TraderDesk GBP/JPY Trades

[TraderDesk]

Hi, I finally am back to start trading after the summer holidays. I don't like to trade in Aug. as price action is erratic for multiple reasons and I prefer to wait for price patterns that I am more comfortable with.

I am starting a new thread as I will be trading just GBP/JPY and I do welcome other traders thoughts on where GBP/JPY price action could move to on the charts. Remember only the currency pair GBP/JPY will be posted here. Thanks....

I will start posting here from Monday using the new demo account "FXCMSeptDemo" as the "TraderDesk Alpha" demo from GlobalPrime is closed as they are moving the demo accounts on to a new server.

FXCMSeptDemo will have a floating and realized DD(Drawdown) hard limit of 20% but I will try to keep that as low as possible to achieve my goal of 20% equity profit per month.

[kwanann]

Welcome back!

[TraderDesk]

Welcome back!

Thanks, glad to be back...

[TraderDesk]

Aug.30 2013:

Today I am getting myself immersed into the GBP/JPY charts so to get a good understanding of where price action is and could potentially go once I start trading on Monday. So I will start from the bigger picture and work myself to the lower time-frames.

Monthly TF: Price action is above the HA trend and staying above 140 on the monthly close will keep it's bullish trend.

Weekly TF: Price action is above the HA trend as well on this TF, staying above 145 keeps the bullish pressure intact as well. Last 8-10 weeks there has been a range setup between 147 and 155 levels roughly.

Daily TF: Price action is currently above the HA trend, needs to close above 150 to stay bullish. Price action clearly shows the weekly TF ranging that I talked about. There is some bullish price action currently in effect on the daily.

4 hour TF: Price action is below the HA trend in the current 4 hour bar. Pressure is currently downward, this is a Friday and end of the month trading day so I will keep that in mind.

30 minute TF: Price action is below the HA trend and is showing in the last few bars a bearish trend change. Monday should show if it is a transient movement or the new trend for the next couple of days.

I won't go lower for now as I am not trading today so this is the start of the business intelligence I need to start planning some trades.

[monkeh]

subscribed!
best of luck!

[TraderDesk]

Sept. 1 2013:

Sunday afternoon look at the the charts. So the week has ended and the pair GBP/JPY on the daily is still above the HA trend at Fridays daily close. So the pressure is still bullish on the daily.

Now this currency pair correlates very well with GBP/USD so I have brought up the daily chart for that currency pair. Price Action has closed above the HA trend as well but it has dropped lower in price the last 7 trading days. If price stays above 1.54 next week then bullish pressure/resumption of bull trend is a higher probability.

Another currency pair that correlates is USD/JPY so taking a look at this pair daily chart shows me price action is right below the HA trend. The picture is slightly fuzzy so taking a look at the weekly shows price action above the HA trend with pressure to the upside with the weekly close. Next week potential scenario I would look at price action becoming bullish.

If one or both currency pairs resume their longer term trends then I can expect GBP/JPY to follow as well. Now I find that GBP/JPY in most cases has a higher correlation with GBP/USD so even if USD/JPY stays flat or range bound I can still see GBP/JPY makes strong moves in tandem with GBP/USD...

So daily picture USD/JPY flat - GBP/USD bullish - GBP/JPY bullish. This snapshot for today shows me the daily trend is still bullish and can be bullish for next week... As long as this picture holds I will look to open buy-stops and buy-limits for next week.

Of course this picture can change but I will react when the picture changes...

Let's see what the beginning brings to the table.

[TraderDesk]

Sept.2 2013:

Time - 06:05GMT

Good morning,
Taking a look at the market price action has risen in a bullish manner helped by GBP/USD and USD/JPY bullish moves in the start of the Monday morning market.

I am putting some Buy-limits orders out to take any advantage of small pull-backs in price action plus I have put a small buy market order out to place my first stake in the market. This market order is not in a level that I like but it helps to have a foothold so I can evolve my strategy.

Intra-day bias at the moment is bullish so positions will be played as buys until intra-day bias changes.

Swing trade bias I usually measure from the 4 hour charts and that now has changed to a bullish bias as well. Here I would look to place buy-limits from 152.300 on up depending on risk parameters.

Keep in mind today the US market is having a bank holiday.

[monkeh]

200 pip move up in 10 hrs on GY..
what are your views on the gaps? bears did not manage to close it before bulls took over.
bears are waiting for better position?

[TraderDesk]

200 pip move up in 10 hrs on GY..
what are your views on the gaps? bears did not manage to close it before bulls took over.
bears are waiting for better position?

It is a strong move on up which in effect can be seen by both GBP/USD and USD/JPY giving it that push. Gaps can be a funny thing, I don't trade off of the premise that price will retract and close the gap but it happens so I will keep my eye on it for a while.

It is a holiday in the US session so price can get bouncy but I am looking for that retrace back down to below 153 to open new buy-limits. If it does not seem to want to go that low I will look at another opportunity to buy higher up. Wait and see mode at the moment...

[TraderDesk]

Sept.3 2013:
10.29am

Good morning,

Yesterday had a strong move up with no major retracement so I still have untouched buy-limits around 152.3 - 152.9 levels.

Looking at the intraday bias on the 30 minute TF I do see it is above the HA trend so price action is still bullish.

GBP/USD and USD/JPY are bullish on the daily TF and potentially have more to go in the coming week or two.

Now I am still waiting for price to come down to get back in on the ride at a level I find more acceptable.