nanningbob » Wed Sep 03, 2014 3:23 pm wrote:TraderDesk » Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:27 pm wrote:Checking the daily CSS on my screen and I noticed that all the currencies I follow are showing either a strong bull trend or bear trend. None of the currencies are within the 0.2/-0.2 lines. When was the last time you saw that happen?
It will do that when something is running amok. Weak volume and strong news will do that. Probably the last time was spring and early summer 2013 with the JPY run. Sorry to say I missed this and was not expecting it to happen in August. I was suspecting something like this in the fall but not now so messed up royally on this one.
August is a month that every trader will do well to be especially on the look-out for. It is the month when many systems that had been working well seem, all of a sudden to fail and get abandoned, unknown to the user that the blip was just a temporary spanner thrown into the works by the atypical market in this crazy month.
It appears to be preceded in late July by a lull in which the Global Market Trend indi falls below 0.25. At this level, the market is in a consolidation peak, a coiled-spring state that could breakout in any direction at any time. New trends begin, meaning that previous ones may actually do a complete U-turn. It is the MOST UNPREDICTABLE period in the market cycle. It is best at this time to quit trading for 24 to 48 hours and just wait for the market to show its hand; to let a course be set before trading again.
When the breakout occurs, one particular pair seems to play the renegade and to defy all reason. It just keeps going and going! You will find its component currencies at the top and bottom of the D1 CSS. In August 2013, it was EURGBP and I recall that it cost me a pretty penny then!!! This last August, it was GBPUSD. Fortunately, I was better prepared this time around!
So, henceforth beware the month of August and the pair that may turn out to be its renegade.