Gann Ribbon 10.7 System

[fire580]

Thanks for the NADEX info

[slowkey]

Thanks for the NADEX info

Your welcome fire ... Hard to trade these narrow ranges intraday. Nadex is very cool if you live in the US. I wish they would open it up to other countries but the US is obsessed with Money Laundering.

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

If you do try out Nadex I created a new Power template and modified indicator to display and sort just the 10 major pairs traded on the Nadex. See post 1 if you are interested
Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

Unless you had been trading AUD news the markets were asleep this am. So my Nadex trade.

This was a binary trade. Useful in a narrow ranging pair and quiet market.

USDJPY trading in a very narrow range. The strike price is 102. I think USD is strong so I take the offer to be > 102 ... I was wrong 2 hours in to the trade. Should have entered the narrow trade latter on because it would not have made all that much difference. On a trending trade it would have been different.
So I took a partial loss something you could not do with a bucket shop. They lock you in to the trade. I than put down 67 dollars of risk to profit 27. Let me explain. The higher the chance of a successful trade the higher the risk. So I had a 67 percent chance of profiting 27 dollars. If I had risk 27 dollars to profit 67 dollars it would have been less likely to occur. 27 percent. Where this breaks down is with news. This was a very low volatility market to trade in.
It is hard to get your head around it at first but you can make premium trades that are 80 - 90 dollars risk to make 10 to 20 dollars near expiration. They are slam dunks most of the time just to show you the logic of it all. These odds are more solid closer to expiration.

Very Narrow range

usdjpym5.png

It all changes.

usdjpym5 2.png

Plus 7.25 dollars.

Screenshot 2014-06-02 02.17.59.png

Anxiety attack time. It works out but I should have gotten out at 25 dollars. I stayed in through expiration and because they take the last 25 prices and throw out some at the top and bottom it all worked out. Never again. Follow my own advice.

usdjpym5 3.png

Only the 5 minute CSS was helpful because of the time to expiration and narrow range. But it was very helpful. The ribbons did not play to big a rule but when price crossed down over the gray ribbon I knew I had to get out of the first trade.

power 1.png

In the end at a dollar a pip I would have made maybe 5 dollars and that is a reach. 27 dollars or the full 100 getting my risk and profit. This is blast to trade when the volatility of forex is so ridiculously low.

Cheers,
Doug[/size][/b]

[slowkey]

Here is the reason you do not hold these binary trades to the end. This is how close the prior posts trade was in detail.

Settlement Details:
Contract: USD/JPY >102.00 (3AM)
Quantity: -1
Expiration Value: 101.999
Payout Amount: $100

I just missed getting knocked out by 0.001. Really incredible and dumb on my part to not get out at 25 dollars at 5 minutes left. That last minute spike was almost disaster. The reason that it says >102 is that the bid price means you will not be equal to or greater than 102.00. However I still made that full amount. A way around this is placing take profit orders. I just saw this this AM. Yikes.

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

So here is a fade of the USDJPY after a sour ISM Manufacturing PMI report of 53.2. I took this on Nadex but could have easily taken it on spot forex.

Again a binary trade. The strike was the white line > 102.13 ... I bought the offer with about an hour to go just after the report. Really nice to see price stop at the Daily and at the bottom right at the 15 min crimson edge.

usdjpym5.png

I got out about 1430 gmt with a profit of about 22 dollars. That was before the 61.8 fib level. It was a hyperbolic move down and I did not expect it to come back this far but it did.

usdjpym5 2.png

I could have stayed in longer until near the end of the hour but I had a nice profit and you cannot be certain price would not start to chop down and up some. Again this was a little more of a trade than before but the dotted lines equal 10 pips. This means the most you could have got out of the trade was 20 pips and again that would have been a reach.

usdjpym5 3.png

Observe the blue stochastic well positioned in the first chart and its progress in subsequent charts. There is a red volume bar shoving price back up off of the 15 min. Pros were fading this event.
The highest volume of trading on Nadex has been on the USDJPY they stated in there news relating to 2013.That and the US 500. I find it a very nice and somewhat predictable pair for trading Nadex. After an opening loss last night just getting back into trading this I have had enough success to almost put me into profitably. You want to get out early with these trades and not be gambling on a last minute outcome.
Cheers,
Doug
[/size][/b]

[slowkey]

So I would rather make a lot of small trades than one big one and have to sweat out the last 10 minutes. I got into this one about 1530 gmt and it only went a few pips but if you catch it on a change in direction than it can be quite profitable.

Of course I have the advantage of seeing the resistance of the 15 minute ribbon this time on AUDUSD. The stochastic setup is very good when I take the trade.

audusdm15.png

I get out early and because of the turn around I catch the more profitable trade. Again I could have stayed in but little lucrative trades like this winning a high percentage is my goal.

audusdm15 2.png

I am out at 21.75 dollars. I have had more opportunities to trade on Nadex than I could have had in spot forex under current conditions. It will be always like this because when there are very strong trending markets you switch to Bull Spreads. The high effective leverage where your collateral is your risk is a big plus. I hope there are similar platforms to Nadex outside the US and not just bucket shops.

Screenshot 2014-06-02 11.40.38.png

Cheers,
That is all for now ... Have a great day.
Doug[/size][/b]

[slowkey]

Just a little house keeping note about the minimal templates. I have 2 main accounts I use ... a standard and micro. I just realized that my template for the recent minimal bundle is set to - 5 for the pivot tool. I try to get every thing I use on GMT. However I started using the template on Cowboy IBFX and realized it was set for Oanda whom uses NY standard time for their servers. So below is where you can adjust the thv pivot tool setting to your particular time zone. I keep mine on GMT as you will notice on the screen shot. However to do that for oanda I needed different settings. Thus the -5 on the template I posted. Than on Cowboy IBFX I was all messed up

Screenshot 2014-06-02 20.06.49.png

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

So we all want to be trading and these quiet markets especially in the evening can be frustrating. So there are times just not to trade until the market wakes up and this is true of options or spot forex. So it is 0030 gmt and you want to trade the Asian session. Maybe NZD is moving slightly but for the majors I am looking at this pm all is asleep. There is no trade on Nadex or spot and to do so would at this moment at least be a gamble. USDCAD one pip one way or the other impossible to trade.Same can be said of USDJPY or others also.

usdcadmm15.png

Power dead.

power.png

15 min intraday CSS I use. Nothing

css.png

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

So AUDUSD woke up with news and I faded it with a binary.

audusdmm5.png

Still with an hour to go but the stochastic bottoming out I close out for 39.25 made just with about a 12 pip move down from the white line strike.
I had a potential for 59 dollars but it seemed a safe and relaxing time to take profit. I also had lost a trade by not paying attention to the CSS earlier in the day and I just wanted back to break even. Live and learn. I have over traded some but having something to trade was really nice today.

Screenshot 2014-06-02 22.03.09.png

Cheers,
Doug