The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Captain Jack]

Hi CJ,

I would like to seek your input on the following EURGBP chart.

1. In area A, the highlighted area shows RRT, do you consider this as level 1 drop? Or would you consider this as the mid point of the M formation? (Am I seeing things here on the M shape?)

2. In area B, there is a long chop prior to it. Notice the two highlighted RRT, given the appearance of the first RRT on the left, would you consider that as the Peak Low and the fox wants to bring price up in the new 3 days cycle?

3. The fox threw up the second RRT and stop the upmove in its track, would you have considered that this was level 1 up?

I am trying to identify the fox's track leading up to where he wants to move the 3 level of price but I am having difficultly on this chart. I feel that I am missing something here and thus could you kindly advise please? Thank you!

You really should look at the charts across all the time frames.... try the 4H here....

On a side note....why pick a pair with poor, ill defined chart patterns? I repeat over and over to take what is given and do not try to manufacture movements....

I myself would not be looking at what you are looking at with so many more viable trade setups available.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Yeah, after captain issued the alert, it looked quite high probability . There were several hits to the high of day without surpassing. I was also waiting for entry and waiting for it to surpass the high by a bit and then came back down. This did not happen and I hesitated to enter because the hunts often occur at session changeovers, so I waited for US to open, and I was not given the opportunity to enter, and I found GU instead and saw the accumulation going on (or at least that was what I perceived).

I was lucky as I would get stopped out and scratching my head if I entered during London session. But also very unlucky as I missed the expected move as captain’s alert was proven correct, just that the entry timing made all the difference. 100 pip move, what a big waste.

What do u think of EG for tomorrow? 3 levels neatly displayed on H1. On M15, second leg in the process and one long pin. Does this pair behave well in the past during M&Ws?

If you review the thread, you will find where I posted examples of live trades DURING news events. You will also note that I have stated "news" is not news to some people and this is how they unwind positions or establish new positions, QUICKLY. It's how they create the volume of transactions needed to move price the distance they need to book their profit. Remember that PIPS are the unit of measurement for price movement. It takes days or weeks to build their position, but minutes to unwind it and book the profits.

The stop hunts at the beginning are to do just what they did, clear you and others of correct trade positioning or to force you into the wrong position. That's why the 1st move in the "hunt" is usually a false move. Understand there is no reason to establish a position BEFORE a "news" event when you can use the edge of the false trade for placing the position.

CADJPY was a perfect setup, generating thousands of pips with stacked orders....

Look for a rebound long trade here...

CJ

Hey CJ,

quick qns on CADJPY, what have you seen on it that gave clue to it turning upwards from there?

Oh, I don't know, what do you think?

CJ

[daje]

[/quote]


Dave - could you add on as to why you feel it will go down?[/quote]

I noted a BARF last year (blue circle). Ever since been bearish gold.

Fundamentally, its taking alot of body blows lately which have added to the impact of the downtrend. So these impacts will take a while to unwind, and reverse gold direction.

Consider the long term chart:

Gold W.JPG

[Jacque]

Yeah, after captain issued the alert, it looked quite high probability . There were several hits to the high of day without surpassing. I was also waiting for entry and waiting for it to surpass the high by a bit and then came back down. This did not happen and I hesitated to enter because the hunts often occur at session changeovers, so I waited for US to open, and I was not given the opportunity to enter, and I found GU instead and saw the accumulation going on (or at least that was what I perceived).

I was lucky as I would get stopped out and scratching my head if I entered during London session. But also very unlucky as I missed the expected move as captain’s alert was proven correct, just that the entry timing made all the difference. 100 pip move, what a big waste.

What do u think of EG for tomorrow? 3 levels neatly displayed on H1. On M15, second leg in the process and one long pin. Does this pair behave well in the past during M&Ws?

If you review the thread, you will find where I posted examples of live trades DURING news events. You will also note that I have stated "news" is not news to some people and this is how they unwind positions or establish new positions, QUICKLY. It's how they create the volume of transactions needed to move price the distance they need to book their profit. Remember that PIPS are the unit of measurement for price movement. It takes days or weeks to build their position, but minutes to unwind it and book the profits.

The stop hunts at the beginning are to do just what they did, clear you and others of correct trade positioning or to force you into the wrong position. That's why the 1st move in the "hunt" is usually a false move. Understand there is no reason to establish a position BEFORE a "news" event when you can use the edge of the false trade for placing the position.

CADJPY was a perfect setup, generating thousands of pips with stacked orders....

Look for a rebound long trade here...

CJ

Hey CJ,

quick qns on CADJPY, what have you seen on it that gave clue to it turning upwards from there?

Oh, I don't know, what do you think?

CJ

CJ,

thanks for calling the pins out. Please see attached when I have called out Pin1 and Pin2. From your H4 charts, it looks like Pin2 was forming when you called for a rebound long trade. It is clear on the completed pattern that Pin2 went to form an RRT and subsequently a W and caused a rebound. I would like to ask the simple question of why no long trade was called out on Pin1 but it would have lost context so question is:

1. By the same logic of calling out a long at Pin2 while it was forming, does Pin1 qualify for the same call on long too? If it doesnt then,

2. On hindsight, it is obvious that Pin1 failed. Thus, what was not present on Pin1 that is present on Pin2?

3. I also note two long pins when the upmove was in force, what is present to indicate to hold the trade for more upmove or do we bail out at the first sight and take what is given?

Thank you for your attention.

[Nipponho]

GU NU looks like in process of forming second leg. Market quiet. Bank holiday

[rostaus]

Gold.JPG

Heres my vote for gold...

Nice call Dave, the H/S completed....

CJ

Appreciate that John, it has a ways to go for the full predict. The news certainly got it on its way,

watching your EU pattern trade thats also a nice call! It will be astonishing to see it complete as we expect it will... hope to see some more examples of such setups . Cheers

I'm not sure if you noticed but that EU post was on a monthly chart... I hope to be around to see it complete... so far, so it's following it nicely... i actually have that plotted out to like 25 moves of so...

Hi CJ,

thanks for your advice, its Gold. I was stumbling around in the dark before I read your thread : ) Could you pass on a few pointers about Volume. If the previous two bars are higher than the existing one it seems to represent a no supply or no demand. Could you Advise how you interpret volume and how does this determine when you will enter a trade or exit.

Thanks Rob

[tomasbelada]

something like M is happening on USDCAD. Lets see if I am right

Tomas

[Nipponho]

Hi Tomas, i hope u are in this trade, looks beautiful on M15. Second leg of second leg, (in short 3 legs). Saw your chart one hour late. If it comes back for another stop hunt, i will enter.

[Nipponho]

4.21am US time. Check out AJ. Stop hunting

[tomasbelada]

AUDUSD H1 - could be a W.
However, very difficult level counting on that pair.