10.6 EDSEL

[dispell]

NO look for sell opportunities. The CSS is showing downward movement on the aud and the nzd. My warning is especially for people like me who CT trade once in a while. If China covers the upcoming losses or partially covers them so it is not so severe things will be ok. But if they dont it will be a doozy. Remember Chinese bank had 3 credit squeezes in their banking system this last year. A 4th one is on the horizon. There comes a time when they cant cover it and they will go through a USA 2008 or a JPY meltdown of 30 years ago.

I see… i still have a bunch to learn about the economy. Thanks!
So does this mean i look for sells even if its against the trend?

[HannesJoubert]

I think what Bob is saying is that firstly, Fundamentals trump Technicals, and that, due to the potential fall out from China, the trend of AUD & NZD weakening from last week could gather some real speed (down is usually much faster than up imo) meaning that all crosses with AUD and NZD in them should be played in the light of the AUD and NZD currency weaknesses. If you do not want to play those weaknesses, get out of the way (i.e. take your longs of the AUD & NZD off the table) and let the crosses go south....

At least, that is how I understand it... :youknow:

But the markets are about as exciting as dry paint at the moment anyway...

H

[dispell]

But the markets are about as exciting as dry paint at the moment anyway...

Haha..
Made me chuckle.
I did make some pips on the first two days of trading 10.6, but as a beginner, i'm trying to master trend trading.
However, most of the pairs are within the ranging area. Got pulverized by the nzd spike the other day thou.

[nanningbob]

I think what Bob is saying is that firstly, Fundamentals trump Technicals, and that, due to the potential fall out from China, the trend of AUD & NZD weakening from last week could gather some real speed (down is usually much faster than up imo) meaning that all crosses with AUD and NZD in them should be played in the light of the AUD and NZD currency weaknesses. If you do not want to play those weaknesses, get out of the way (i.e. take your longs of the AUD & NZD off the table) and let the crosses go south....

At least, that is how I understand it... :youknow:

But the markets are about as exciting as dry paint at the moment anyway...

H

Yes and it doesnt mean it will happen tomorrow. True fundamentals, not just short term news stories, flow over a period of time. It doesnt meant that a currency wont go up it means its general direction is going down. Last year the big story was the JPY and was a nice ride especially the first 6 months. If a story like this hits it will affect everything in Asia for quite some time. We dont wish it to happen or want it to happen but that story is out there and some very important decisions are being made right now as to what to do. As a trader you need to be aware that at any time in the next two or three weeks a big gigantic elephant make affect the entire Forex market. They may come up with a solution and it may not be a big deal. But China's bubble burst will not be a small matter if and when it happens. The hard part of predicting this one and its affects is most transactions in China are still cash transactions. But their use of credit is a ticking time bomb.

[HannesJoubert]

I'm still working according to the standard EDSEL and STO7 signals with some forward guidance from CSS...So hopefully I would be able to catch those slides when they do happen.

However, today, is still a very quiet day...

One piece of "excitement", three male peacocks have decided that our garden looks like a nice place to chill... Will be keeping a close eye on them, maybe some wild pie is in the offing *yum*

[nanningbob]

OK vacation is over time to get back to work. The holiday has a tendency to flatten out the CSS so we will see what happens today and what direction the markets go.

[fx800]

Call for rate hikes in NZD following a higher than expected CPI causes NZD to spike higher.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=467408

Will this run ??

Yen angling down as Dow and Nikkei futures rise.

[nanningbob]

Call for rate hikes in NZD following a higher than expected CPI causes NZD to spike higher.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=467408

Will this run ??

Yen angling down as Dow and Nikkei futures rise.

A call for a rate hike and a rate hike are two different things. A rate hike of .25 will run for a couple of days. More than that will cause a fundamental run for weeks. An announcement is usually just a news story. A good story to watch.

CSS NZD vs. CAD. They run opposite at times and together at times. Lately it has been opposite for 2 months and together 5 months before that. Interesting call.

[nanningbob]

Does anyone know if aud and nzd have ever been at parity 1:1 to each other?

[zTB]

Yes, it appears so.

Please see the attached modified OECD dataset; the AUDNZD rates in row 9 calculated on the basis of OECD data in rows 5 and 6.

Apologies for the erroneous data file which has now been removed.

Z