Brakeout of the monday's night

[michalkraus]

Hello guys, first of all let me introduce myself. My name is Michal and I am from the Czech rep. I am price action trader and I am happy about that. Recently I have started looking for a new simple system, which would work mechanicaly aside my manual trading. I found this method, which was quite popular on FF : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=168161 , but the thing that I didnt like was that the first 4hour candle opens in the middle of night in my country and spreads are wide. So I come up with some arrangements. Currently I am watching the zone that starts with the first hourly candle of the week and ends at the last candle before Monday London session starts.

Trading rules are easy. BUY SIGNAL:
Price breaches the high of the box. SELL SIGNAL is vice versa- price breaks the low

Trading pairs: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY and XAU/USD

We enter with stop orders, Stoploss is on the other side of the box, it means for buying - SL is at low of the box. We also need some buffer, so we do not exactly enter at High/Low but, we are using 5-10 pips buffer. Take profit is crucial, first TP is 1xsize of the box, second 2x size etc..... i am usually looking for 3 TPs. Opened pozitions would close on friday evening no matter what. Also we set only one buy stop and one sell stop in a week.

http://screencast.com/t/HhNctVa9VM5

Why I need an EA?

Well this simple strategy is profitable, but the thing is I need to optimize Money management, because the question is what to do with Stoploss once the trade was open, you can either move SL to BE after TP1 is hit or do nothing and also need to clarify partial closing of pozition. And EA saves time ofcourse.

And the last question that bothers me, if it is not better to delete the second order, when the the first one is locked in the profit. for example: buy stop hits TP1, so sell stop would be deleted, if hasnt been opened yet.....

I am sorry for my english, so please excuse me, I will be happy to hear some interest from you and I hope someone can make this simple strategy working

[phil_trade]

Hello guys, first of all let me introduce myself. My name is Michal and I am from the Czech rep. I am price action trader and I am happy about that. Recently I have started looking for a new simple system, which would work mechanicaly aside my manual trading. I found this method, which was quite popular on FF : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=168161 , but the thing that I didnt like was that the first 4hour candle opens in the middle of night in my country and spreads are wide. So I come up with some arrangements. Currently I am watching the zone that starts with the first hourly candle of the week and ends at the last candle before Monday London session starts.

Trading rules are easy. BUY SIGNAL:
Price breaches the high of the box. SELL SIGNAL is vice versa- price breaks the low

Trading pairs: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY and XAU/USD

We enter with stop orders, Stoploss is on the other side of the box, it means for buying - SL is at low of the box. We also need some buffer, so we do not exactly enter at High/Low but, we are using 5-10 pips buffer. Take profit is crucial, first TP is 1xsize of the box, second 2x size etc..... i am usually looking for 3 TPs. Opened pozitions would close on friday evening no matter what. Also we set only one buy stop and one sell stop in a week.

http://screencast.com/t/HhNctVa9VM5

Why I need an EA?

Well this simple strategy is profitable, but the thing is I need to optimize Money management, because the question is what to do with Stoploss once the trade was open, you can either move SL to BE after TP1 is hit or do nothing and also need to clarify partial closing of pozition. And EA saves time ofcourse.

And the last question that bothers me, if it is not better to delete the second order, when the the first one is locked in the profit. for example: buy stop hits TP1, so sell stop would be deleted, if hasnt been opened yet.....

I am sorry for my english, so please excuse me, I will be happy to hear some interest from you and I hope someone can make this simple strategy working

Hi Michal and Welcome !

very simple strategy ! I love it

Will backtest it with Forextester with your rules

cheers

Philippe

[milanese]

Hello guys, first of all let me introduce myself. My name is Michal and I am from the Czech rep. I am price action trader and I am happy about that. Recently I have started looking for a new simple system, which would work mechanicaly aside my manual trading. I found this method, which was quite popular on FF : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=168161 , but the thing that I didnt like was that the first 4hour candle opens in the middle of night in my country and spreads are wide. So I come up with some arrangements. Currently I am watching the zone that starts with the first hourly candle of the week and ends at the last candle before Monday London session starts.

Trading rules are easy. BUY SIGNAL:
Price breaches the high of the box. SELL SIGNAL is vice versa- price breaks the low

Trading pairs: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY and XAU/USD

We enter with stop orders, Stoploss is on the other side of the box, it means for buying - SL is at low of the box. We also need some buffer, so we do not exactly enter at High/Low but, we are using 5-10 pips buffer. Take profit is crucial, first TP is 1xsize of the box, second 2x size etc..... i am usually looking for 3 TPs. Opened pozitions would close on friday evening no matter what. Also we set only one buy stop and one sell stop in a week.

http://screencast.com/t/HhNctVa9VM5

Why I need an EA?

Well this simple strategy is profitable, but the thing is I need to optimize Money management, because the question is what to do with Stoploss once the trade was open, you can either move SL to BE after TP1 is hit or do nothing and also need to clarify partial closing of pozition. And EA saves time ofcourse.

And the last question that bothers me, if it is not better to delete the second order, when the the first one is locked in the profit. for example: buy stop hits TP1, so sell stop would be deleted, if hasnt been opened yet.....

I am sorry for my english, so please excuse me, I will be happy to hear some interest from you and I hope someone can make this simple strategy working

Hello Michal,

I remember that Steve had programmed a breakout EA http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... f=5&t=1455 maybe interesting for you..

Cheers and welcome

Tommaso

[michalkraus]

Hello Michal,

I remember that Steve had programmed a breakout EA http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... f=5&t=1455 maybe interesting for you..

Cheers and welcome

Tommaso

Thx Tommaso, well I will go thru that EA tonight, it could work, if i am able to set the zone. Just one zone for one week. very simple, but really profitable

[phil_trade]

Hi Michal

Just finished to code this in ForexTester and backtest it from 2009 to 2013.

first pairs tested is USDJPY, and result is about 0. Lot of gains and lot of losses.

Could you publish your last manual trades so I can check if I have well understood all rules.

cheers

Philippe

[garyfritz]

I knocked out a quick test in Tradestation. I see good results in all the JPY pairs. I did some fairly minor modifications but mostly I followed the rules.

I'm in meetings today but I'll post some more results when I get a chance later today.

Philippe, how far back did you test? In my tests USDJPY is flat since August, but it did well before that, back to August 2012. Flat for a few years before that, but it made 6000 pips in the last 10 years.

[michalkraus]

Wau guys I really appreciate your effort, I am amazed, you are awesome.

First of all I think that USD/JPY is the worst pair of list, but it just based on my visual backtest

TO Phil : RULES : I guess you understand entries and stoploss and the zone the will break.

The problem starts with MM and it can totally change the results. I have been manually trading this system for 3 weeks and did some serious visual backtest. I am personally using this setting: when the TP1 is hit I close 1/3 of pozition and move SL to BE, when the TP2 is hit, SL goes to TP1. Honestly most of the time price reaches only TP2

here is the current trade on USD/JPY http://screencast.com/t/kAtpKfBTV

[phil_trade]

I knocked out a quick test in Tradestation. I see good results in all the JPY pairs. I did some fairly minor modifications but mostly I followed the rules.

I'm in meetings today but I'll post some more results when I get a chance later today.

Philippe, how far back did you test? In my tests USDJPY is flat since August, but it did well before that, back to August 2012. Flat for a few years before that, but it made 6000 pips in the last 10 years.

from 2009 to 2013

[phil_trade]

Wau guys I really appreciate your effort, I am amazed, you are awesome.

First of all I think that USD/JPY is the worst pair of list, but it just based on my visual backtest

TO Phil : RULES : I guess you understand entries and stoploss and the zone the will break.

The problem starts with MM and it can totally change the results. I have been manually trading this system for 3 weeks and did some serious visual backtest. I am personally using this setting: when the TP1 is hit I close 1/3 of pozition and move SL to BE, when the TP2 is hit, SL goes to TP1. Honestly most of the time price reaches only TP2

here is the current trade on USD/JPY http://screencast.com/t/kAtpKfBTV

Could you confirm one thing : Do you delete Pending Sell when First Pending Buy is converted to BUY and vice versa ?

Philippe

[garyfritz]

I'm still experimenting with this, but it looks good!

I made some minor changes to the rules:

* Instead of using a fixed 10-pip (or whatever) Buffer, I used a percentage of the bar's H-L range. That lets it adapt to changes in volatility. (I'm also experimenting with using ATR instead of a single bar's range.)

* When market hits TP1, move SL to entry +/- Buffer (so it takes a Buffer of profit instead of just BE).

* I leave the Sell order open when the Buy is hit, and vice-versa. So I can buy once and sell once per week.

* I'm currently just exiting at TP3 or the SL.

So there are probably improvements to be made. With that simple definition, here are all the JPY pairs going back to 2007:

WeekBO.gif

The heavy red line is the average of all 7 pairs. Here's the same in a table summary:

WeekBOtable.gif

So it's averaged over $1000 per pair, per year, for 6 of the last 7 years. 2010 was a loser. If you traded 0.1 lot for each pair, you'd have made nearly $10k per year for the last 3 years, $56k total in the last 7.

That ain't half bad.