted here. It was very interesting and is a similar exposition on trading by piggybacking on the major banks.
http://www.moneyshow.com/trading/articl ... FXbiwkly08

[mjws00]

LOL. I hate reading those fricken blogs broken out page by page.

But I feel like an idiot for skipping this one now. CJ could have written that article, and I have literally marked up hundreds of charts like his picture at the end. Excellent material, and a great explanation of the mechanics of the banks manipulation. Exactly what the doctor ordered.

Glad this was posted again and I saw it on the flipside. Thanks guys.

Mike

P.S. There is a pdf of the entire interview at the end to skip the blog ad bs
PDF of Transcript

[Ingot54]

Lots of long wicks on the USDJPY at the moment, but it bothers me that the PA is right about mid-range. If you look at the 4H between 7th April and today, you can easily see that (zoom out a bit). Even the Daily is showing a nice RRT.

Dropping to the 1H we have the second leg of the "M" already well developed, and back at support, though I don't let "support" get in the way of a trade. We are also only20 pips above the "))" round figure, so I would probably want to see that broken and tested too.

I'm hard to please on this - I guess the old way of looking at trading still has a very strong grip on me, else I would not be worried by such things as support, round numbers, and so on. And I didn't want to mention the overhead trend line on 4H . which is currently about 70 pips above price ... so I won't

The questions I am asking myself are:

What does the MM want me to think?
Where is price really headed?

Other answers I need are: Has there been a stop-hunt anywhere, and what level are we at?

I can only see a 2-level push up on the 1H, as what might have counted as the first push, starting on 12th August, was negated by pulling nearly all the way back (in my view).

I feel this trade will need a spike higher to take out the bears jumping in, and the bulls beginning to have sweaty palms. So the bulls will need to sweat more yet, before they capitulate, and then the bears get garrotted. After that, I am free to short the guts out of it.

Am I confusing myself with over analysis here? Lately I can not find a trade, though I often see I have missed some.

Thoughts?

[Ingot54]

The idea of that rectangle rubbish is not to introduce anything new, but to show that price really is mid-range, and is at a place where I would rather walk away. I like to find trades at highs and lows ... not in the middle of the range. From where it is, price could easily go to previous highs, or previous lows, and no one would be surprised.

Am I being too picky about it?

Maybe I need to drop down to 15M and forget the higher TF occasionally?