The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[kwanann]

Yeah, I am looking very closely, and if it doesn't go down in the following hours, I will close my loss. There was news on USD, "Chicago Fed National Activity Index", result was a little better for USD, and yet they used it to rise EUR and drop USD. Redbook index results were slightly worse for USD. The thing is USD is so weak for so long, always bad results... How can we expect to short anything against such a lame.

I begin to think the fox will just bring price where they can profit the most depending on their book, regardless anything else, so if EU is been so long in an uptrend, price is high, everybody is short, little demand and little volume in general, maybe the best way to profit was to trap all the shorts and bring price up there.

Who knows... Anyway this will be my last live trade. I start all over again in demo, and will trust volume signs more, as those were warning a bullish move since erlier this morning. A M can very quickly turn to a W, and if not they don't care, they will bring price wherever they want because they can, regardless of any patterns.

One thing.. Trust PA, news events only reinforce PA.

Actually I.m finding this whole demo trading quite interesting. I can experiment all I want and take only thr choicest trades on live.

What I really like about NT in its purest form is the very small DD. look at my fxbook, I have close to 3 lots in play on a 1k account and my dd is.. Er.. 100pips or approx 100$

[Ingot54]

One of our clients pointed me in the direction of this video series by daytradingforexlive.com which is in line with the thoughts in this thread. I just watched the first .. Going to watch the next two tonight. Looks good!

Forex Trend Trading Strategy - Part 1
Forex Trend Trading Strategy - Part 2
Forex Trend Trading Strategy - Part 3

Cheers,
Jeremy

Thank you Jeremy. I watched the first one too, and will follow right through on the other two.

I'll tell you why. Each person who speaks/teaches/produces videos gives their perspective on what the market makers are doing to move price, to fulfill their objectives. If one person is saying it, that has an effect. But if 2, 3 or more people are teaching it, then it has an enormous effect on one's determination to master the strategy for oneself.

Best of all, they simply confirm everything that John has shared with this forum freely. And his sharing is inspiring others to give their insights and share things that are working too.

Proud of and grateful to you all. Gotta find more time!

Hope your trading brings in buckets of pips this week.

Cheers

Ivan

[lilac]

@pisp400 So the fox was taking profits of his old longs while price went up and people was buying his sell stops? these past days there's been more accumulation in the highs than in the lows of the range, that made me think fox was going short soon.

Is today's move just an acceleration of the end of the uptrend? or will crazy fox drive it up to 1.37 now?

@kwanann I trust PA, it's just that I am not yet able to identify the tracks, levels, cycles, etc. correctly... and I don't trust the fox . I agree demo gives you more freedom to experiment and learn from mistakes, specially a newbee like me shouldn't be trading live, although I had some success with NT these last weeks

[pips400]

@pisp400 So the fox was taking profits of his old longs while price went up and people was buying his sell stops? these past days there's been more accumulation in the highs than in the lows of the range, that made me think fox was going short soon.

Is today's move just an acceleration of the end of the uptrend? or will crazy fox drive it up to 1.37 now?

Not sure about buying his sell stops. Think of it like this, the fox has been building a particular net position for a while and no one for sure knows which way he's going to go, because if they did, they'd spoil his plan and he wouldn't be able to accummulate any longer. Possibly this is what may have happened yesterday, where you can see the largest candle H1, with volume, price begins to move upwards, but there is an oversupply flooding the market which prevents the upmove, and keeps price congested. Maybe the fox wasn't ready just yet. Anyway, once he has enough longs, he's ready for momentum and the herd to take price higher. Why, because he can sell his position for more than he paid for it. So as price is moving upwards, he'll use any sell orders coming in to offest, to keep his position longer, but also need to meet demand with his own position, so his position is getting smaller all the time on the way up. Sooner or later he's released all his position, and needs to accummulate again. He'll do this on the way up, during the retrace, but eventually we have reset. Now we can get clever and look for three levels to predict whether the fox is done yet, but ultimately nobody knows for sure, that's why we need to look for things like manipulation, stop hunts, pins etc to help give bias for the next true move. So I wish I could tell you whether the fox will take price to 1.37, because if we knew that, then we'd go long. All I see is that there was a lot of activity today, meaning that the fox has had to meet demand with his supply, but whether he has more to sell, I'm guessing not, so he'll need to accummulate again. I don't think it's really possible to be consistent in knowing during accummulation whether the fox is building long or short.

[mjws00]

Last nights move on EU was std. Pull up a 15 or 30 minute chart, and start scrolling back. You will see this exact pattern dozens of times in the last few months. You are NOT going to see 50 pip stop hunts with a reversal in EU. It hasn't traded like that in months. They are the exception currently not the norm.

Currently Asia hits the stops high, and or low. Frankie hits em on the other side and it runs (or goes sideways in summer doldrums). They trap what they need, and just go. They did this: Yesterday, Monday, Last Friday, Tues, Mon. EVERY single day on the prior week.

The only traditional (50 pip)hunt was last Thurs which was textbook. It ran 100 and got reversed 150.

You can NOT just memorize something simple. 3 push 50 pip stop hunt, paint a pretty M and sell. There are some of these. But the other pattern is just as simple. Frankie tests the Asia range, London turns it around and runs. There are nice RRT's (M or W on 5 Min) on all of these.

The counts are screwed right now. Liquidity is thin, so they can yank it as far as they need to to take your money without the hassle. We have TONS of aggressive spikey action on some pairs. They don't need to print something clever for 3 days if they can just run the stops in a spike, clear the board and accumulate.

The differences in a 4H bar are the nature of the beast. Pick GMT and be done with it. Period.

The trending/ranging indicator is a waste. Unless you wish to switch to a trend following strategy when things are really trending hard. Even then, just be more mindful of which direction you are trading, and trade PA back into the trend, skip or run the counter trades tight. It won't help you see direction and intent. (I kinda like CSS for analyzing the overall market for potential pairs so don't get me wrong. It is a tricky read and can lag and mislead.)

Reading back, I see that post may be rather blunt. My apologies. I see a skew towards adding "junk" and falling into rules based strategy. We want to get inside the head of the folks we are trading against (with?), not fall into familiar traps and rigid thinking.

Just two bits. Seriously, go back and look at the EU 15M chart, with the sessions showing. Just make a tally on how many traditional stop hunts you see. Mark the Frankie Test and Turns. Look for the PA that differentiates. Was July different? Are there nicer patterns in other pairs? (AU or JPY)

You have to be able to see the moves in the past, before you can see the signs on the hard right edge. Even better if you post your thoughts, you'll gain clarity and speed the learning curve. It is the interaction and DOING that is key.

Green pips. It's great to see some folks digging deep.

Mike

[intcust]

I am confused what is the the Frankie Test and Turns? Please enlighten me.

[fahedksa]

I take long trade CADJPY early yesterday because that RRT on 1H time frame after that price goes down and hit SL.
Can you please tell me what i missed here and got into wrong direction?

[mjws00]

Pictures and charts are always best. Here is the current pattern we are seeing often coming out of Asia into FRA/LON. My Frankie Fake and Turn. The name isn't relevant, the move and traps are.

Here are 4 quick ones all EU all 15 min chart. Keep going and you will find 100 of em. There are minor variations... but essentially Asia hits the stops high then low. Frankie fakes a BO... and London gobbles up all the trapped money. They don't need to get fancier with current liquidity.

This is also how the continuation straightaway forms.

As you spot them, you'll see very nice pins, RRT, M, W at the turns. Exactly what we want to trade.

We still get perfect, stop hunt -> Runs but EU and GU are currently quite messy, imho. Lots of truncated runs and spikes to hammer the unwary. AUD has been behaving nicer. As does JPY sometimes... but they are messing with the timing there frequently.

We just have to adapt, and recognize how they are currently taking the money out. They get to mix it up. They aren't exactly getting creative... just the same old thing over and over. Then change up to screw the mechanical traders and weak hands.

Mike

[mjws00]

I take long trade CADJPY early yesterday because that RRT on 1H time frame after that price goes down and hit SL.
Can you please tell me what i missed here and got into wrong direction?

There is a Sweet Pin there. Some nice RRT's and a pretty decent W.

Not a bad place to go long at ALL. IF you bought the "second leg" we always talk about. 30pips no draw down. Worst case should be a BE+ trade. Why take a loss? But you are trading towards the Peak Formation High. They have taken their time to accumulate.... They are unlikely to just turn around and head back. There is no money in that. It undoes all their hard work.

So where is the error?

If we head out to the 1Hr chart. We are in a second leg... and they haven't SLAMMED the breaks on to turn it. Does it really look like that single pin will be a major turn to go long. The last turn took 5 days. Is the board cleared, did they load up long? Have they trapped significant short volume? Nope.

NY didn't seem that serious about running it lower. Just took some low hanging fruit and took it back into the range.

The straightaway was an easy trade (also break of WP). Then we want to be careful about trading back towards the peak formation high. So skip or scalp that W and pin. There is a nice M on 15min to sell there as well to grab the NY move, not to mention it is selling into res, and 94.00. But hindsight is perfect. Take the small win, reverse if you are feeling cocky. But don't let it run to SL... this could go further.

Mike

[kwanann]

I take long trade CADJPY early yesterday because that RRT on 1H time frame after that price goes down and hit SL.
Can you please tell me what i missed here and got into wrong direction?

fahedksa, if you were to zoom out and look at the bigger picture, the M formation was formed just about a day before your trade. This also happened to be at peak high, so you should be looking at short positions. Actually if you were to take that long there, you would still be in some profit before going in the red. You had 2 candles or approx half an hour to pull your trade in profit before it went south

Pictures and charts are always best. Here is the current pattern we are seeing often coming out of Asia into FRA/LON. My Frankie Fake and Turn. The name isn't relevant, the move and traps are.
Mike

Interesting name Mike!

I just marked em as straightaway on the charts. And yes i found that of recent there is more straightaway trades, guessed you put them down more succinctly!


Yesterday's my series of trades were a major bummer, so overall even though i'm up 10% its not representative of NT.

Anyway by my count, Yen should be going for its 3rd leg now, EU, UC, GU should be put on hold till the FOMC meeting later where things will be fun. Based on what i see from the news, i'm thinking EU and GU long, UC short, either way, there's loads of time till then