MTF Trading System - fxozgirl Higher Time Frame spinoff

[nald50]

Evening Fxozgirl,
Just stumbled upon your thread to-day....Looks interesting..Whilst I believe that daily charts are the way to go things have changed over the last several years re good trends(Just my humble opinion).This may well provide me with "Chateau Cask" money Currently testing on 4hr/1hr charts as from to-day, as well as your weekly/daily plan.
Thanks for taking the time to share your plan.We all know that time is a precious commodity.
Good to see another Melbourne Town person from this great City.
All the best.
Ronald

[fxozgirl]

Interesting point incust.
I think the exit strategy is still pending Shelley ?

Effectively to make it worthwhile each trade has to average over 10%.
So from my understanding Shelley is trading with a BE at 100+5pips and steps every 50.
So at 150 pips 50 pips are locked in and at 200 there are 100pips locked in. Hope that is right ?

So if it kicks back and your trade is taken out after 100 you gain 5pips less spread and at 150 you gain 50pips.
Just wondering if taking half the profit at some point may be more effective or setting a high TP? Your call Shelley and I do thank you for all your effort. It is exciting to see your results.

The exit strategy is still pending...however I am going to give this a try! It may well address the concerns about when to exit bad trades as well as locking in profits.

I have tried taking half profit in previous strategies that I have created (namely BASA) but found there is a need to maintain full size trades to help in counteracting the occasional big loser.

I will monitor this exit strategy over the next few weeks.

Cheers
Shelley

[fxozgirl]

MPTM kicked in over night and closed all trades. As it turned out, the balance probably would have been a lot higher given the movement over night, however I want to see if this exit strategy is worthwhile. Time will tell!

Balance: $6231.97

so in excess of 20% in a month with drawdown less than 5%

The plan is not to just jump straight back in to trades that may still be valid right now, but may be near the end of a run...I will wait for a new set up/re-entry as per rules before taking a new trade.

One other thing...although this is demo, I do try to trade exactly like I would on my live account and so, as I am minimising my trading on my live account right now, given this demo is now flat, I am actually going to stop trading until after the Scotland vote as I believe the markets are going to be extremely volatile for the next couple of days.

MTF_results_18.9.2014.png

[spotdespot]

I am not convinced of trading this like a basket Shelley. Basket trading works best (imo) when you have an edge in one direction for the trades and you are pretty sure some will go against you but the majority will go the way you expect.

With your strategy on the Daily for John's MTF system you have a far bigger edge for each individual trade. Some of your trades could go in to 1000's of pips with a good run and you are in danger of cutting those big runs short and potentially having to wait a considerable time/a lot of "lost" pips worth before you can re-enter.

The old adage of cut your losers and let your winners run really should be relevant when your winners could be huge; cutting them, potentially in their prime, seems a shame.

How about using something like the attached indi from Igorad and mladen at forex-tsd - close on change of direction. This is based on volatility and is pretty damn clever imo. You might not like it and you certainly wouldn't couldn't use it for entries. Just an idea but it would suggest that all your trades were good and shouldn't be closed (if no Scottish referendum anyway!).

This shows what it looks like for USDJPY (cherry picking a bit but it highlights the point).

Cheers,
Dave.

[intcust]

I am not convinced of trading this like a basket Shelley. Basket trading works best (imo) when you have an edge in one direction for the trades and you are pretty sure some will go against you but the majority will go the way you expect.

With your strategy on the Daily for John's MTF system you have a far bigger edge for each individual trade. Some of your trades could go in to 1000's of pips with a good run and you are in danger of cutting those big runs short and potentially having to wait a considerable time/a lot of "lost" pips worth before you can re-enter.

The old adage of cut your losers and let your winners run really should be relevant when your winners could be huge; cutting them, potentially in their prime, seems a shame.

How about using something like the attached indi from Igorad and mladen at forex-tsd - close on change of direction. This is based on volatility and is pretty damn clever imo. You might not like it and you certainly wouldn't couldn't use it for entries. Just an idea but it would suggest that all your trades were good and shouldn't be closed (if no Scottish referendum anyway!).

This shows what it looks like for USDJPY (cherry picking a bit but it highlights the point).

Cheers,
Dave.

Dave,

Does the indicator close at line cross or the dot. If line cross then the trade would have closed prior to the big move up. Unless you make sure candle is close. If dot then the stop becomes huge. Closing is always the problem with any trade. Maybe it is a combination of taking half the positions off at 10% equity and letting the other half run. Then reenter trades per entry rules but you should have positive positions on the half that was left in. This way you are not all in or out all at once. My biggest fear is between the entry and first 100 pips. If some big news hits then boom you are in trouble if it is against you. If you enter one trade at a time then it is not so bad but you might loose a lot of trade opportunities. Hey do the math on 20% a month compounded for a year starting at say only $5,000.00. It is over $44,000.00 and almost $400,000.00 in two years. That works but it is also a lot of money in play during the second year one needs to protect. Lots of good minds hear we should be able to come up with something that grows the acct. 10%-20% a month is fine for me and still protects the acct. incase of extreme movement against one.

incust

[intcust]

MPTM kicked in over night and closed all trades. As it turned out, the balance probably would have been a lot higher given the movement over night, however I want to see if this exit strategy is worthwhile. Time will tell!

Balance: $6231.97

so in excess of 20% in a month with drawdown less than 5%

The plan is not to just jump straight back in to trades that may still be valid right now, but may be near the end of a run...I will wait for a new set up/re-entry as per rules before taking a new trade.

One other thing...although this is demo, I do try to trade exactly like I would on my live account and so, as I am minimising my trading on my live account right now, given this demo is now flat, I am actually going to stop trading until after the Scotland vote as I believe the markets are going to be extremely volatile for the next couple of days.

are you going to increase lot size from 05 with the higher balance to say .06?

[intcust]

just closed eur cad on a retrace net around 150 pips. so I am flat with this system at current time. Good call Shelly. So far all green pips with this system so with that said I will tank then next few trades.

incust

[fxozgirl]

Evening Fxozgirl,
Just stumbled upon your thread to-day....Looks interesting..Whilst I believe that daily charts are the way to go things have changed over the last several years re good trends(Just my humble opinion).This may well provide me with "Chateau Cask" money Currently testing on 4hr/1hr charts as from to-day, as well as your weekly/daily plan.
Thanks for taking the time to share your plan.We all know that time is a precious commodity.
Good to see another Melbourne Town person from this great City.
All the best.
Ronald

Hi Ronald,
You're right, trending markets seem to be a thing of the past...but hopefully we can still pick up a few sustained runs.
Keep us informed of your results

Cheers
Shelley

[fxozgirl]

I am not convinced of trading this like a basket Shelley. Basket trading works best (imo) when you have an edge in one direction for the trades and you are pretty sure some will go against you but the majority will go the way you expect.

With your strategy on the Daily for John's MTF system you have a far bigger edge for each individual trade. Some of your trades could go in to 1000's of pips with a good run and you are in danger of cutting those big runs short and potentially having to wait a considerable time/a lot of "lost" pips worth before you can re-enter.

The old adage of cut your losers and let your winners run really should be relevant when your winners could be huge; cutting them, potentially in their prime, seems a shame.

How about using something like the attached indi from Igorad and mladen at forex-tsd - close on change of direction. This is based on volatility and is pretty damn clever imo. You might not like it and you certainly wouldn't couldn't use it for entries. Just an idea but it would suggest that all your trades were good and shouldn't be closed (if no Scottish referendum anyway!).

This shows what it looks like for USDJPY (cherry picking a bit but it highlights the point).

Cheers,
Dave.

Dave, you make some good points...but in the case of a sustained run, there is almost always a pullback of at least 1 candle that would provide an opportunity to re-enter.

I do value your comments and taken them on board, so I have removed the 10% closure on my demo account in my sig and will revert to the same rules of closure that I have been following so far but I have set up a 2nd demo that will include the mptm 10% closure, that way we can see the difference side by side.

I've had a busy weekend, but will look at the indicator you posted tonight!

Cheers
Shelley

[fxozgirl]

MPTM kicked in over night and closed all trades. As it turned out, the balance probably would have been a lot higher given the movement over night, however I want to see if this exit strategy is worthwhile. Time will tell!

Balance: $6231.97

so in excess of 20% in a month with drawdown less than 5%

The plan is not to just jump straight back in to trades that may still be valid right now, but may be near the end of a run...I will wait for a new set up/re-entry as per rules before taking a new trade.

One other thing...although this is demo, I do try to trade exactly like I would on my live account and so, as I am minimising my trading on my live account right now, given this demo is now flat, I am actually going to stop trading until after the Scotland vote as I believe the markets are going to be extremely volatile for the next couple of days.

are you going to increase lot size from 05 with the higher balance to say .06?

Yes, I'm trading 0.1 per $1000, so all new trades will be 0.6 lots