The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[dudest]

...

I have preached here countless times, that the patterns FIRST appear on the lower time frames, the smallest being the "tick" chart, and "mature" into the patterns on the higher time frame charts at various times. Nothing has changed...

When you see a "spike" on a lower time frame, what can you expect on a higher time frame? The same "spike", at a later time. If you see a 100 pip price spike on a 15m chart,, what would you expect price to do when that pattern matures on the 4hr, D1 or M1 chart? Simple, the price spike in pips is much larger due to the scale or time frame of the chart.... nothing has changed and the move was not "unexpected".

...

Spike Hunting season just opened!

wile.e.coyote.hunting.jpg

[Dagu]

Read this
http://www.alpari.com/company-news/post ... ouncement/

: P

[ash.invest]

CJ - Could you please elaborate on what you saw on the chart that made you predict this monthly movement.

1. You accurately predicted the up move from Pt 12 to 13 and that 13 will be lower than 11.
2. You accurately predicted the down move from 13 to 14 and that 14 will be higher than 12.
3. You accurately predicted the up move from 14 to 15 and that 15 will be almost same level as 13.
4. You accurately predicted the down move from 16 to 16 and that 16 will be the same level as 2 (not 12, 8, or 10)

I am seeing some of the things that you have talked about in this thread, but this particular price prediction from you is whole another level of looking at repetitive patterns.

Thank you,
Ash

Glad to see some of you guys are really starting to "get it" and are "seeing" clearly. Would you have arrived at this point sooner had I been posting every day?

I don't think so....

A blast from the past... almost 3 years back that this appeared on FF...

Is price random? NOT AT ALL! If you believe anything different, this thread is not for you because you've effectively blinded yourself and will never "see" the truth...

[Piter80]

My today's pick up,bit too high.
Like Daggerfall write "one day,one best pattern"

EURJPYH4.png

EURJPYDaily.png

EURJPYM15.png

and my map for first pair on my Empty4.

AUDCADDaily.png

[Piter80]

That will be busy weekend

[Captain Jack]

CJ - Could you please elaborate on what you saw on the chart that made you predict this monthly movement.

1. You accurately predicted the up move from Pt 12 to 13 and that 13 will be lower than 11.
2. You accurately predicted the down move from 13 to 14 and that 14 will be higher than 12.
3. You accurately predicted the up move from 14 to 15 and that 15 will be almost same level as 13.
4. You accurately predicted the down move from 16 to 16 and that 16 will be the same level as 2 (not 12, 8, or 10)

I am seeing some of the things that you have talked about in this thread, but this particular price prediction from you is whole another level of looking at repetitive patterns.

Thank you,
Ash

Glad to see some of you guys are really starting to "get it" and are "seeing" clearly. Would you have arrived at this point sooner had I been posting every day?

I don't think so....

A blast from the past... almost 3 years back that this appeared on FF...

Is price random? NOT AT ALL! If you believe anything different, this thread is not for you because you've effectively blinded yourself and will never "see" the truth...

Nothing more than what I've been saying for 500+ pages... patterns repeat. That the patterns you see on th higher time frames have already appeared on the lower time frames.

You will also notice that I predicted that point 15 would be slightly higher than point 13, not below or not the same...but slightly higher.

I also mentioned in the FF thread that 3 years ago, I had already plotted out the EURUSD for 29 points in the future and that EURUSD will be much lower in the future than the lowest point on the indicated chart.

How can that be and what "news" or unexpected announcements in the future will lead to this decline?

-CJ-

[Captain Jack]

Read this
http://www.alpari.com/company-news/post ... ouncement/

: P

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... start=5370

Please read my lengthy post near the bottom of this page.... now you know why I pulled my funds some time ago. The majority of which was with FXCM at the time. FXCM has been buying up a good number of US retail brokers accounts including Cowboy IBFX, Alpari, Forex.com and several others.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=521891

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/swiss-sho ... 48519.html

The Fox feeds his cubs well this week but the wolves still circle his den....

-CJ-

[Piter80]

Hi Guys
What are You think?

GBPAUDDaily.png

[ash.invest]

CJ - Thank you for posting the EURCHF M5 and H4 charts to really make it wide open how patterns repeat.

Would you have any suggestions / insights on how to remember these patterns ? How do you take a pattern from a lower time frame and apply it to higher time frames ? The lower time frames have so much data and after certain days, the chart will not be able to hold that data.

Q. Do you have excellent memory ?
Q. Do you scan lower timeframes back to years and then open parallel charts on higher TF to look for similar patterns ?
Q. Do you generally focus on easily recognizable patterns (in this case: M and W, flags and large moves) on lower TF and then immediately start looking for the same pattern to repeat on higher TF ?

Thanks again for taking the time out to respond.

CJ - Could you please elaborate on what you saw on the chart that made you predict this monthly movement.

1. You accurately predicted the up move from Pt 12 to 13 and that 13 will be lower than 11.
2. You accurately predicted the down move from 13 to 14 and that 14 will be higher than 12.
3. You accurately predicted the up move from 14 to 15 and that 15 will be almost same level as 13.
4. You accurately predicted the down move from 16 to 16 and that 16 will be the same level as 2 (not 12, 8, or 10)

I am seeing some of the things that you have talked about in this thread, but this particular price prediction from you is whole another level of looking at repetitive patterns.

Thank you,
Ash

Glad to see some of you guys are really starting to "get it" and are "seeing" clearly. Would you have arrived at this point sooner had I been posting every day?

I don't think so....

A blast from the past... almost 3 years back that this appeared on FF...

Is price random? NOT AT ALL! If you believe anything different, this thread is not for you because you've effectively blinded yourself and will never "see" the truth...

Nothing more than what I've been saying for 500+ pages... patterns repeat. That the patterns you see on th higher time frames have already appeared on the lower time frames.

You will also notice that I predicted that point 15 would be slightly higher than point 13, not below or not the same...but slightly higher.

I also mentioned in the FF thread that 3 years ago, I had already plotted out the EURUSD for 29 points in the future and that EURUSD will be much lower in the future than the lowest point on the indicated chart.

How can that be and what "news" or unexpected announcements in the future will lead to this decline?

-CJ-

[dudest]

From the GP thread: a very interesting observation made by smeden and niepce

yeah sound like alot of losers in this move. BUt dukascopy did send out and email about this last year and set down the margin on EURCHF to 1:10. Damm why did I not put 2 and 2 together. lol

There has been two leverages warning/capping last year (at least from ICMarkets communication I receivd)

- USDRUB leverage limited to 1:20 or something, just before the RUB crash
- EURCHF leverage limited, in december, and we know the story now.

So, what should we do next time a leverage capping occurs ?
Spot the support and straddle

You may be on to something niepce, more than you imagine

From CJ's EURCHF charts, the pattern that was the pre-cursor to Thursday's super fall was formed on.... wait for it....11th December 2014.

It was no coincidence.

So the next time a leverage capping occurs, this is what we'll do

a) zoom in to the time-frame where there is a major occurrence (e.g sharp drop or sharp rise),
b) note the pattern down, and then
c) WAIT for it to mature on the higher time-frames ( H1, H4 ) and place our positions before the major occurrence

.