The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[kwanann]

waiting for the w to form on m15?

[odellcash]

Picture perfect M pattern on GU after 3 levels of rise on the daily chart. I also see correlation on H4 and H1. Thoughts?

gu_day.png

Hourly chart with my perceived pushes and levels

gu_h1.png

[odellcash]

Guys, I'm still having trouble here. How are these not M's?

Daily, 4 hour and 1 hour respectively. (we know now they weren't, but I don't understand why at the time they weren't M's

day_M.png

h4_M.png

1h_m.png

I am in no way doubting or arguing with either of you, but I need to understand why these Up, Down, Up patterns aren't M's. Especially after seeing a 3 level, 3 push rise. (I know those are guide lines, but there were 3 levels followed by those "up, down, up" Price Action that looked liked M's to me.
what am I missing?

[intcust]

gbpusdfxm15.png

odelcash

an M is up down up down and the last down breaks past the previous down. A W is down up down up with the second up going past the first up. What you have drawn lacks the last leg of the M which needs to be a down past the previous down low. here is g u 15 min that has booth M and W. This shows how tricky it can be because the m last leg is the first down leg for the w. count the levels and pushes and you should have know the m was not the trade to take. I hope this helps. But what do I know I am always wrong.

[intcust]

I agree it has been understated but very important. Once the three levels are done does not mean a reversal it means the fox having us chase our tails. Then a new set of levels starts could continue in same direction or reverse. This is very understated. Everyone is looking for a reversal and then one does not happen thinks something is wrong but what really happened is new level started in same direction. Took me a long time to get this and missed it last week with e j. But what do I know I am always wrong.

[kwanann]

I agree it has been understated but very important. Once the three levels are done does not mean a reversal it means the fox having us chase our tails. Then a new set of levels starts could continue in same direction or reverse. This is very understated. Everyone is looking for a reversal and then one does not happen thinks something is wrong but what really happened is new level started in same direction. Took me a long time to get this and missed it last week with e j. But what do I know I am always wrong.

Another thing is the lower timeframe patterns giving way to the higher timeframes.

3 Levels 3 Pushes on the M15 doesnt mean a M and 3 Levels 3 Pushes on the M15. The 3 L 3P can be 3P on D1 which means a small reversal and then continued movement in the same direction.

This can be really fuzzy and irritating, but hey take what you are given

Had fun scalping the asian session just for kicks, going to sit back and relax a while before the LON really kicks in, though it may not move much since most pairs are done with their ADR, reversal maybe

[kwanann]

Oh I can guarantee a reversal...when I stay with the trend. and I can guarantee a continued trend, when I take the reversal. (unfortunately, I'm not kidding)

been at this for a while now, guess its not for me.

good trading guys

Haha yeah it happens. Actually if you do not have alot of screen time, try playing with the higher TF e.g H4 or D1

Better R:R too, entry at pins, SL 5 to 10pips below the pins then let it ride

This is also an example of M15 3 pushes failing, look carefully, on the D1 last few days lows were held, in fact there was trapping volume, so we are looking at UP and not down

[kwanann]

odellcash

i took the liberty to annotate on your initial chart

Hope it is clearer for ya

[kundanketki]

Placed sell stop on GBP JPY at 158.400. Bearish M forming at 161.8 Bullish FIB level.

[intcust]

oldecash

I know it seems like what ever you do it is wrong. Forget that. If three levels have been hit and you think it is say an M formation sell it at the top of the M with a tight stop on a pin or RR or something. SET A TIGHT STOP high risk to reward. If you are right you make bank if you are wrong you only lose a little. A lot of times if you are wrong there was enough reversal to move stop to break even of something like that. If not all three levels hit then look for the bottom of the BS they pull in between moves and get it going up. This is of coarse based on a up trend for the time frame on the chart you are on. I like to dial down to the 1 min chart and play it. I look for 10-15 pip moves tight stop. I know the higher frames are easier to see the moves but there is something about the heat of battle that fine tunes one. TRADE DEMO try it on one min. Look for the pushes they are there. I like the EJ it hit my target for the trade I posted. But on the one min. it moves the set ups come and go in a half hour or so. So you are in the battle with little to lose with tight stop. It really helps with entries because if you miss one it is only a few minutes till another sets up not hours or days. On exit I look for 10-15 pips and or the distance of the previous push. If it quits making the push distance then I will close early and wait the fox out. The small channels are fox play so stay out. let the first push happen get the next ones. All kinds of pairs so one is always going. But what do I know I am always wrong