10.6 EDSEL

[art]

hi bob a happy new year to all, been a bit busy so some catching up to do, I did a couple of quick trades yesterday just to get back into it, im long audjpy at the moment just touching the 240 im hoping the bond auction willl put the trade into positive, the daily css on both currencies are both angling up so no yen weakness yet

[HannesJoubert]

Does anybody know how the bond auction is fairing, and how long we still have to go before Yen starts appreciating again?

[lonelytrader]

ok so I did my first trade,
http://screencast.com/t/ZkxEGnYQdd

GBP CAD, i cleared it via the checklist of a 4h buy and andy filter of 21ema >55EMa

I entered at the xxx.50 and parked the SL at the 240 MA,

at this point i dont care about the results, I just wanted to know if I did this correctly.
You can be as critical as you want, I want to learn.

Thanks in advance

[trucomallica]

ok so I did my first trade,
http://screencast.com/t/ZkxEGnYQdd

GBP CAD, i cleared it via the checklist of a 4h buy and andy filter of 21ema >55EMa

I entered at the xxx.50 and parked the SL at the 240 MA,

at this point i dont care about the results, I just wanted to know if I did this correctly.
You can be as critical as you want, I want to learn.

Thanks in advance

You have to put your pendings as soon as the Stoch is coming from below 20. You didn't have a signal there, 'cause the last stoch up-move happened when price was between the 60 and 240. Also, your stop is way above the 240. The last signal happened yesterday on the 1H.
You can see it as a range too, and price is right at the top of it.

[lonelytrader]

trucomallica,
can you clear up something for me, this is a 4h trading system, so why would I be looking for a signal on the 1h?
also in the 10.6 pdf it says
Stochastic 7, 2, 2 is > 20 and rising.

which means the stoch is higher then 20 and rising...

[SteveHopwood]

trucomallica,
can you clear up something for me, this is a 4h trading system, so why would I be looking for a signal on the 1h?
also in the 10.6 pdf it says
Stochastic 7, 2, 2 is > 20 and rising.

which means the stoch is higher then 20 and rising...

There are times when the stoch will never reach the extremes of 80/20 on the H4 because the trend is too strong. For example, in a really strong uptrend, stoch will not fall below 20 and so cannot rise above it again to tell you to look for a trade. When the market is trending strongly like this, Dummy Lights will show two green columns.

Then you drop down to the H1 and look for the H1 stoch to retrace to the 20 and rise above again. The principle is the same; there has been a retrace in the market and you are looking to buy back into the trend as it resumes.

It is what I do from my understanding of Bob's teaching. As a result, I am enjoying far more of these and far less of these

[trucomallica]

If you say this system is on the 4H and then you talk about the 10.6 pdf, clearly you have not read the pdf.
You take long signals when the Stoch is coming from BELOW 20, and not above 80.
You did not have a proper buy signal since Jan 2th on GBPCAD.
Please read the pdf a couple times.

[nanningbob]

ok so I did my first trade,
http://screencast.com/t/ZkxEGnYQdd

GBP CAD, i cleared it via the checklist of a 4h buy and andy filter of 21ema >55EMa

I entered at the xxx.50 and parked the SL at the 240 MA,

at this point i dont care about the results, I just wanted to know if I did this correctly.
You can be as critical as you want, I want to learn.

Thanks in advance

Ok Let us take a look at the trade.
CSS read GBP is the strongest currency on the board. It did not go down like its eur and chf cousins so it still is showing strength. In fact while eur chf were going down at the end of December, gbp was going up so we respect its strength. Even though it had a strong retracement during the first week of 2014 it bounced off of the 240 line and stayed inside its range, which I mentioned earlier the gbp would probably do but was not sure. So pic 1 I shows where price hits the 60 MA showing the current move was over. It moved strongly up again breaking its previous high but the move was not sustained. It came back into its range. Then price hit the bottom of the range (240 line) and moved strongly up again but stayed inside its range. It was a nice fake out but predictable with the CSS that it might not break into a DT. Again we were coming out of the December holiday where light trading can cause large unpredictable movements. So pic 1 shows range area 1. We show range areas by:
When price hits the 60 MA we pick the last swing high and low and/or 240 line to set the range #2 and #3. Price will stay in this range until a fundamental drives it out. Despite the fake outs gbp/cad has stayed in its range for several weeks now.

[nanningbob]

Unlike trend trading, range trading can be messy but profitable. That is because price can jump all over the place within its range. Range does not mean non-volatile. It can be very volatile and profits/losses can come and go quickly. Buying back into the strength can be considered a good risk trade but these are not as easy to read. So yes I have played the gbp/cad sell at this present spot because I anticipate the gbp/cad to stay in its range for now. In range trading you ignore the dummy lights (they can be helpful at times) That is why you saw the olive and goldenrod colors for a while with this currency. It was letting you know it was ranging. Anyway I am range trading this now with a CT trade. It may work, it may not but that is how you range trade. Good buy by the way. I did not take the buy trade but will try the sell. If price breaks above the top swing high then we may see another UT in the gbp/cad.

[nanningbob]

Does anybody know how the bond auction is fairing, and how long we still have to go before Yen starts appreciating again?

The JPY bond sales are spread over the month with 8-10 selling sessions. They had one yesterday. Other factors going on in Asia that affect the JPY. Chinese banks having liquidity problems. China is going to cut back 25% on steel production which will affect other industries also. This will also affect the AUD and then NZD but not as much. The new leader is going to try to reduce the increase of debt. Many people dont know this but China has taken on more debt as percent to GDP than any other country. Now they are feeling the pinch of sovereign debt drunkenness. They are trying to get the debt monster under control also which means they will economically retrench UNLESS the behind the scene boys decide they dont want it to end.

Most people think the Communist party is one big happy group. They are not and have divisions inside of them similar to political parties. It is why every-time there is a change of leadership they go through this clear out the corrupt official campaign. They have to get rid of key opposition leaders and install their own. Kind of fun to watch at times.

Anyway if China's economy stumbles more people will buy the JPY for safety than the govt. will sell so it will stagnate. So the thing to watch is to see if they increase their sales (like the SNB did with the CHF) and drive off the buyers. Then the buyers will go to ????????????????????