The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Gertje]

Hello,

After a 4 week absence from trading [1 week before- and 3 weeks holiday], I re-started reading this thread from page 1 till now [took me 1,5 week], after leaving it behind in the past because I found it too much to absorb.

It's been a fun 1,5 week, with lot of aha-moments, and checking charts and re-reading some posts. Last week Tuesday I felt confident, and decided to start with 1 pair [EURUSD]. Looked back, and figured it was a L3 at the time. Marked the levels and kept an eye on the chart while reading further.

Tuesday I made some trades, SL or BE, and also wednesday I made a few with slight profit this time. Being on L3, I kept looking for a LONG-setup, that appeared on thursday. Got stopped out by the huge SH, but saw the idea of going long was valid after the SH.

Kept looking and entering longs friday and monday on the what looked like a loooooong L1 and TP on tuesday. Re-entered and TP later.

As I was now on L2 I assumed, I kept looking for long's, and even found some setups. This went terribly wrong, seems like I got the level-count wrong. Could have TP during the FCOM SH, but got too greedy and let the opportunity slip waiting for a better one.....

Where did I go wrong on the level count?

In hindsight, I now see that we are near the June-high, and PA is more than likely to drop.

Thanks in advance for the comments, will start reading the 101 thread now...
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[pips400]

Thank you Pips ,
I will read the thread from begining looks like i dont get it .
Regarding weekly cycle and 3 day cycle ,on which time frame i found each?

I guess everyone has a favourite setup, I find the H1 and M15 are the ones I use the most, sometimes zoom out to H4 for a longer term view. I'm not really a 3 levels believer, sure there can be three levels, and three pushes within a level etc, but it's not the levels that matter IMHO. The moment we try to put rules together for Naked Trading we're trading the form/pattern from the wrong side of the screen. Everything can be mixed up, manipulated. Treat levels as a bias, but not a rule. Every day during Asian session, if we go into accumulation then we have a HOD/LOD then we're looking for manipulation and stop hunt both long and short going into the London. The fox will gather a net position either long and short, and when he does he's then going to release market forces to go to work with the herd momentum, during which he's offloading. When he doesn't have a position left he starts the process all over again. Huge generalisation I know, but that's basically it. So we're looking at price (and maybe volume) to see if we can identify the tracks of the fox. For example, during the end of the profit release/offload/distribution phase, we'll often get a final accelerated push up, large volume, but then price stalls - this is a key to watch out for and is a big clue regardless of what level we're in, then of course the M and W but were looking for these at the high of low of the move typically, it's all about context, where are we in the fox business plan. So everyday can be a reset, we have bias for long or short, but in reality price could go either way. So that makes things easier. This is just my approach, I know others are more persistant with levels, but for me I want to remain open either way. I think also because we're in August with low volume trading, the fox is a lot quicker in general to get in and out of a position because the volume just isn't the same as at other times of the year.

[kwanann]

If that was pointed at me, I am quite confident in each of these trades I just was doing the due diligence on that GBPCAD of what reasons can I think of for my trade not being correct.
Still, it is advice that I do hope to have the discipline to follow more often.

ciliano, nope its not aimed at you, just a general comment actually. Good call on the EURAUD and AUDUSD

The whole point is to be confident of your trades, if you aint confident, go back to demo and build it up your confidence. Then make sure you do exactly the same thing you did in demo, if at any time you back out, you need to believe in yourself, take that jump (again this is not aimed at you ok )

3- I was mark that 3 days cycle was done

3rd day is rather short, it should end at the end of the 3rd day, count the peak highs, 3 peak high to the end of the 3rd day.

my steps as :
1-After asian end i wait 1 hour to determine HOD and LOD
2-After that i open short when the price breakout LOD
3- I was mark that 3 days cycle was done

1. This is extremely dangerous, HOD or LOD is not determined within 1 hour of the end of asian session (unless you are referring to the asian HOD or LOD, then its fine)
2. Thats the breakout traders move! extremely dangerous. Imagine you took the breakout of EU today, you would have just been at the short end of a 50pip stop hunt! On that note, remember how Mike was talking about no stop hunt for EU for quite a while, guess what, its back!
3. 3 day cycle doesnt exactly ends 3 days, it may take 5 days sometimes.. the timeframe doesnt matter, it is just the 3 day cycle

After a 4 week absence from trading

Welcome back!

Being on L3,

I would actually play the M15 and zoom out. On the H1, i typically reset L3 to L1, so your L1 is actually L2 and L2 is actually L3. EU has not been behaving properly so the level counts and what not may not be complete. Typically when you see price retrace and never hits the previous pins high, the trend might be over and its time to reverse. Also the peak for EU was approx 50pips above previous high, the standard advise still holds, sell EU at 1.34, buy at 1.28. They specially went that high to kill weak shorts and to get people thinking it can go up further. Once they got the volume they want.. well. things came crashing down

Will be concluding my red pill demo, 100% in 20 days, each day a different trading strategy. Back to live for me and a nice starting week

[pips400]

Yeah I'm trading 0.01 lot at the moment, and will work some kind of reward for profitable trading. Like a couple of days profit, double the lot etc until I reach full lot size for my account size. Today worked out, so a good day tomorrow and I'll double up for next week etc, that way I get the time to make the transition at a pace I'm comfortable with.

[Pedigree]

Hello,

After a 4 week absence from trading [1 week before- and 3 weeks holiday], I re-started reading this thread from page 1 till now [took me 1,5 week], after leaving it behind in the past because I found it too much to absorb.
.........

Gertje, glad to see you giving this a second chance. I assure you, you will find it a very worthy exercise. Never mind the initial cock-up - EU is the most wayward pair out there anyhow. All the best.

[Pedigree]

Yeah I'm trading 0.01 lot at the moment, and will work some kind of reward for profitable trading. Like a couple of days profit, double the lot etc until I reach full lot size for my account size. Today worked out, so a good day tomorrow and I'll double up for next week etc, that way I get the time to make the transition at a pace I'm comfortable with.

Great stuff!

Don't forget to prioritize the removal of your initial investment as soon as you can. Preferably, start a second account with it or, if you like, take the missus out somewhere nice!

[mjws00]

2. Thats the breakout traders move! extremely dangerous. Imagine you took the breakout of EU today, you would have just been at the short end of a 50pip stop hunt! On that note, remember how Mike was talking about no stop hunt for EU for quite a while, guess what, its back!

Will be concluding my red pill demo, 100% in 20 days, each day a different trading strategy. Back to live for me and a nice starting week

Nice work, kwanann.

Yep. Textbook stop hunt in EU yesterday. Neat thing is... FFT was 40 pips, move of the day only 60. With super pretty reversal signals. Not too mention textbook NY turn for 60 more the other way. Sometimes I fall in love... even in the summer.

Mike

P.S. Gertje, nice to see ya.

[pips400]

GBPCAD has a M on H1 and H4, still it creeps up.
Any clues to look for when wanting to make the best short entry?

I already entered in what I thought to be the top, but was tricked into it too early.
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Hi Gertje, good to see you on this thread.

This isn't just for you but a good learning point. When price reaches a previous high we naturally have a potential M, or a previous low a potential W, that isn't enough to place the trade. The fact that there could be a reversal here, means the fox is taking it to previous level for some stop hunts etc, so we are looking for manipulation at these possible reversal areas. The best setups IMHO come into the first couple of hours of London Open, wait for the break above Asian, to key levels, price drop back below quickly, this is a good indication of the fox at work, and validates the entry.

[pips400]

The GBPNZD M15/H1 is a good example, break above asian high, pins at previous key levels, forming M. I've got a short on this one, may or may not work but it's the edge I'm trading so in the long run these kind of setups work out more than not.

[Gertje]

GBPCAD

If you take away the last 2 candles, it's a perfect M in the making.
Of course now we see it racing up again.

Is the abcence of locking volume by lower and lower highs the sign we are looking for to avoid entering the wrong way?
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