10.7 CSS

[nanningbob]

Greets Bob,

Burning the midnight oil I see...

Quick question or maybe observation:

The attached pic shows CSS 3.1 (with CHF) and CSS 3.5 (without CHF)

Would the differences between the two results have any bearing on currency strength in general (with regard to trade influence), regardless of whether you were trading CHF pairs or not?

Rgds
RM

The reason I looked at taking out the CHF is because it is tied to the euro. In a sense they are being counted twice in the formula so I was wondering if that really affected the results. It seems it doesn't, so I dont see any significant difference between the two. Unless you are trading the eur/chf (I dont) you really only need one of the lines since they are basically identical.

Anyway that is my feeling on the subject. In reality you only want to know the difference in strength between the pairs you are trading. The others would be just noise to you.

[nanningbob]

I am using 10.7 with the DP and TMA. Add a CSS read and that pretty well does it. I use 10.7 on the 30M and 4H and sometimes the Daily. Gives me plenty of trades to choose from and away we go. If others are having success please share.

Hi Bob

As a long time lurker of the forum, I'd like to report (finally) on my progress, and to to thank you for your teaching, and sharing of your methods.
I had been trying to learn the art of currency trading for almost two years with little success, I somehow stumbled on Steve's forum, and Bob's methods - I think it was 10.2 then, but it all looked a bit complicated, so I persisted with my one trade at a time - looking for the home run, let the profit run mentality, as widely taught. I'm sure if applied correctly, these trading methods can work, but they did not for me .

I kept receiving the weekly "Good Luck" email from Steve (thank you Steve), so about a year later decided to have another look. It has taken me some time to get my head around everything (not helped by moving from New Zealand to Ireland!) however, as I began trading again, following Bob's advice, gradually I am beginning to recoup my losses - making more (still on penny lots here) in a few months than I did in years, and not having the losses. I think reading Bob's Philosophy of Trading was crucial for me - a real change of trading mindset. I don't obssess over one trade - I have lots of tiny ones running, if they are negative for a while that's fine (I'm mainly taking +ve swaps trades, so that mounts up too) when I see profit, I take it, and if the move continues, I just get in again.
I watch CSS, use 10.7 on 4hr & 30m - I still like Dummy Lights, and use TMA. I accept a 10% drawdown, but try to stay under that. My trading is now relaxed, routine, and satisfying as those little trades mount up. I used to be taught to aim for a "home run" every week (100 pips) Now I can achieve that most days (on average). This is not to boast - but to encourage others.

So, for lurkers like me, please keep trying, it takes time, but with perseverance it can happen

Thank you Bob for your kindness & patience

Vivienne

Thank you for sharing. I may post this in the philosophy of trading section just so others can read it and gain encouragement.

[SpiderX]

Hi Bob,

any idea how Israel tensions (and now also potential Russia tensions) will impact the currencies ?

cheers

[nanningbob]

Hi Bob,

any idea how Israel tensions (and now also potential Russia tensions) will impact the currencies ?

cheers

Well we saw what happened to the JPY when a plane gets shot down. I wish I could predict this stuff but I have not seen market moves during times of war. I expect the JPY to recover over the next couple of days so I am selling or fading the move now.

[SpiderX]

Well we saw what happened to the JPY when a plane gets shot down. I wish I could predict this stuff but I have not seen market moves during times of war. I expect the JPY to recover over the next couple of days so I am selling or fading the move now.

What is the relationship ?
Why did JPY get hit ?

Cheers

[nanningbob]

Well we saw what happened to the JPY when a plane gets shot down. I wish I could predict this stuff but I have not seen market moves during times of war. I expect the JPY to recover over the next couple of days so I am selling or fading the move now.

What is the relationship ?
Why did JPY get hit ?

Cheers

In Asia the safety currency is JPY, it is the 3rd largest economy in the world and considered safe despite its debt. The RMB is not internationally traded, very small still, and the NZD and AUD are considered high risk as commodity currencies in times of serious trouble. See 2007-08 drop. Other Asian currencies are simply too small on the international scene to merit safety.

CHF was the safety currency in Europe but finished that off by tieing itself to the EURO. The USD is the worldwide safety currency if things get that bad, like 2007-08. I understand the USD and CHF and to a lesser extent GBP but the JPY I understand less as a safety currency mainly due to its debt.

[astral77]

Hi Bob,
any idea how Israel tensions (and now also potential Russia tensions) will impact the currencies ?
cheers

IMHO this is not tension but business as usual. Netenyahu is playing the tough strong leader in order to get brownie points with the Israeli electorate. Same with Hamas, they have fired hundreds of missiles and none of them reached the target. So what is the point of wasting ammunition? The regions big boys (i.e. Egypt, Syria, etc) have problems of their own. The so called moderate Arabs are more in the Israeli camp due to their fear or some say competition with Iran.

As for the Russia tensions. They are one of the big boys and no one can touch them. Nothing happened when other civilian airlines were shot down by the big boys (look up Korean airline incident of 1982 and Iranair incident of 1988). So BUSINESS AS USUAL. Only the innocent suffer

Kind Regards

[nanningbob]

IMHO this is not tension but business as usual. Netenyahu is playing the tough strong leader in order to get brownie points with the Israeli electorate. Same with Hamas, they have fired hundreds of missiles and none of them reached the target. So what is the point of wasting ammunition? The regions big boys (i.e. Egypt, Syria, etc) have problems of their own. The so called moderate Arabs are more in the Israeli camp due to their fear or some say competition with Iran.

As for the Russia tensions. They are one of the big boys and no one can touch them. Nothing happened when other civilian airlines were shot down by the big boys (look up Korean airline incident of 1982 and Iranair incident of 1988). So BUSINESS AS USUAL. Only the innocent suffer

Kind Regards

Just to add some thoughts, Russia was being hammered by the European banks through the Crete/Cypress bank crisis. Many of those deposits that they took a big tax on were Russian (some say Mafia). Anyway Russia is looking for payback and Ukraine gives them that door. Add to that the distrust between Ukrainians and Russia and the bad borders that make up Ukraine (I understand Stalin drew the lines) you will have conflict for generations guaranteed.

Does this affect Forex trading? Except for news spurts, that will go one direction or the other for a day or two and then retrace back, I dont see any real reason to see anything here that could cause a long term trend change. Basically prices have retraced back to where they were from the news spike. I played the moves back to the median and did well Thursday and Friday, FINALLY.

Personal politics aside, I hope the USA just plays the role of a barking dog and nothing else. Really not our problem. The Euro banks screwed the pooch and we should just stay out and let them find some way to settle. Until the big money Russians get their money back this area of the world is going to be a very tentative one.

I don't mean to offend any Russian or Ukrainian folk just my personal observations, that's all.

[nanningbob]

Concerning Israel we have been down this road before. Unless oil flow is disrupted somehow I dont see it affecting Forex. There is not a major currency in the Middle East that affects the majors so unless something really unusual happens I dont expect any major moves caused in the Forex world. That changes though if it affects oil flow.

[nanningbob]

OK I decided to go back to the 24 CSS I used in the past. Not so much because it wasnt working but I was missing one of my favorite pairs to trade the aud/chf and my least favorite pair gbp/chf. Gonna get my money back from the gbp/chf. So here goes. Last week we pointed out that everything was going back to the middle. It did and then Thursday finally saw some movement and prices breaking out. Now the question is will they move some this week also. We will see so here are my brave predictions.

eur, chf, nzd, and cad moving down and probably continue. I see no reason why any should change at this point. The eur/usd bounced off the 1.3500 mark again, we will see if it weakens or continues its ranging. More about nzd later.

usd, and aud going up. China had several provinces announces some major long term projects this week which should give the aud some push. That means the nzd will follow at some point, probably end of the week or early next week. I will be looking for nzd upward movement if the aud continues moving up.

usd being the world's safety currency moved up with several news stories that gave the market some jitters. With QE3 being over in October, strengthening through the summer and into the fall is possible but I expect it to be some kind of herky jerky affair.

gbp and jpy. gbp loves the middle so I would expect it to take off too much. After a lot of fanfare the BOJ seems to be satisfied with the levels the jpy is at for now so it will continue to range in the areas its been all year. It doesnt look like the jpy will depreciate significantly this summer so I may find a reason to finally buy the thing after a year of just selling the jpy.

It is summer time, it is range time, the best indi would be your TMA or BB and go top to bottom and bottom to top. That seems to be what 2014 is going to be all about. Stability with currency prices.