The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[botrak]

AJ

ajh4.jpg

NU

nuH1.jpg

I moved SL to BE after 10 pips and got stopped. You alway say "take what is given", I was given 10 pips but this is not a target for H1 moves right? How could I predict that pullback. So hard to learn this stuff having mostly negative results. And I doubt my AUDJPY SL will hold.

NUH1v2.jpg

[Zaleske]

Good to see a few more enlightened traders doing well here....as should be cause things have not changed one bit....

One question....why do so few of you ONLY look at one time frame when the present has already been foretold in the past?

Your job is to determine which H4 map is correct







-CJ-

Dare I try to answer... both of them?

[nkosi1]

Greetings All
I am "new" to the forum, having worked my way through the various tarding styles/techniques (and having looked straight up my backside for a good while nothwithstanding the very good advice from my lovely wife re CJ and the forum - male thing aye) and now confess that CJ is bang on. I would have been a hellava lot further down the tracks if I had assimilated this much much ealier, but its never too late! So, thank you CJ, and the other outstanding contributors to this forum, and particularly you Sympathy ( I to hail from Africa). I have little knowledge to contibute, BUT, I have made a number of summaries of what is directly pertinant to me (dumb ass lawyer liked to have a document to reference!!) from the site, including CJ pdf. Much of it is cut and paste, but it short tracks much of what is discussed, with charts. If anyone would like it I guess I can figure out how to get it up here. In the meantime, here is a summary of bullet criticals - for me. Hope this helps someone else out there.

1. Homework to create your daily watch list.

A. Establish LEVELS. Start with the D1, H4 and H1 time frames, looking for level 1 or level 3's in the
bigger cycles. Do this for every pair.
B. Then drop down into the 15M and look for the correct setup to enter. Look for pairs that are at the Hi or Lo of yesterday/today, near the extremes of the ADR. Trade the "edges" in on each setup, not the centres out.
C. CJ Golden Rule
It's generally 3 to 5 days of price movement in one direction, higher or lower and these patterns are based on the 15M or 1H time frame. These patterns will repeat across all the time frames.... if you can't determine the PEAK LOW and PEAK HIGH.
The whole premiss here is to ONLY TRADE FROM THE PEAK HIGH OR THE PEAK LOW!

Your BUY or SELL should only be placed at the PEAK HIGH OR PEAK LOW when it coincides with the HOD or LOD....

PEAK HIGH? Yes.....HOD? Yes......SELL
PEAL LOW? Yes.....LOD? Yes.......BUY

PEAK HIGH? Yes...HOD? Yes.... ADR HIGH? Yes.....SELL THE SHIT OUT OF IT!!!
PEAL LOW? Yes.....LOD? Yes.....ADR LOW? Yes.....BUY THE SHIT OUT OF IT!!!!

These are the trades that run on for days.....these are the trades that will give you R:R of 10-20 or higher and cover all your small losses, where you set that tight stop ABOVE OR BELOW THE PEAK HIGH OR THE PEAK LOW....these are the trades on which to stack additional orders, when it is moving in the intended direction....YOU GOT IT RIGHT SO LAY IT TO THEM!

There are no other trades....do not take them at any other level than PEAK HIGH or PEAK LOW....
Rise or fall is determined from the PEAK HIGH or PEAK LOW, not candle open and candle close....

Summary B.
1. Grab the Asian range. Generally between 15 to 50 pips. This is the accumulation phase on low volumes.
2. Around London open, mark the Asian hi/low range.
3. Wait for the Asian breakout, no matter if it is to the upside or downside, you don't care
4. After 30 to 90min, mark the LOD/HOD (low of the day, high of the day).
5. Price will retrace a bit, now look for "M" or "W" patterns.
6. Enter short at the top, long at the bottom at the second retest. Look also for patterns like pin's, rrt, hanging man, etc in the M & W zones.
7. . Breakout traders are trapped in their breakout thing. They are now hoping the price will go at least at their entry price to exit at BE ... but price is now ranging, they are stuck ....
8 If all is ok you should be in profit
9.Around one hour after, the trend will resume and the price will be begin to drift in your direction forcing breakout trader to close their order, this will also accelerate the move.
10. Take your short position from the HOD and long position from the LOD after a M or W pattern.

Stop loss should be above the highs or lows (give enough room to avoid getting trapped by broker spread widening). If the price sky rockets to the upside or downside & you don't see a pullback or a M or W after the breakout, too bad for that one. Go hunting on another pair.

Be careful between London & NY close, there should be a pullback if the range was big. This keeps a bit of volume and money for the next day.

Summary A.
1. We're looking for the accumulation/manipulation/stop hunt phase first. The stop hunt, say there's a large pinbar dropping south, this will do two things:
A - it will trigger sellers playing breakout, ema strategies etc, and
B. - when a long position is stopped out, at that point he is forced to sell to close out his buy. So either way whether it's new shorts or stopped out longs, the overall effect for the FOX is the same - more sellers so he can go long.
2. Then there will typically be three moves either up or down with pullbacks/rallies in between. On a larger time frame, this will typically happen over a week, with three or possibly four days movement, and a day or two days back into the range, as FOX offloads his position and sets up for the next run.
3. To validate a move, there should be enough pips approximating the ADR, otherwise it may not be a valid move. This gives us the heads up on which way the FOX is going to go next.
4. After the three moves, we're expecting accumulation again so beware at this stage and wait. All this happens on an intraday cycle as well which is where we'll drop down to the 15min (or even 5min charts).
5. As a generalisation we're expecting 3 moves. Typically the Asian session will be accumulation, setting the high and low so far, but then FOX will want to play, and so will begin to break out during London session, which is where we're looking for his tracks, the Ms and Ws, double tops/bottoms etc. But remember FOX purpose here is to create selling/buying bias the opposite way he wants to go because the balance equation must hold. So once we know which way FOX is going to go, we can tag along and follow his lead.
6. On the intraday, we can also look at the higher/weekly cycle to give us a clue as to which way this is going to go. For instance, if we've only had the first leg on the daily run, then after the Asian session we're expecting the second leg in the same direction as the first. So if that was long, I'd expect to see stop hunting going short around the London open, before heading long again.
7. The final piece is reversals. If during any session, we've already had the three phases for the entire run, and ADR is reached (approximate), then I could be looking for a reverse. For instance, if during London, all three phases complete say going long, I'm looking for a definite reversal around the NY open, although it can happen later (or sooner).

B. Other key elements of a FOX setup
Levels are a *guide*. Sometimes you get 2 pushes up or down then a reversal, sometimes 4 or 5, generally it's three. So if you've seen three days of rise or fall, then it's time to start looking for other key elements of a FOX setup.

1. Is there an area of consolidation to the left, (mostly likely in the Asian session)?
2. Does the range widen after this area (e.g. post the Asian session?)
3. On the lower timeframe (say 15M) is there a forceful push outside of this consolidation range and into a potential area of manipulation (look for a few quick, strong candles into yesterdays high or low, week high or low, a previous swing point or some other obvious point)
4. Does the spread widen to activate pending orders just beyond this level?
5. After this quick push, does price rapidly retreat to close back below (above) the level, forming a pin or railroad tracks?
6. Has an M or W formed at this level, preferably with the high or low of one leg beyond the level, but closes back beneath (above it)?

2. Other parts of the pattern (besides M/W).
1. Where are we in the level count? This gives us a bias long or short. This is generally easiest to
see on the 1hr chart.
2. Consolidation / accumulation. Where has Fox been building a position? Don't forget to look at
the Asian session range which sets the initial high of the day and low of the day. These are reference points for breakout traders.
3. Stop hunt. This is the most critical part of the setup. Once Foxy has enough traders/liquidity trapped in weak positions, he will hit the stops to shake them out of their trade, and take their opposite position to them, ready for the real move. Stop hunts are often M or W patterns -
but they don't have to be. They must however have railroad tracks or pins, and those pins should
move a bit beyond an obvious level - for example beyond the Asian session high or low, peaking beyond a previous swing high or low, breaking an obvious trendline etc - this is to sucker traders into initiating positions on the wrong side of the move to come. FOX often hits the stops high, and then hits the stops low, or the reverse, before starting the real move.
4. The direction of the real move will be in the direction of the level count - if you've just seen a
major peak low - the move is up, if you just seen a major peak high the move is down. Once you've spotted this peak level, you can look for three pushes (over three days), with each major push being a level. When you're first learning to trade this way, it’s safest short from peak high M, and W patterns long from peak low.
5. Once the stop hunt is complete, look for the "W", "M" or straight away moves. These moves may have 3 levels up or down. You can have a 3 day cycle of either rising or falling price. After this 3 day cycle completes, you may have a reversal into another 3 day cycle.
6.If you trade on the 15M and are looking to "day-trade", 50 pips is the target. If you are
looking for the next move out of a level 3 reset, then the targets are 3xADR, with stops being moved up when a new level is reached and price moves away from that level, or a 20-30pip trailing stop.
7. If you determine that the last low was the Peak Low or the start of the next 3 day cycle, remember that ADR is your friend. In a way, the ADR is a "speed limit" that is placed on a dealer. So if we are starting a new 3 day cycle and ADR is 103 for this pair, we would be looking to short at around 3 X ADR 103) = 309 pips from the low....our bias should be long until something changes in the cycle or we hit apprx.309 pips of rise.
8. Quality set-ups. These are at the LOH/HOD, level 3's, with "M" and "W"'s...If you are trading the 15M time frame, 50 pips is a good target. If you get the LOD/HOD, level 3 trade, expect 3 rises or falls in that daily cycle...hold longer for more pips. That's 3 days of rise or fall, from a peak high or low, with 3 pushes in price, up or down on the 3rd day or level 3. That's why you need to find the weekly cycle.

[sympathy]

AJ


NU


I moved SL to BE after 10 pips and got stopped. You alway say "take what is given", I was given 10 pips but this is not a target for H1 moves right? How could I predict that pullback. So hard to learn this stuff having mostly negative results. And I doubt my AUDJPY SL will hold.

nice trade botrak. pls dont trade this method with a live account ok. try and practice very well before going live. your exit depends on your entry. you can leave it for 2days let it ride .

[Zaleske]

To nkosi1, welcome mate, this is a very good post. I'm keeping it aside

[sympathy]

Greetings All
I am "new" to the forum, having worked my way through the various tarding styles/techniques (and having looked straight up my backside for a good while nothwithstanding the very good advice from my lovely wife re CJ and the forum - male thing aye) and now confess that CJ is bang on. I would have been a hellava lot further down the tracks if I had assimilated this much much ealier, but its never too late! So, thank you CJ, and the other outstanding contributors to this forum, and particularly you Sympathy ( I to hail from Africa). I have little knowledge to contibute, BUT, I have made a number of summaries of what is directly pertinant to me (dumb ass lawyer liked to have a document to reference!!) from the site, including CJ pdf. Much of it is cut and paste, but it short tracks much of what is discussed, with charts. If anyone would like it I guess I can figure out how to get it up here. In the meantime, here is a summary of bullet criticals - for me. Hope this helps someone else out there.

1. Homework to create your daily watch list.

A. Establish LEVELS. Start with the D1, H4 and H1 time frames, looking for level 1 or level 3's in the
bigger cycles. Do this for every pair.
B. Then drop down into the 15M and look for the correct setup to enter. Look for pairs that are at the Hi or Lo of yesterday/today, near the extremes of the ADR. Trade the "edges" in on each setup, not the centres out.
C. CJ Golden Rule
It's generally 3 to 5 days of price movement in one direction, higher or lower and these patterns are based on the 15M or 1H time frame. These patterns will repeat across all the time frames.... if you can't determine the PEAK LOW and PEAK HIGH.
The whole premiss here is to ONLY TRADE FROM THE PEAK HIGH OR THE PEAK LOW!

Your BUY or SELL should only be placed at the PEAK HIGH OR PEAK LOW when it coincides with the HOD or LOD....

PEAK HIGH? Yes.....HOD? Yes......SELL
PEAL LOW? Yes.....LOD? Yes.......BUY

PEAK HIGH? Yes...HOD? Yes.... ADR HIGH? Yes.....SELL THE SHIT OUT OF IT!!!
PEAL LOW? Yes.....LOD? Yes.....ADR LOW? Yes.....BUY THE SHIT OUT OF IT!!!!

These are the trades that run on for days.....these are the trades that will give you R:R of 10-20 or higher and cover all your small losses, where you set that tight stop ABOVE OR BELOW THE PEAK HIGH OR THE PEAK LOW....these are the trades on which to stack additional orders, when it is moving in the intended direction....YOU GOT IT RIGHT SO LAY IT TO THEM!

There are no other trades....do not take them at any other level than PEAK HIGH or PEAK LOW....
Rise or fall is determined from the PEAK HIGH or PEAK LOW, not candle open and candle close....

Summary B.
1. Grab the Asian range. Generally between 15 to 50 pips. This is the accumulation phase on low volumes.
2. Around London open, mark the Asian hi/low range.
3. Wait for the Asian breakout, no matter if it is to the upside or downside, you don't care
4. After 30 to 90min, mark the LOD/HOD (low of the day, high of the day).
5. Price will retrace a bit, now look for "M" or "W" patterns.
6. Enter short at the top, long at the bottom at the second retest. Look also for patterns like pin's, rrt, hanging man, etc in the M & W zones.
7. . Breakout traders are trapped in their breakout thing. They are now hoping the price will go at least at their entry price to exit at BE ... but price is now ranging, they are stuck ....
8 If all is ok you should be in profit
9.Around one hour after, the trend will resume and the price will be begin to drift in your direction forcing breakout trader to close their order, this will also accelerate the move.
10. Take your short position from the HOD and long position from the LOD after a M or W pattern.

Stop loss should be above the highs or lows (give enough room to avoid getting trapped by broker spread widening). If the price sky rockets to the upside or downside & you don't see a pullback or a M or W after the breakout, too bad for that one. Go hunting on another pair.

Be careful between London & NY close, there should be a pullback if the range was big. This keeps a bit of volume and money for the next day.

Summary A.
1. We're looking for the accumulation/manipulation/stop hunt phase first. The stop hunt, say there's a large pinbar dropping south, this will do two things:
A - it will trigger sellers playing breakout, ema strategies etc, and
B. - when a long position is stopped out, at that point he is forced to sell to close out his buy. So either way whether it's new shorts or stopped out longs, the overall effect for the FOX is the same - more sellers so he can go long.
2. Then there will typically be three moves either up or down with pullbacks/rallies in between. On a larger time frame, this will typically happen over a week, with three or possibly four days movement, and a day or two days back into the range, as FOX offloads his position and sets up for the next run.
3. To validate a move, there should be enough pips approximating the ADR, otherwise it may not be a valid move. This gives us the heads up on which way the FOX is going to go next.
4. After the three moves, we're expecting accumulation again so beware at this stage and wait. All this happens on an intraday cycle as well which is where we'll drop down to the 15min (or even 5min charts).
5. As a generalisation we're expecting 3 moves. Typically the Asian session will be accumulation, setting the high and low so far, but then FOX will want to play, and so will begin to break out during London session, which is where we're looking for his tracks, the Ms and Ws, double tops/bottoms etc. But remember FOX purpose here is to create selling/buying bias the opposite way he wants to go because the balance equation must hold. So once we know which way FOX is going to go, we can tag along and follow his lead.
6. On the intraday, we can also look at the higher/weekly cycle to give us a clue as to which way this is going to go. For instance, if we've only had the first leg on the daily run, then after the Asian session we're expecting the second leg in the same direction as the first. So if that was long, I'd expect to see stop hunting going short around the London open, before heading long again.
7. The final piece is reversals. If during any session, we've already had the three phases for the entire run, and ADR is reached (approximate), then I could be looking for a reverse. For instance, if during London, all three phases complete say going long, I'm looking for a definite reversal around the NY open, although it can happen later (or sooner).

B. Other key elements of a FOX setup
Levels are a *guide*. Sometimes you get 2 pushes up or down then a reversal, sometimes 4 or 5, generally it's three. So if you've seen three days of rise or fall, then it's time to start looking for other key elements of a FOX setup.

1. Is there an area of consolidation to the left, (mostly likely in the Asian session)?
2. Does the range widen after this area (e.g. post the Asian session?)
3. On the lower timeframe (say 15M) is there a forceful push outside of this consolidation range and into a potential area of manipulation (look for a few quick, strong candles into yesterdays high or low, week high or low, a previous swing point or some other obvious point)
4. Does the spread widen to activate pending orders just beyond this level?
5. After this quick push, does price rapidly retreat to close back below (above) the level, forming a pin or railroad tracks?
6. Has an M or W formed at this level, preferably with the high or low of one leg beyond the level, but closes back beneath (above it)?

2. Other parts of the pattern (besides M/W).
1. Where are we in the level count? This gives us a bias long or short. This is generally easiest to
see on the 1hr chart.
2. Consolidation / accumulation. Where has Fox been building a position? Don't forget to look at
the Asian session range which sets the initial high of the day and low of the day. These are reference points for breakout traders.
3. Stop hunt. This is the most critical part of the setup. Once Foxy has enough traders/liquidity trapped in weak positions, he will hit the stops to shake them out of their trade, and take their opposite position to them, ready for the real move. Stop hunts are often M or W patterns -
but they don't have to be. They must however have railroad tracks or pins, and those pins should
move a bit beyond an obvious level - for example beyond the Asian session high or low, peaking beyond a previous swing high or low, breaking an obvious trendline etc - this is to sucker traders into initiating positions on the wrong side of the move to come. FOX often hits the stops high, and then hits the stops low, or the reverse, before starting the real move.
4. The direction of the real move will be in the direction of the level count - if you've just seen a
major peak low - the move is up, if you just seen a major peak high the move is down. Once you've spotted this peak level, you can look for three pushes (over three days), with each major push being a level. When you're first learning to trade this way, it’s safest short from peak high M, and W patterns long from peak low.
5. Once the stop hunt is complete, look for the "W", "M" or straight away moves. These moves may have 3 levels up or down. You can have a 3 day cycle of either rising or falling price. After this 3 day cycle completes, you may have a reversal into another 3 day cycle.
6.If you trade on the 15M and are looking to "day-trade", 50 pips is the target. If you are
looking for the next move out of a level 3 reset, then the targets are 3xADR, with stops being moved up when a new level is reached and price moves away from that level, or a 20-30pip trailing stop.
7. If you determine that the last low was the Peak Low or the start of the next 3 day cycle, remember that ADR is your friend. In a way, the ADR is a "speed limit" that is placed on a dealer. So if we are starting a new 3 day cycle and ADR is 103 for this pair, we would be looking to short at around 3 X ADR 103) = 309 pips from the low....our bias should be long until something changes in the cycle or we hit apprx.309 pips of rise.
8. Quality set-ups. These are at the LOH/HOD, level 3's, with "M" and "W"'s...If you are trading the 15M time frame, 50 pips is a good target. If you get the LOD/HOD, level 3 trade, expect 3 rises or falls in that daily cycle...hold longer for more pips. That's 3 days of rise or fall, from a peak high or low, with 3 pushes in price, up or down on the 3rd day or level 3. That's why you need to find the weekly cycle.

Nice summary bro. i guess you have read enough because all the write-ups are perfectly ok.thanks man.

[websie]

EURGBP Big pin on H4, 3 levels H1, M30/M15 M, High of day so I've sold it

[botrak]

These are H4 levels I see.

guH1.jpg

:hi:

guH1v2.jpg

And one from usdcad, have some open trades maybe will post more 2day

ucadm15.jpg

[botrak]

I see similar things at my AJ chart from last week and today's one. But can I rely on this? Ofcourse H4 price wont mirror M15 one all the way to present momet. Patterns repeat but where is the begining of patern and where is the end of it? Or maybe Im wrong at all and this is not map to follow but just two ABC patterns that look alike.

ajm15v1.jpg

ajh4v1.jpg

[Piter80]

Well done Botrak.Folllow Your map