darshanag » Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:09 pm wrote:
Hi Boldtrader.. As you also mentioned & given the past history, there's a good chance of a move up on EURUSD to close the gap of this week's open.. With that in mind do you think its worth buying EUR/USD or do you think its too risky given the mid/long term view of the pair ? Appreciate your thoughts on this... Cheers !
D
Darshanag.. Will share with you (and others here) technique I have found which works very well.
The TL is key. I have been using TL's for many years, infact since the beginning of my trading career.
I changed things a bit... The TL as normally applied in the industry is referred to as a Trend Line. I refer to that same line as a Trade Line. Reason? The word "trend" can be somewhat opinionated. Some in the industry may look at a weekly chart and consider a trend is up.. while others may prefer using the Daily or Monthly to determine trend and say that the trend is down. So rather than trying to convince others about the definition of Trend, I prefer to use the word "Trade". So while others are trying to determine the trend, I am banking pips. This way, they can have their trend.. and I will have my trades.
##1_2014-04-14_1444_001.png
For the price action chart purists.. TL only..
##1_2014-04-14_1519.png
As having been demonstrated thousands of times, and probably even seen by your own self, price will ride a certain drawn line along tops or bottoms of candle patterns or (ie: high/low's of a series of price bars), potentially for hundreds of pips until it no longer follows that same pathway. The Demark TL is a great helper tool, and has been automated to do what we have been doing for many years (at least partially). Just as it has been added here with 10.7, it can be a great compliment. So, price follows the TL. Then it stops following that TL. What does it do? Normally, price crosses that TL and a new direction of momentum is in play. WHEN price crosses that TL, that is when I am ready to Trade.. thus, the reason for the term "Trade Line", vs "Trend Line". It is a purpose for a call to action, an alert (but not necessarily a reason to trade).
Next I am looking to where I can draw the TL's on my current chart.. The chart below shows the TL's (Orange) I have placed on the chart with regards to the direction of momentum. Anytime I can get 2-3 changes in the angle of the TL, this is an early alert to an impending change of direction. It is similar in concept to the Price / Volume strategy.. ie: Increasing price on decreasing volume.. prepare for reversal.. thus, the sharper the angle of the TL, the higher the probability of a reversal. The key is to plan ahead based on the breaking of the primary TL (GANN Theory referred to this as the 1 x 1 Angle or 45' angle. )
When price breaks the primary TL, the "MST" levels THEN become activated as primary targets. There is more.. but is the basis to hopefully give you an idea to your answer.
Think of it this way.. (Million Dollar Trade Secret - This will make a great title to my new book)... In order for price to move up to close the gap.. what must happen? Until price completes this certain event, what will price do?
Look at the 10.7 indi.. where are the daily/weekly located? Where is the Sto7 located? will it remain? Are there lower Price Points of Interest (PPOI)? If so, when will price move there? Are there higher PPOI to seek?
Since the ATR do not repaint, look at the use of the TL against the ATR extreme levels. You will be amazed at the accuracy. Combine that with 10.7, even 10.6 and it is very difficult to miss, if you know what to look for.. which by now, I hope I gave you a big hint and bright lights are now glowing.. I don't mind answering your question, but I would rather teach you and others how to find the answer. Then you will know and be able to teach others.
Regarding my view or anyone else's view.. depending on who you ask, it will be different. I trade based on "what is", not what I think.. (took me a long time to get past that.. we want to be right).. I trade based on experience and based on where I think the market will go because of specific events and causes. Sometimes they are not readily seen and must be figured out.
But one action to keep in mind.. no matter what the opinion is.. trade based on what you see, not what you think. I and many others have lost lots based on opinion.. (made a lot also) .. but learn to trade based on facts. Example: " yes.. price is following this TL and as long as it remains under this TL.. I will stay short.. or trade down, or 10.7 weekly is down.. and as long as it remains 0.0000 I will only trade down... etc.." That is fact based trading.. You can have an opinion on a bounce, a reversal or that price will move to a certain PPOI.. but until it does.. trade what you see. WHEN the event occurs... and WHEN price begins to move in the direction of your opinion.. then make the trade.
If you still need help after all these hints.. contact me..
Cheers.
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