nanningbob » Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:09 am wrote:
Well I havent done many positive multiple trades this year because the market has been so rangy until this month. Then I missed them. I have been trying to trade off the top and bottom of the TMA because the market has been so rangy and if it bursts against me I have been taken 2nd level trades.
The other thing I will do is stay with what I believe is a long term trend so I havent been closing my most of my losing NZD trades. I probably will close out the nzd/usd one but the eur/nzd I am still in because I expect the euro to continue down and the NZD to go up.
So there are no hard fast rules other than you dont want to get caught with multiple trades on a trend reversal. As long as i am in the long term trend I will hang with a trade. So monthly charts are the tool I use to follow long term trends. Here is a pic of the monthly charts of eur/usd so you can see what I mean.
I have done almost no euro buys this year and only concentrated on selling it. When I have bought a euro buy I have gotten my head on a platter. So for now and probably the rest of the year I will be doing euro sells. The big event that could make the euro reverse to a buy for a short term is if Russia and Ukraine quit fighting and long term solution comes into play.
Thank you Bob for your explanation.
I find it dificult also this year.
One more thing Bob, hypothetically if the comodity and the currency strengthen although the fundamentals weakens, can we expect a shorterm uptrend, say, one week?
And about trading off the top and bottom of the TMA, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are far below the bottom of Daily TMA, shouldn't they have to go up for retracement?
nanningbob » Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:09 am wrote:
Well I havent done many positive multiple trades this year because the market has been so rangy until this month. Then I missed them. I have been trying to trade off the top and bottom of the TMA because the market has been so rangy and if it bursts against me I have been taken 2nd level trades.
The other thing I will do is stay with what I believe is a long term trend so I havent been closing my most of my losing NZD trades. I probably will close out the nzd/usd one but the eur/nzd I am still in because I expect the euro to continue down and the NZD to go up.
So there are no hard fast rules other than you dont want to get caught with multiple trades on a trend reversal. As long as i am in the long term trend I will hang with a trade. So monthly charts are the tool I use to follow long term trends. Here is a pic of the monthly charts of eur/usd so you can see what I mean.
I have done almost no euro buys this year and only concentrated on selling it. When I have bought a euro buy I have gotten my head on a platter. So for now and probably the rest of the year I will be doing euro sells. The big event that could make the euro reverse to a buy for a short term is if Russia and Ukraine quit fighting and long term solution comes into play.
Thank you Bob for your explanation.
I find it dificult also this year.
One more thing Bob, hypothetically if the comodity and the currency strengthen although the fundamentals weakens, can we expect a shorterm uptrend, say, one week?
And about trading off the top and bottom of the TMA, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are far below the bottom of Daily TMA, shouldn't they have to go up for retracement?
The problem is the quiet month of August has not been so quiet. Pairs have been busting out of their ranges and have made TMA trading more risky. Yes you can expect a rally in a DT or a dip in an UT. So prices can retrace from a fundamental for a week or even longer. In fact if a currency is in a long DT/UT for the year there are entire months price can retrace, so you still go with your reads on a lower chart. However, I try to watch the fundamentals and try not to take unnecessary losses. Still, I try to stay under that 10% DD figure as my total of my account and lately been trying to keep it under 5%.
The problem I have now is I have stopped trading with I B F X USA and am just doing another's account. I tried trading FIFO and then these breakouts happened and I just closed them up and said that's it. So I am looking at CITI Bank FX because they are not covered by NFA being a bank. So Probably I will be going with them in Sept. I am waiting for all my money from several accounts to be credited and then I will put up the 10K needed to start with them. If I like them I will increase my account.
OK here is my answer to FIFO. This template is good for the 1H chart. I borrowed from BOLDTRADER his sessions indi so you would know when to set your trades during the EURO session. Using Steve's EA designed for 10.7 the buy or sell you should have some good trades during the week almost every day. Anyway take a look. Anyway this is designed for the 1H chart and I have added some small changes to 10.7 for adaptations.
Here are the adaptations:
1. TMA adjusted to 2.5 and 4.5. On a chart at the beginning of the week each line will almost correspond with with the weekly pivot and S/R 1&2. Shades of 10.2 and 10.4. I made this change a couple of weeks ago and its kind of uncanny how it seems to work. It works best on the 4H but is pretty accurate on the 1H also. As the week progresses they will move but I like the way they line up. Obviously you can use these lines for TP and SL placements.
2. Borrowed the period range box from BoldTrader's thread. I colored the screen so only the EURO session is showing. If you want the JPY and USA sessions to show just change the back ground color and you will see them also. So trading the 10.9 v4.0 with trade setups showing either just before or after the EURO session start gives a specific point to trade from.
3. I kept the weekly pivot and S/R boxes, I really like them. You can read about how to use weekly P/S/R in the 10.2 and 10.4 threads. I dropped the DO/WO/MO boxes.
4 I put the market watch back in the right hand corner and had Milanese add swap and spreads to the chart.
5. I am using the 10.9 in case some want to add the monthly bar in the bottom indi. I figured it was not really needed with the 1H chart. I also took out the daily yellow STO lines for now. I just want to trade in the direction of the weekly trend. So STO7 warnings only to the weekly STO is shown.
The rules are very simple. Probably Mondays you will pass (I probably wont) and trade TUES to FRIDAY. By then the Weekly STO direction is set (BUT NOT ALWAYS). An hour before the EURO session look to trade the STO7 in the direction of the weekly PINK line. Set up your trade or Steve's EA and go with it.
Take profit halfway through the EURO session/hour before the USA session OR decide if you want to keep it through 2-3 hours into the USA session. Close up shop and trade the next day.
Again, This is for a 1H chart. I looked at it on the 30M chart and you can get some nice trades but also get more signals which can lead to getting in too early. Most of the trades will be winners and others you discard if it just isnt going right.
Anyway have fun testing it out. Attached is the eur/cad 1H for examples.
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I probably do not follow the rules to the "T" but not bad for the first day / attempt....
Quick question - to apply this to H4 all the settings remain the same or which ones need to be adjusted?
Cheers & thanks again for sharing this with us...
I am focusing on day trading and becoming FIFO compliant in my trading so the 1H chart during the EURO session and beginning of USA session is when I have time to trade now with my new schedule. So just testing this. I am also working on a certain kind of CSS cross on a lower TF to confirm the trade. Got some bugs to work out on that one. So you would only make the trade with confirmation of a CSS cross lets say on the 5M or 15M chart with the STO7 to the weekly on the 1H. Pretty much filter out strong up moves except for news spikes or news stories. So you would be using a signal from the weekly, hourly, and a low time frame to enter. Then I think I can trade that stupid FIFO thing. Anyway just my thoughts and where I am going with this.
I probably do not follow the rules to the "T" but not bad for the first day / attempt....
Quick question - to apply this to H4 all the settings remain the same or which ones need to be adjusted?
Cheers & thanks again for sharing this with us...
I think the new TMA numbers match up well with the Weekly P/S/R lines on the 4H chart. That is something I have not fully worked out yet but brings 10.4 back into full play again. But now they are dynamic. See if that makes a difference with 4H trading.
Hi bob not been around much, I'm away for a week would like to put an EA on the new system, can you direct me to the correct one, I'm thinking of setting up a vps server while I'm away , cheers
art » Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:23 pm wrote:Hi bob not been around much, I'm away for a week would like to put an EA on the new system, can you direct me to the correct one, I'm thinking of setting up a vps server while I'm away , cheers
I think this is it on page 1 post 1 but I am not sure.
