nanningbob » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:20 pm wrote:OK I decided to go back to the 24 CSS I used in the past. Not so much because it wasnt working but I was missing one of my favorite pairs to trade the aud/chf and my least favorite pair gbp/chf. Gonna get my money back from the gbp/chf. So here goes. Last week we pointed out that everything was going back to the middle. It did and then Thursday finally saw some movement and prices breaking out. Now the question is will they move some this week also. We will see so here are my brave predictions.
eur, chf, nzd, and cad moving down and probably continue. I see no reason why any should change at this point. The eur/usd bounced off the 1.3500 mark again, we will see if it weakens or continues its ranging. More about nzd later.
eur, chf, nzd and cad continued moving down. NZD had a big drop for doing nothing with their interest rate in the middle of the week. I do not think that changes long term fundamentals. I would expect it to recover this drop and move back to its median this week. With the highest interest rate pay out it will recover so I will look for entrances back into a move back to center.
eur, chf--eur finally broke the 1.35 level on the USD. How far will it go now ...................... I do believe it will drop more but being summertime that process maybe slow. Depends on Ukraine and Middle East. Read a good article last week on how the eur and chf are not considered safety currencies so as the world gets more unsettled drops in these can be expected. In other words these two will be very news reactive to the downside if war escalates and upside if things settle.
cad is in a DT but as USD picks up it could follow but later.
usd, and aud going up. China had several provinces announces some major long term projects this week which should give the aud some push. That means the nzd will follow at some point, probably end of the week or early next week. I will be looking for nzd upward movement if the aud continues moving up.
Blew that call on the NZD but I feel the drop is temporary. I consider the move an over reaction but that is Forex. aud and usd going up should continue but I expect it to be a herky jerky affair unless the world situation deteriorates more and more. Then a run to the USD would be expected. Russia making a strong move into the Ukraine or Others getting involved in the Israel conflict would push people more for the security of the USD.
usd being the world's safety currency moved up with several news stories that gave the market some jitters. With QE3 being over in October, strengthening through the summer and into the fall is possible but I expect it to be some kind of herky jerky affair.
I would continue to look for USD strength.
gbp and jpy. gbp loves the middle so I would expect it to take off too much. After a lot of fanfare the BOJ seems to be satisfied with the levels the jpy is at for now so it will continue to range in the areas its been all year. It doesnt look like the jpy will depreciate significantly this summer so I may find a reason to finally buy the thing after a year of just selling the jpy.
gbp back to the center as expected, I expect it to stay there. It is in a funny position of being Europe's safety currency now instead of the chf but it gets dragged down by the euro when it takes a dive soooooooooo we will see if it can stay in the middle of this time or fade to the downside. I do not expect its down side to be as steep as the euro but moves from top to bottom or bottom to top on the TMA would make good sense.
JPY is the Asian safety currency and with Japan quiet on the depreciation front for now it will probably stay to the upside. I am not expecting it to go down at this point but it could have some upside if the markets get jittery with the news around the world.
It is summer time, it is range time, the best indi would be your TMA or BB and go top to bottom and bottom to top. That seems to be what 2014 is going to be all about. Stability with currency prices.
One final note on China, the present leadership is going hot and heavy against important people from the previous administration. This happens every change of leadership but I have not seen them go after so many and so high before. They are now investigating people who were one or two levels below Hu Jin Tao the previous leader. That could have repercussions but how big I dont know. Just be aware that if and when these kind of stories break they should have affect on Asian currencies. I am not sure how China affects Asian currencies politically but it could cause the JPY to rise. Interesting if is does.
Have a good week, it is beginning to look like the range times maybe over and strong trends are possible in the summer. IN THE SUMMERTIME???? I cant believe I said that.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cad slide began to taper but was still downward across the board. I would expect to see some recovery or a breather here in its DT. If the USD run is over then CAD will come up as the USD goes down. If USD continues strong then the CAD probably will stay near the bottom.
NZD slide continued early in the week but started to strengthen as the week wore on. It looks like it will follow the AUD back up. How strong will be the key. Watch the AUD if it keeps its 2nd place and stays high then I would expect the NZD to follow and regain at least some if not most of its drop.
GBP stayed in the middle but seems to be drifting down. Eur and CHF caught up with it in the middle. I would be very interested in Eur/gbp and gbp/chf sells if they cross. However, Ukraine war news could send the eur and chf downward and probably take the gbp with it.
USD up up and away again, however, the news was mixed on Friday so I would expect it to level and start coming back down. However, it is still the #1 strong currency at the moment.
JPY beginning of the month drop but these have been small and limited lately. Probably again this month and strengthen later when the bond sales are done. Word is if JPY wants to weaken more it will have to increase its bond sales, however, BOJ is basically the only buyer of the bonds. Interesting dilemma, being the seller and buyer of your bonds. NO I dont want to try to explain that one. At least the USA was buying up bad mortgages and has a chance of getting some if not all of its money back in .................. ohhhhhhhhhhhh ......... 10-20 years. If we have enough inflation to move that dead paper up. Anyway chart is below.
Dont know how long I should keep doing this. Very little discussion in this thread so may quit my weekly reports. I think I have taught enough for most to get it by now.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
hi bob, dont stop your report, its summeretime, all still here, but in the uk we are having a decent summer for a change, so people taking holidays etc, enjoying the nice weather
art » Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:38 pm wrote:hi bob, dont stop your report, its summeretime, all still here, but in the uk we are having a decent summer for a change, so people taking holidays etc, enjoying the nice weather
I'm not in the UK, but agree with the rest. Really informative posts every week, I always look out for it!
please dont stop the analysis, its very helpful. i really like this CSS tool, relatively new to using it, and finding it takes a lot of the guesswork/subjectivity out of weekly preplanning analysis. very versatile and can be used with any system in my opinion
