TMA MACD Trader

[McNish]

Hello All.
I have been trading the FX since about 18 months now. Every now and then I come across a system which promises potential, developed by either a forum member or some fancy of my own. But most of them fail me for various reasons - incorrect money management, late entries, missed entries, lack of confidance in a trade setup, news spiking price the other way, etc. At times I would feel that a certain system is doing well and be pepped up about it only to change my mind later.

Of late, I picked a tool from NB10.2 and adjusted the variables to align with my charts. Gradually a lot of pieces fell in place after that. Now it's been some time that I have refined the setup with rules and I would say the strike rate is a good 7 / 10. None the less, I don't have much to show for it as I trade it manually and miss most of the trades. Say the ones that I do catch have only 4 / 10 strike rate and I am very pissed at that since I know that the system works only if one catches all the valid trades. Thus I'm putting up the system here with the rules and the works and see if coders find any value in it and lend a helping hand to develop a robust and consistent system.

[Jemook]

Shoot away mate, members here can never have enough systems to play with

[McNish]

Thanks Jem.

So here we go.
Brief : It's a very simple system. We determine trend first with the help of two indicators - Macd and TMA. When both are in confluence, we take trades on pullbacks with the help of Heiken Ashi. This is where the entry is supposed to be and that too in H1. Then there are rules which are set for money management of position sizing, SL, BE, PTP (Partial Take Profit), TSL and adding positions.

Detail : We need a confluence of the given MACD's OSMA histogram with the TMA True channel mid line (params 80,80,4). This determines the trend. Then we look for the swing of price action in the determined direction with the help of HA ( Heiken Ashi ). The H1 candle has to close with the color change of HA either below the channel mid line or at least with the same trend as of the channel mid line. The close also must also be within the channel. Thus we have 4 rules for entry.

1. OSMA histogram - No trades against this. Some borderline trades can miss out but that is for later.
2. THA - a.Mid Line Trend (and / or) b.Close on the favorable side of the Mid line.
3. TMA Range - Candle close has to be within this.
4. HA colour flip - The last mile. Swing of price action.

Money Management : This is where the system can be made adaptable. Lot sizing and Stop Loss can be starting points.

Lots Sizing : According to the strength of the trend, one may increase of decrease their position size on each trade. That would be rule 1 & 2, the color of the histogram and TMA. If the histogram indicates a strong trend , we can add to minimum position size. Similarly if both condition a. & b. of rule 2 are true, we can add to minimum position size.

Stop Loss : The SL is +/-5 pips of the swing H/L of the last 5 bars including this bar that is considered for entry, i.e when the current bar closes confirming to the given 4 rules, trade is triggered on the open of the new bar and the swing H/L of the last 5 bars is the SL. Now this distance would determine if this is a worthy entry or not 'coz sometimes the SL distance according to this setup is large enough for me to let go of the trade. One can make this optional to a certain amount of pips only. This can further be subjected to the pair being traded. So that's a start to being adaptable for this system ,IMO.

Take Profit, BE, TSL and Adding positions : You decide what you want it to be according to the first two criteria given above (size and SL). I play it this way. Take part profit on 1:1 RR of SL, find a good level & set BE to +/- 5 of entry, trail by 50 odd pips the rest of the position till another trade is triggered and set SL for current trade at the SL level of the new trade from this system, i.e next price swing of HA in favor of current trend. This way one can trail the positions and adjust their SL's and also add positions gradually every time the price swings and the rules are met.

Posting the set of indi's for the same. Will post charts from time to time with comments to clear the picture. More in Next.

[McNish]

Some charts.

EU missed trade on the first vertical line. Second trade, bar not closed yet but this is where all EA will eventually fail at some point or another. Also the second eu trade will not meet the sell criteria as the bar (if it will) close outside the range of the channel as did the last swing which is in between the two vertical lines, thus is unmarked. But while I'm at the screen, I'll know better than the EA, so I've taken a trade there.

Same goes for UC. More in next.

[McNish]

Some more.

[McNish]

This is how the canvas looks at my end. All Euro except EurChf, all Usd and 4 Yens - EJ, UJ, GJ, AJ. 14 in all. Gives decent co-relation.

[McNish]

Now u see, some good trades will be missed and some bad ones taken but that's as far as EA's go. This is where the human element comes in, in the form of experience and judgment.

Another note on the chart's setup. The Macd window comprises of 2 Macd's. One is in H4 tf displaying the Macd line, the histogram is that of the Macd line and Signal line and acts in more that one way, as determining trend in confluence with TMA channel lines and also to look at divergance in advance. Here if you compress the H1 charts tf to 2 levels up (press '-' sign twice), it will show as much data as in normal mode of H4. Try this. Observe the TMA Channel here is the same if you remove PA and look, as compared to the normal params of NB system (20, 20, 2) in H4 mode. Giving a pic below to explain better. Also see the MACD for better reference and try to observe divergence, first on the histogram, then on the MACD line gradually (well, not on this chart but the pattern applies otherwise.)

The second Macd locked to D1 tf is just for reference and has only Macd line and 0 level plotted.

For now, when i take a trade manually, I set an EA to manage the trade as described in earlier post.

Is anyone getting the plot here??

[McNish]

Some more charts.

As you can see, I have the NB 10.3 side by side too for reference.

[McNish]

Hi Guys,

Well, I need to admit that in past couple days I've been following more of Bob's new 10.2 & 10.3 combo. Excellent and yet simple logic to go by. So what can I say, Just like the others, Thank You Mr.Bob.

Since I posted this in the current forum topic, i still have a need for specific code which eludes me. Here again, I'm basically using the structure from Paul's (Baluda) latest EA and diverging them into 2 different ea's, one for long term and one set for the scalping.

The code that misses me is how to confirm the color change of the last bar of Heiken Ashi in H1 TF at the open of the new candle also at H1 TF; and for the scalper, last bar open below and this bar open above DO/DP in 15M tf (to check cross from above / below.) I know it's sounds silly, but I see reason enough to code it.

Thus can anyone guide me here. I'm posting the code too. Thanks.

[McNish]

Hello Guys,

I've just had a eureka moment. Thought I'll just shout out here. Yeah Man !!!