10.6 EDSEL

[Gertje]

EURGBP has retraced and might be setting up for a sell or have I got it wrong again You know I think there might be such as thing as too much screen time.

I considered short EURGBP but H1 TMA and D1 STO7 edging up. I'm going for real trend trades. Range trades on demo for now.

TMA and STO7 edging up on the H1 is no biggy, we look at the H4.

Since last week tuesday the pair went between the 60- and 240MA, meaning range trade. Seeing the TMA slope, looking for sells.

Last thursday, the pair went below both 60- and 240MA, meaning looking for 10.4 sells when the STO7 drops below 80 from above. The pairs STO7 is now on it's way to the ceiling, meaning we can look for sells in the next few candles. I would enter a pending sell at the DP already now, and TP@0.826 which is the pairs ADRlow.

Hope this helps.

eurgbpfh4.png

PS: on the CSS D1 the GBP is slightly less weak than the EUR [they just crossed], so the pair should go South anyway.

[alorente]

Two years WOW!!! However there are guys that run hedge funds and they have gridded the entire distance of a currency. In other words if price goes up they win and price goes down they win and they basically have a permanent fixed DD. Since they dont leverage or leverage is small their swap costs are nothing. Their bottom line just keeps going up slowly year after year. I had an account set up using one penny lots trading both ways and setting profit at 100 pips. That means 1.00 profit every time price move 100 pips in any direction. You take a pair like aud/nzd or something with almost no swap cost and has had a range of 3000 pips over its history and you have 30 trades going both directions. You are always hedged so the DD becomes permanently set. Then its nothing but winners from then on out. Every time a broker or bank spikes price you win. 100 up 100 down two winners. It is an interesting way to trade. I tried it once and was getting my grid going and my balance almost kept up with the growing DD. Then when the DD was set it was all profit. However, hedging was banned in the USA and that was that. I hadnt done it long enough to finish the test but I could see it would work. chf/jpy and eur/chf between each other has a very minumum swap.

The most important thing I have learned from hanging onto trades for a long time is I got to see how the market breathes in and out. It gave me a sense of market movement across the board. It also allowed me to lose my fear of market moves. I dont fear the market anymore or a loss. Most people dont want to take the time to take a 1000 bucks and trade one penny and learn. You would have to lose 100,000 pips to blow the account and if you are that bad you need to get out anyway. My best recovery was -1300 pips on the aud/chf over a 3 month period and I ended up making a profit by the time I was done. My biggest hold was 6 months on an aud/usd and I finally gave up and the next week it dropped like a rock and I would have succeeded.

The problem with discussing these things is idiots think we didnt take other trades and actually were profiting during these times but thats their problem. I dont like talking about it because the one in one out crowd just doesnt understand the concept that DD does not compound but constant winners banked does. DD does compound if you constantly take losers but it does not if you hang onto them and arent fighting a major trend in the wrong direction. Something I have finally learned to stay out of. I havent bombed an account now in 4 or 5 years.

Anyway I said all that to say this. Holding onto bad trades is not good trading but I learned how the market breathes and move together by doing it. It is how I developed insight into the market. Now its like I look at a chart and go ............ oohh that looks good and later YEAH or ooohh that looks really bad and I get out. Its also how I learned to trade and counter trade and range trade. I can do all three comfortably and profitably. I even once did the AUD/USD as it moved down 120 pips one day and made 60 pips buying it just to see if I could do it. So now I do crazy things once in a while just to see if I can.

Anyway, now the goal is not to have DD or as little as possible. Because of these experiences I think I can get good at it. Milanese and I were working on an improvement of an indi when we found a bug in it. Then we discovered something that if it proves true will dramatically change my trading and hopefully everyone elses. We will see how it goes but I cant help teasing you some over it. None of this however would have been possible if I hadnt done years of all these different styles of trading. Now ............... well lets see how it goes. 175 pips before the USA session alone yesterday.

I love reading your thoughts. I learn a lot from it and I feel good knowing that I am not alone in this, sometimes very lonely profession. Thanks again and again for your very special contributions...

[alorente]

Is it possible to put a band on a moving average that is similar to the COG or TMA where the bands are based on ATR or something similar. Bollinger Bands widen and narrow too much and every currency has its own distance from the center. So I guess a COG/TMA based on a moving average for the center line but the outer bands based on a COG/TMA readings. This would be give a better back test I guess. Just an idea if someone knows if something like this exists. Here is the 60 MA with 100 pips on each side but every currency's outer bands should be different and not the same. See pic for the basic idea based on 60 MA.

FastTMA already adjusts the width of the band according to ATR. The default is ATR 100 (Last 100 periods), but you can change that to your liking.

[alorente]

Is it possible to put a band on a moving average that is similar to the COG or TMA where the bands are based on ATR or something similar. Bollinger Bands widen and narrow too much and every currency has its own distance from the center. So I guess a COG/TMA based on a moving average for the center line but the outer bands based on a COG/TMA readings. This would be give a better back test I guess. Just an idea if someone knows if something like this exists. Here is the 60 MA with 100 pips on each side but every currency's outer bands should be different and not the same. See pic for the basic idea based on 60 MA.

I think I now understand what you are saying. I used to get around this by adjusting the ATR Multiplier to the current volatility (ATR) of each pair. I don´t do it anymore, but it worked well...

[Gertje]

gbpchf just gave an alert on the 1 hour, buy just under a sweet spot, looking at the css,daily gbp is just crossing chf, the 4 hour css chf just crossing the +20 line just under gbp , any thoughts?

Looks good to go, STO7 is at the bottom, waiting for it to come up and take those pendings...

[Pedigree]

Just before the last GBP news release, I placed a sell stop order for GBPCAD at 1.84398. When the release was made, price dropped sharply but I was filled in at 1.84270, a 12.8-pip difference! One of the hassles we have to live with, I guess. But I thought I might decide later to have a chat with them about it.

So I tried to export the entire contents of my journal in which it's all clearly outlined. I however find that I can't remember how this is done, even though I seem to recall having done it before. Could anyone please inform how to do this? I know there are the log files also but I want the journal.

[zader]

GBPCAD & EURCAD both looking good for sells on break of daily pivot :

[art]

just noticed my price and pips distance on my charts are stuck, also the swap label is missing as well, any ideas cheers

[Pedigree]

GBPCAD & EURCAD both looking good for sells on break of daily pivot :

In on both. Out of GBPCAD already with 25....too early again...! EURCAD has a longer distance to run though.

[art]

yep have my pendings placed