nanningbob » Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:48 am wrote:OK its a race to the bottom. The JPY has taken the early lead with the eur&chf tight behind him. The CAD has hit the stop sign and will try to catch up the gbp not wanting to follow but is being slowly drug along with the euro. The USD trying to find good news so it wont go with it.
MEANWHILE.
AUD is going to the top and probably stay for a while. NZD is shifted to overdrive and will try to match here sister race car the AUD. Its summer time and its time to load up on NZD buys as it goes flying up the chart. With the highest interest payout its ready to rock and roll once again. After 5 months of goofing around the market is back to normal. AUD follows NZD and both go the opposite of the JPY. YES its time to make some money.
Watch out for NZD interest rates on Wednesday. Expected to rise which will send a rocket up NZD as you suggested due to EUR on negative interest and NZD highest in developed world. Massive inflows expected to safety.
Intersesting little read in light of your comment.
You will learn not to listen to these idiots. Did you analyze what he said. Here let me quote one sentence of the article. Headline and quote:
NZ dollar weakens as US interest rates seen rising
The kiwi slipped to 84.88 US cents at 8am from 85.13 cents at 5pm yesterday.
Now that is 25 pips ................ now what do you think of an analysis like that.
Focus more on the macro and long term economics. Remember that these guys writing these articles have a certain number of newspaper column words that they have to write each and every day. So just empty words really for that day only.
I suggest zoom out any NZD pair to weekly and monthly and just eyeball the chart. You can clearly see where it's heading and as far as I am concerned its simply because NZD pays highest interest.
I am still on my positive swap experiment that I started in the 10.6 thread and it's going well. My drawdown maxed at 14% and is around 10% currently due to EUR interest rate change. My biggest drawdowns are on NZD, but I keep saying do not panic - just look at the longterm and I will be OK. I am pretty sure this week is going to be good for me.
rocketman99 » Tue Jun 10, 2014 11:35 am wrote:
Focus more on the macro and long term economics. Remember that these guys writing these articles have a certain number of newspaper column words that they have to write each and every day. So just empty words really for that day only.
I suggest zoom out any NZD pair to weekly and monthly and just eyeball the chart. You can clearly see where it's heading and as far as I am concerned its simply because NZD pays highest interest.
I am still on my positive swap experiment that I started in the 10.6 thread and it's going well. My drawdown maxed at 14% and is around 10% currently due to EUR interest rate change. My biggest drawdowns are on NZD, but I keep saying do not panic - just look at the longterm and I will be OK. I am pretty sure this week is going to be good for me.
YUP you got it. Even with some DD if the fundamentals are right the big traders will continue to buy. I talked to one guy at FF who new a fund trader that is all he did. He bought aud and nzd and never sold it until it went 1000 pips. Since he was earning positive interest on his money he didnt care what his DD was. He also traded very low leverage like 5:1. So, there are people out there who do this stuff. It is why I put 10.8 out there for positive swap traders. I am getting more and more into that. I will trade against the swap but wont hold them for long.
rocketman99 » Tue Jun 10, 2014 11:35 am wrote:
Focus more on the macro and long term economics. Remember that these guys writing these articles have a certain number of newspaper column words that they have to write each and every day. So just empty words really for that day only.
I suggest zoom out any NZD pair to weekly and monthly and just eyeball the chart. You can clearly see where it's heading and as far as I am concerned its simply because NZD pays highest interest.
I am still on my positive swap experiment that I started in the 10.6 thread and it's going well. My drawdown maxed at 14% and is around 10% currently due to EUR interest rate change. My biggest drawdowns are on NZD, but I keep saying do not panic - just look at the longterm and I will be OK. I am pretty sure this week is going to be good for me.
YUP you got it. Even with some DD if the fundamentals are right the big traders will continue to buy. I talked to one guy at FF who new a fund trader that is all he did. He bought aud and nzd and never sold it until it went 1000 pips. Since he was earning positive interest on his money he didnt care what his DD was. He also traded very low leverage like 5:1. So, there are people out there who do this stuff. It is why I put 10.8 out there for positive swap traders. I am getting more and more into that. I will trade against the swap but wont hold them for long.
Thanks for the positive encouragement from a pro! Yes, for me anyway, positive swap (i.e. 10.8) is the way to go. I pretty much only look at daily, then weekly and monthly for longer trends and only use 4H for entries.
I have adapted 10.8 to ensure if I go negative swap that my positive swap open trades cover the negative trade I am entering (I am not in the US so I can hedge - I do not close my positive swap trades). For example NZDCHF ranges very well, negative swap is 3:1. So open 3 long and 1 short and you can keep trades going indefinitely. I am also hedged on AUDNZD - many short open and one long hedge. I will probably close out my long tonight due to NZD interest rates tomorrow.
The 60/240 MA reads on the 4H chart still hold water. Notice how we will follow the NZD up again especially when it crosses that 240 line. I may let those two trades I got ready to go ride for a while because if the NZD does raise rates I think it will go for a while. WHY?? Because the NZD will follow the AUD and when the AUD goes down then I can look at closing out the NZD trades. I did these last year with the gbp/nzd and they were gold. Some of you may remember my remarks about that run in Oct. and November.
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AUD is breaking through yearly high's to Jan 1st against all major's - how much higher can it go? Economic news out of Auz and China is not so good so where to next?
rocketman99 » Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:33 pm wrote:AUD is breaking through yearly high's to Jan 1st against all major's - how much higher can it go? Economic news out of Auz and China is not so good so where to next?
Australia is replacing that business with new business from Indonesia and India. They could be the next growth areas of Asia. China has slowed down yes but it is still growing around 6-7% a year. That is still healthy growth. Every country in the West wish they had that problem. We must take the hyperbole out of the news.
rocketman99 » Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:33 pm wrote:AUD is breaking through yearly high's to Jan 1st against all major's - how much higher can it go? Economic news out of Auz and China is not so good so where to next?
Australia is replacing that business with new business from Indonesia and India. They could be the next growth areas of Asia. China has slowed down yes but it is still growing around 6-7% a year. That is still healthy growth. Every country in the West wish they had that problem. We must take the hyperbole out of the news.
True. I guess in Forex terms AUD and NZD are best positioned as the rest (EUR, JPY etc) are in a really bad way. If you are looking for safety, choose the CHF. Short the others. CAD, not so sure.
I love it when a plan comes together. NZD up up and away from bottom to 2nd place. Thank you all of you in Aussie land who make the AUD the great predictor of the NZD. I did well this week how about you?
What I said last week.
AUD moved up as I thought it would and the NZD will be right behind it. Strongly recommend aud and nzd getting stronger. see CSS pic below.
I was all over the NZD this week and it paid off.
JPY and EUR weakness JPY weakness worked on everything except usd and cad and so so against the aud (which made no sense to me. But against gbp, nzd, and eur it was fantastic. I did trade the eur/jpy though. So I had a mixed bag with jpy weakness this wee.
EUR weakness did very well in as it went down across the board.
aud, nzd getting stronger,
USD probably will hang onto the strong currency position
GBP ripped in half with some going strong, some growing weak.
USD bleah......... why did I even try to trade that.
GBP YIPPEE with gbp/jpy and gbp/nzd were big winners. GBP showing some strength at the end of the week which was a surprise.
Upcoming week, I see no reason to change eur weakness with a caveat I will explain in the next post.
JPY crossing the -20 so depreciation should accelerate, hoping it does against the usd.
AUD and NZD strength should continue and ..................... GBP maybe ???? Can GBP and EUR head in opposite directions. We will see.
USD and CAD stuck in the middle again.
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Someone in Europe is defending the 1.35 line on the eur/usd. Only a central bank has the kind of funds to do that. I suspect it has to be Germany with some others participating. I explain some of this in my philosophy of trading as professional bank traders talk about the behind the scenes of Forex. If they can get enough people to put some buy stops down there they can relieve some of the losses they will take if price goes lower. I will sell the Euro at ever rally but I wont be buying it. The EURO bosses want to depreciate it, the banks and big businesses want some time to unload their exposure. When that happens I believe it will drop below the 1.35 line. When I see the pundits from the big banks at FF talk about going long on the Euro I know it will be time to short it. Good luck.
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Well I said nzd, aud and gbp up lets see how that worked out.
AUD remained somewhat flat all week with the aud/cad dropping at the end. Picked some buy pips but not a lot.
NZD was solid but not spectacular. Picked up some pips on almost every nzd cross pair. nzd/usd was the best trade. NZD took over the top spot but nothing earth shattering.
GBP every pair had a least one decent buy winner but nothing to get real excited about. Picked up some pips here also.
USD weaikened more than expected but if you played it you did well with some trades.
CAD had an end of the week news buy which I missed most of except I did well on eur/cad and gbp/cad.
EUR weakness did well but did better playing JPY weakness.
So not a spectacular week but solid. Now next week.
End of the month so I am expecting:
NZD run seems to have run its course. Possibly some retracements but dont expect strong moves. Probably wont look for sells but see if a buy or two is still in it.
AUD moving down strongly on the chart but volatility is not strong
GBP will look for buys this week along with the CAD. CAD economy is showing some long term strength so willing to ride it after a big drop early in the year.
USD weaker than expected so will look for more USD weakness along with eur and chf. EUR 1.35 line was defended quite well and I dont see it going below that for the foreseeable future. Get the feeling it wants to go bang but not being allowed to.
JPY weakness was weak this week except the gbp/jpy. So not expecting anything big at the moment.
It seems to be grind it out time in the Forex world with getting 20-50 pips here and there the norm with an occasional news story pushing it to the 60-90 pip range. See your profits, grab them because a ranging summer seems to be in the cards.
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