A potential setup with USDPLN for massive profits

[TraderDesk]

I have setup a large buy on currencies that will take a hit if Russia invades Ukraine. Since the rhetoric has heated up between Ukraine and Russia it could very likely cause USDPLN to shoot up from 300+ to several thousand pips in one week. If you look at past history where Russia has fermented trouble Eastern bloc currencies have depreciate in a major way.

I like USDPLN since they are feeling the heat plus the currency is at a cheap buy as they are quite strong historically so getting stronger in this uncertain environment is a lower probability then getting weaker in a hurry should something happen this weekend or next...

Take a look and let me know what your thoughts are....

[Mike]

I have setup a large buy on currencies that will take a hit if Russia invades Ukraine. Since the rhetoric has heated up between Ukraine and Russia it could very likely cause USDPLN to shoot up from 300+ to several thousand pips in one week. If you look at past history where Russia has fermented trouble Eastern bloc currencies have depreciate in a major way.

I like USDPLN since they are feeling the heat plus the currency is at a cheap buy as they are quite strong historically so getting stronger in this uncertain environment is a lower probability then getting weaker in a hurry should something happen this weekend or next...

Take a look and let me know what your thoughts are....

Interesting
Can you upload a chart going back to 2005 or less?
what are your pending positions?
Thanks for the hint, Mike

[TraderDesk]

Hi Mike,

I sometimes trade in exotic currencies but in this case it just make sense to trade this pair. If you take a look at the daily chart it has broke the HA line which is like the 240MA. PA is above the yellow Denmark line as well.

usdplndaily.png

I would look to add buy positions when Price Action goes close to the lower 4 hour TMA fast line.

usdpln4hour.png

PA has been higher then the current level for the last three years except for a brief foray in Dec. 2013 where it reverse back up in Jan. so the probability with the current unrest in Poland geographical area i.e. Ukraine/Russia will provide the impetus to drive PA higher via the fear factor which has a habit of increasing volatility in a dramatic fashion.

Because it is considered an exotic currency pair the margin is usually much higher as well as the spreads so you will need to take that into consideration but the increase in potential pip range can go far to offset this.

Now I see there is potential for an incident or even full-scale hostilities to break out so why not take advantage of this scenario happening?

What do you think? By the way I don't advertise my trades or pendings but I would strongly consider adding longs on the lower 4 hour TMA line