nanningbob wrote:nicoacademia wrote:ever wonder why the market always plays games with your idea of it? a challenge to always stick to your game plan? news tugging you in all directions?
i had some time to read an interesting book and this line stood out so much for me.
"It's more important to be unpredictable in poker than it is to always have a sound mathematical reason for your actions."
Aaron Brown in The Poker Face of Wall Street
i keep this short so that line can resonate(if it does) with you.
for more detailed explanation...
http://books.google.com.sg/books?id=lFl ... le&f=false
I like to play a friendly game of poker and that article is very good about poker but Forex is businesses and governments exchanging funds. It is unpredictable because there is no control when Saudi Arabia cashes its checks for oil, Australia cashes its checks for Uranium, New Zealand cashes its checks for wool and cheese, and China cashes its checks for exported goods, and Germany cashes its checks for Audis and Volkswagens, and Japan cashes its checks for computer equipment, etc etc on and on. That is why traders get their brains beat in because they wont let the market breath. There is no pattern, or indie or fundamental that covers Russia exchanging gas for Euros, or USD at any moment of any time.
I have told this story before and I will tell it again. I remember a bad news story came out for the GBP and I went big into the trade. I said this is going to run. It did for about two hours and I was up up up. Little did I know nor could I know that the Bank of India and British Petroleum decided it was time to prop up the GBP. So they slammed everyone by buying big and my profit disappeared in minutes. Didnt know about it until the next day what had happened. Some people will run around and say the conspirators did this or the fox did that or the broker had to cover his negative positions and all sorts of other crap. Had nothing to do with it. Companies, govt., banks have a vested interest of keeping prices stable and within a certain range. Everytime there is an exchange around the world in this 4-6 Trillion dollar daily business price is going to tick up or down and there is no predicting General Motors cashing their check from their 1000 truck sale to France.
Last week the USD announced we are not tapering. The market reacted and SL were hit all over the place. I didnt have any SL hit because I know there was no fundamental change in what price had been doing. All the USD trades came back to the original starting point except eur/usd and the usd/chf within a day or two, but eur and chf had been strengthening anyways so that is no surprise. Long term trends can be seen on higher end charts. However, anything can happen at any moment at any time for just normal business transactions. Just the way it is.
i guess i stare at charts for so long now. on clear days you can see them pulling others in.
being an ex-economics student and ex-research analyst i grant the world wide plethora of factors in the continuum of various stratum. i pool sense/data/analysis from various levels from the obvious to the scant.
after awhile the market cancels it out.
just check back on predictions. most are wrong.
only what plays out within the screen is proven right and matters.
this is what i mean by... unpredictable.
do you think just anyone can push this forex market? no. and i'm sure you're well aware.
even if the whole of GE decided to flush its balance into another currency... if the rest of the market doesn't agree. it will just be a ripple.
while we practice to perform our systems efficiently. the niggling question of drawdown is answered by the market's desire to be unpredictable.
if the trade is so obvious. it will be proven the wrong one to take.
you have seen times when you decide to cut trades short. that something tells you its time to do the unexpected.
this is what i mean.
don't get caught up on poker itself. but the concept behind the actions.
