alorente » Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:01 am wrote:EurUsd H4 TMA has turned clearly down and will move to the bottom line of the D1 TMA band (Around 1.35 or less). Does that mean EU will drop in the coming days? Not necessarily... If you look at the 35 bars to the right of the 50 Bars Back red dotted line in H4 time frame, they are stronger than current price. That means that EU could rise to 1.39 and the H4 would continue down with the same slope it has now. Will EU bounce? Not necessarily, but if it doesnt, the H4 TMA will increase it´s slope down considerably. Next week is a different story... The bars beyond 36 to the right of the 50 bars back line indicate a sharp drop. If I had to bet, EU will be supported this week and will fall hard next week. That is how to read 50 Bars Back indi. Once you get used to it, it will help you predict moves quite accurately.
Of course, this will work only if you have the H4 TMA period set at 50 also...
If you don´t understand what I just said, ask me questions. This is the heart of the ExtremeTMA system...
To continue on what I was saying, H4 slopes tend to repeat themselves for each pair. Here is how to benefit from this:
Look at the slope of H4 on EurUsd during the drop last June. Draw a trendline that matches one of the sides of the H4 TMA. Now drag the trendline to the right until you reach the drop in November. You can see that it matches pretty well with the H4 TMA, now drag the trendline to today. As you can see, it is much steeper than the -0.29 slope we have now. What does this mean? Most probably, the H4 TMA will increase its slope considerably, probably to -0.50 or more. What does this mean? It means price will have to underperform the bars to the right of the 50 Bars Back indi in order for the slope to become steeper.
Bottom line: EurUsd has probably reached a high on the rebound to 1.3835 and will tend to be supported this week or drop further. Next week it should drop really hard in order to accentuate the slope down on the TMA.
Al,
I hate to Digress from your Topic as regards Trading the H4 and D1 I will Gradually come round to Doing that but please have a Look at this Trade when you have time, this is How I would Trade the Lower time frames with your Indi/Template based on what I Understand so far about the TMA Fast Line...I would Exit these set of Trades when Price Touches the Lower White TMA Fast Line Band or When the STO7 is Flat on the H1, please also Consider that the Idea of the Trade is an Entry and Exit on the Lower M15 TimeFrame but I am Open to Correction from anyone if I am wrong.
Happy Trading Y'all.
xrismak
Yes. Exiting on the lower line of the TMA is correct by the book. Still, to me trading is not purely mechanics. I would keep an eye when price reaches the centerline of the TMA for a possible turn. Keep an eye on the TSI at that point. If it starts to turn up, you may want to exit. If it continues straight, hold on. When you get to the bottom line of the TMA, look at the TSI again to detect a possible turn. Hold on if it continues dropping and lower your stop. You may be able to get more pips by holding. The point is, you should be sensitive to what the market is doing and not just settle on a fixed exit point.
Mechanics are fine, but trading is more art than science. With practice and always keeping an open mind to any possibility, you will get to "feel" the market.
Another point. You should not have the TMA set to current on the time frame. Set it to H1 even if you are in M15 TF. Most pairs move to the other side of the H1 TMA intraday, especially GbpJpy. Don´t use the M15 TMA, it will limit your pips since it is too narrow.
Alorente,
Thanks for the Heads Up on the TMA and I have taken every point you raised Seriously and Made Adjustments to the Time Frame, I am Sure as you have said that when I give myself a bit more Chat time I will be able to Understand the feel of the market and Implement trading Profitably and Flawlessly with this TMA Indi...
Many Thanks for your Support and Candid Advice.
happy Trading Y'all
xrismak.
nanningbob » Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:50 am wrote:Watch that JPY line. It is about to do the same thing with the eur and chf. End of the month strengthening of JPY seems to be in the works again this month.
I like my coffee black and, yes, EurUsd seems to be starting a new medium term downtrend that may last well into 2015. We´ll watch it closely. I am heavily short at this point with an average price of 1.3850. I will be building a milipede with this one as it drops, in a similar way as I did with UsdJpy as it climbed.
If anyone doesn´t know what a milipede is or how to build one, let me know and I will explain...
nanningbob » Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:50 am wrote:Watch that JPY line. It is about to do the same thing with the eur and chf. End of the month strengthening of JPY seems to be in the works again this month.
I like my coffee black and, yes, EurUsd seems to be starting a new medium term downtrend that may last well into 2015. We´ll watch it closely. I am heavily short at this point with an average price of 1.3850. I will be building a milipede with this one as it drops, in a similar way as I did with UsdJpy as it climbed.
If anyone doesn´t know what a milipede is or how to build one, let me know and I will explain...
Here is a classic TMA trade. The H4 TMA surpasses the top line of the D1 TMA and has turned. On top of that, look at the head and shoulders that has formed on H4 TF. This thing should drop hard in the coming weeks until the H4 TMA reaches the bottom line of the D1 and begins to turn up again.
10.6 also confirms the bearish setup.
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I like my coffee black and, yes, EurUsd seems to be starting a new medium term downtrend that may last well into 2015. We´ll watch it closely. I am heavily short at this point with an average price of 1.3850. I will be building a milipede with this one as it drops, in a similar way as I did with UsdJpy as it climbed.
If anyone doesn´t know what a milipede is or how to build one, let me know and I will explain...
I know the animal, but not in Forex, so please explain...
nanningbob » Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:50 am wrote:Watch that JPY line. It is about to do the same thing with the eur and chf. End of the month strengthening of JPY seems to be in the works again this month.
I like my coffee black and, yes, EurUsd seems to be starting a new medium term downtrend that may last well into 2015. We´ll watch it closely. I am heavily short at this point with an average price of 1.3850. I will be building a milipede with this one as it drops, in a similar way as I did with UsdJpy as it climbed.
If anyone doesn´t know what a milipede is or how to build one, let me know and I will explain...
nanningbob » Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:50 am wrote:Watch that JPY line. It is about to do the same thing with the eur and chf. End of the month strengthening of JPY seems to be in the works again this month.
I like my coffee black and, yes, EurUsd seems to be starting a new medium term downtrend that may last well into 2015. We´ll watch it closely. I am heavily short at this point with an average price of 1.3850. I will be building a milipede with this one as it drops, in a similar way as I did with UsdJpy as it climbed.
If anyone doesn´t know what a milipede is or how to build one, let me know and I will explain...
My Mother in Law is named Mili. Does that count?
OK. Let´s say your analysis tells you there is a high probability of a medium to long term move on a pair, like on EurUsd right now. Let´s say you decide to build a 10 lot milipede with .5 size steps. When 10.6, TMA etc. signals a good short on the pair, you start the milipede with the first .5 lot trade. EurUsd drops 50 pips. You wait for 10.6 to give you a good short signal and enter your second .5 lot trade leaving the first one open. With each subsequent 50 pip drop and good short signal, you open a new .50 lot trade. After the 10 lots are invested, with every new short you open with each additional 50 pip drop, you simultaneously close the oldest trade taking your profit, leaving you a constant 10 lot invested.
When your analysis tells you that the long term trend is nearing an end soon, you stop opening new trades and start closing the older trades till you end up at zero again.
This strategy can make you a lot of money if you catch a solid, long lasting trend.
Let´s say your analysis tells you there is a high probability of a medium to long term move on a pair, like on EurUsd right now. Let´s say you decide to build a 10 lot milipede with .5 size steps.
When your analysis tells you that the long term trend is nearing an end soon, you stop opening new trades and start closing the older trades till you end up at zero again.
Does anyone have a "millipeed" script that can execute say 10 trades at X pip increments? If not that would be really useful given price moves in waves.
Doc
yamez » Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:10 pm wrote:
The H4 Sto 7 (red line) nearly always lines up with the H1 TMA. I am using TMA+CG with boldtraders settings.
I have his TMA on a demo and am watching it. I dont see or I have missed seeing where you have an alert sent. I like pop up screen alerts becuase when I come to my computer on breaks I just go look at the alert and decide if I want to trade that currency. ALs TMA has an alert and was just curious to see if its there.
The alert works with TMA+CG, looks like this, "EURNZD- at 23:00:00 THA : low penetrated lower bar"
You can set it to pop up alert, email, sound. Options for current bar and close of bar. Both these worked. I'm going to leave on close of bar ( OnHighLow ) and check for setups every hour via email to phone, when possible. Up till now I've been eyeballing.
