Gold/Silver Trading

[GT3RS]

Think this shows the way forward to develop an expert advisor - anyone ready to give it a go?

Can you explain what it is you're seeing please?

I tried another brief backtest today based on pending orders 25 points either side of the price at the fix times, with a 25 point SL and 50 point TP.

Interesting results since 1st Jan:

Points gained: 525
Strike rate:48%
Equity growth: 48% [based on risking 2% per deal]

[passgo]

Using the hours that garyfritz identified, can have two trading opportunities per day - 7.30 - 13.00 and 15.00 - 24.00. At the simplest, enter short in the morning when entry confirmed and long in the afternoon again with confirmation.

Alternatively, a timed breakout type strategy might work with the goldfix price at 10.30GMT establishing a key ("pivot") level - this level is negotiated by the LBMA, something that doesn't happen in forex markets.

Need answers to a series of questions:

- is the price action before the am goldfix at 10.30GMT predictive?
- is the price action before the pm goldfix at 15.00 GMT relative to the AM gold fix predictive?
- can USD/CHF correlation be used

For either strategy, entry with small stop loss and using multipurpose trade manager to minimise losses, move to breakeven and run profits

[passgo]

Another day when the rules fall into place:

[GT3RS]

Hi Passgo,

I think you'd generate more interest in someone coding this if you actually stated your rules.

Entry/exit criteria, stop losses, trade management etc etc.

Thanks,

Rob

[passgo]

I agree that I have now made enough progress since my first post with the help of you guys to crystallise some trading rules on the basis of what I am doing manually on a live account. All times are GMT:

First trade:

1. Sell on break of low of 7.30-8.00 candle with 50 SL
2. Manage trade with multipurpose trade management to individual preferences
3. If trade still open, close above low of 12.00-12.30 candle, or above low of subsequent candles

Second trade

1. Buy on break of high of 13.30-14.00 candle with 50 SL
2. Manage trade with multipurpose trade management to individual preferences
3. If trade still open, close below high of 6.00-6.30 candle, or below high of subsequent candles

These rules have worked for the last two days but are a work in progress - an expert adviser would allow testing whether it is best to always sell in morning and buy in the afternoon, use counter long term trend or straightforward breakout.

Does this make sense? Hope so

[passgo]

Ok - today's price action has been useful. As I said, I am trading gold live on a mini account. I find live trading helps to focus my mind in a way demo trading doesn't! Also the timing of trades is really improving percentage.

Not quite sure what happened to switch risk off at 16.20ish, but looking at forex factory it seems to coincide with the Swiss closing down a nuclear reactor. Whatever, the effect has continued for a number of candles.

Below is 30M chart and legend - can we use EMAs to manage exits and entries; seems there is a close relationship to the gold fixes?

solid yellow line - am gold fix at 10.30 GMT
dotted yellow line - pm gold fix at 15.00 GMT
Red EMA 24 - half a day
Blue EMA 12 - 6 hours

[passgo]

Have been busy the last week trying to find an ea to use for testing. Got really good results using Trumpcard: a candlestick closing price breakout EA from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=319264 that is included in the archive of steve's eas. I have set up on 5M chart to only trade short, hours 7-9 and 12-16. Has opened good trades, but have been closing manually. Tried to use the candlestick trailing stop, but doesn't seem to work, so have now set up MPTM for jumping stop loss so will see where that goes. I feel tightening stop loss after each candle would be the best way to go: could someone check the code to see if the candlestick trailing stop should work? Also would like to add an ability to close positions in profit at set times.

The ea does not test well for long positions and have not found an alternative yet - would it be possible to add to the trumpcard ea an ability to open a long pending order when no short position is open and when up trend is re-established? Any ideas for best signal - using candlestick logic, HH's during trading times, 0-3, and 15-19?

To summarise, where watching the charts is taking me is using the hourly pattern of gold trading to harvest gold trend by identifying the most probable trend at defined times. The code for the Trumpcard EA gives a good base - with the addition of more alternatives to close short positions and then open long orders when certain candlestick conditions signal restart of upward trend, this can take testing a whole step further.

Hoping one of the coding/trading wizards will find their interest tweaked?