The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[ciliano]

intcust if I were you I would get your hands on a session indicator and stick it on the m15 or m30 and use that to help you determine pushes and levels. Pushes are generally intraday and many times within one session. The picture of the AU levels you have there are more like an entire cycle in each of your L1 and L2 markings and a lot of choppiness and the possibility of an "M" forming in your L3.

Not at all saying your analysis is wrong just suggesting that the pushes and levels talk generally refers to 3-5 day cycles

[intcust]

Ciliano,


The way I see pushes and levels and cycle times are all relative to the time you are on. I think the 15 min. is three day cycle. I showed hour chart which has longer cycle time and if you go to 1 min the cycle time is shorter. So one can have a buy on 5 min chart while the hour chart is showing a sell for that cycle and both can be right over the cycle they are in. Maybe CJ will let us know his opinion on this. I also think a push on the 15 min could be a level on the 1 or 5 min. A retrace on the hour could be all three cycles on the 5 or 15 min. chart. That is what I think but I am always wrong.

Thanks,

[intcust]

aud jpy I see w formed and L1 done on 1 hour chart. I bought. Maybe should have waited for better entry. Shooting for 100 pip area. That is what I think but I am always wrong.

[kwanann]

My bias is long towards most yen pairs ATM, then again.. FOMC may screw up everything

[ciliano]

intcust,

I was thinking the level and push cycle occurred only over three days and not on higher TF. I looked back through the thread and looks like I was wrong...

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... els#p60094

[Nipponho]

Hi Ciliano,

I am now watching week 2 of the videos. I'm sure everyone here knows what videos i am talking about. Cannot be too specific, otherwise i risk being scolded by SteveHopwood.

What u said appears to me to be quite consistent with the approach taught by Steve(NotHopwood). M15, 3 levels over 3-5 days, ADRX3. It also shows the asian session box, some pushes to go slightly out of the asian range initially, and then 3 or more big pushes all the way to the other direction out of the asian box.

I am still watching week 2, not sure if they will teach higher time frame trading on later weeks . But so far, i see the charts they flash, all on m15.

There are many variations. Maybe we should follow Kwannan or CJ's versions since their approaches has been tested whereas no one has tested the original concept with satisfactory results.

Anybody, any thoughts or opinions?

intcust,

I was thinking the level and push cycle occurred only over three days and not on higher TF. I looked back through the thread and looks like I was wrong...

[kwanann]

Not sure if you guys noticed.. almost all the USD pairs are at the extremes

xxxUSD are all somewhere at the BOTTOM (EU & GU look at weekly, AUD, NZD is obvious)
USDxxx are all somewhere at the top

Is this a sign that FOMC will weaken USD instead of strengthen like what everyone is expecting?

[ciliano]

Is this a sign that FOMC will weaken USD instead of strengthen like what everyone is expecting?

Apparently.

I caught the gold spike as well as several other pairs that did well including a GBPNZD trade 150 pips in profit. Pretty happy about that.

I am sitting on gold and GBPNZD trades for a few days expecting them to continue trend

[odellcash]

guys I need some help. I'm having a hard time correctly predicting PA based on levels. So many pairs right now have continued on their current path for 5, 6, 7 or more levels. When I think I see 3 levels and an M or W, I keep getting into pairs that only retrace for a half day then keep going the way they were.

Take AUDUSD below. This is a 1H chart with 3 clear levels in 3 days (green lines) It gives an "M" pattern, retraces for one day,then keeps going up. (this pattern started on Aug 30th and AU is still going up)

Au.png

Or perhaps take this snapshot of CHFJPY.
3 clear and nice levels up after a swing low and an "M" pattern taking us down to level 1. You can see my predicted next level down (cyan line), but again, right back to the up trend.

CHJ.png

A third example is EURAUD. Swing high, 3 levels down, my predicted level 1 up after a "W" was forming, and nope, continues down.

EA.png

I could go on (EURGBP, EUPJPY, EURUSD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, ETC....) all have similar patterns over the last couple of weeks.

Obviously I'm missing something here. There's been talk of "Bias" and "level reset" where some of you have predicted a continuation of a trend. If anyone can give any input on where I'm going wrong I sure would appreciate it. I keep taking one step forward and 2 back.

[kwanann]

odellcash

Just being slighly floppy here, i re annotated your charts with how i map the pushes and levels.

As mentioned before, my bias is LONG on xxxYen pairs