The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[milanese]

Paul(Baluda) has done this days some updates with the LibCSS http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =45&t=2905 and too updated some of his famous indicators http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... f=45&t=629, now all is running much faster with much less CPU consuming, worth to take a look

Cheers and good trading

Tommaso

[banteka]

Maybe today we have an opportunity to trade in good conditions, at least EU and GU

[banteka]

Thanks for your thoughts Banteka. I was already short on EU at 1.3351, and suffering a little, I should have waited for the RRT to form.

I hold since It looks like it would go down after that break up.

Now is time for M formations...
And don't forget one thing: once the HOD (High Of the Day) is established, the path is to the LOD (Low Of the Day)
As the day has begun with good signals, is good to mention that now we should see three pushes to the low, each one of them with a consolidation period. These three pushes in the London session. And then, in the NY session maybe a reversal appears.
The daily cycle is in front of our eyes...

[banteka]

Yes, should wait for RRT and M signs.
This first up move today is very tricky because it has bullish volume too, so I would have been better buying it instead of going short where I did.

Edit: It looks like the HOD is 1.3406, but they can always decide to retest previous month high 1.3416 since it's very near. The hardest part is to pick up the real peak high or peak low.

Now 'M' in construction. In about 30-45 minutes we should be trading...

[lilac]

You mean the M on M15? Do you expect it to retest the high 1.3406 or will it make the second peak lower (or higher)?

[banteka]

You mean the M on M15? Do you expect it to retest the high 1.3406 or will it make the second peak lower (or higher)?

Yes, in M15. If the MMs have enough traders trapped, they won't try again that price because traders could escape. If not, they will try again and they could reach 25 pips more than that price in order to trap more traders in their longs.
The M should already have been formed. I think MMs are going to wait till the NY session to try again...
Note how after 5 candles they are rising again...

[lilac]

I admire your confidence. I fear because they can always create liquidity gaps if they want to, even with very little volume. I find these last days quite tricky and unpredictable, maybe due to lack of volume.

I fear but I hold, it will eventully go down, although I would have been better buying that stop hunt up, yesterday I went out of 2 very good trades just before they started going my way, and I felt very stupid.

Edit: Although it looks like going down, on H1 it could be an up cycle started on 15 august L1, and now it reached L2. But I don't know since I am still unable to identify the correct cycles and levels, which is the reason of my failure, along with fear.

[lilac]

Yeah, I am looking very closely, and if it doesn't go down in the following hours, I will close my loss. There was news on USD, "Chicago Fed National Activity Index", result was a little better for USD, and yet they used it to rise EUR and drop USD. Redbook index results were slightly worse for USD. The thing is USD is so weak for so long, always bad results... How can we expect to short anything against such a lame.

I begin to think the fox will just bring price where they can profit the most depending on their book, regardless anything else, so if EU is been so long in an uptrend, price is high, everybody is short, little demand and little volume in general, maybe the best way to profit was to trap all the shorts and bring price up there.

Who knows... Anyway this will be my last live trade. I start all over again in demo, and will trust volume signs more, as those were warning a bullish move since erlier this morning. A M can very quickly turn to a W, and if not they don't care, they will bring price wherever they want because they can, regardless of any patterns.

[pips400]

I think so much was accummulated over last couple of days, only needed a small break below asian, before accelerated move of day to sell off their accummulated net longs into the buying pressure. Now we have completed 3rd push of day, and I'm guessing fox is going to need to accummulate again.

Looks like there's a fine line between a stop hunt and a genuine move.

[kwanann]

Actually another easy way to count. See how many pips is the first move, the last move should generally be in the same range. Eu first level was about 150pips, so u shld expect something similar for the 3rd push. Either way, 3rd push complete = retrace so can take that for a few pips