Good thoughts. Here is a post at FF from someone I dont even know. Yet similar sentiments.
I think that DailyFx/FXCM actually studied the habits of traders, but only limited it to traders between $1,000 and $10,000.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...rade-Size.html
In a nutshell, their stats suggest that there is an inverse relationship between leverage and profitability. Traders with larger equity balances tend to utilize less leverage; traders with smaller balances, more, and that this fact -- inability to properly manage the exposure of their equity -- leads to smaller traders' lack of profitability.
But it is now common knowledge that, for the vast majority of brokers (and perhaps all of them), less than 50% of their forex trading retail customers are profitable. On average, across all brokers, studies of retail traders show that they are abysmally unsuccessful, with only an average of 35% for all brokers in the study showing profitability: "During the [FY 2013 third quarter], brokers reported that 35% of US retail forex traders made money, with 65% experiencing losses."
http://forexmagnates.com/exclusive-q....tA7dGlDB.dpuf That's kind of a "wow" to me ... .
For some reason, my broker (FXCM) has the most unsuccessful retail clients, with more than 72% showing unprofitability, which to me is somewhat odd since they seem to push sensible risk management guidelines over and over and over to folks.
All that being said, it also appears that the most successful traders are extremely profitable.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/to...ers-statistics For example, of Oanda's Top 100 traders, 89% of the Top 100 trading EUR/USD (yes, 89%) made profitable trades within the past 24 hours; 92% trading AUD/USD were profitable in this time period were profitable, ... and the list goes on. (Naturally I know that win rate isn't everything, but this is Oanda's Top 100, and I can only assume that every single last one of them is profitable.)
Unfortunately, I don't think any of these studies break down the customer base (with the exception of DailyFx's $1,000-$10,000 study) by account size, which would be informative, but if DailyFx's study is any indication, any breakdown is likely to show that smaller account holders are substantially more likely to fail than large ones and that is probably because these folks are trying to go from $1,000 to $1,000,000 in a year and simply have no desire to attempt to limit their market exposure to 1x equity per trade and 10 x equity exposure (or some other sensible limit) for all open positions because they will not "get rich quick" that way.
The likelihood that such traders are "bending the curve" is high; there is simply no way that a highly overleveraged trader can survive multiple trading mistakes without blowing up their account.
Although these studies do not give me boundless optimism that I will become a millionaire by the time I retire (more than a decade to go ... ugh), I do have realistic expectations that my forex trading will be profitable since I do adhere (somewhat religiously) to the 1 x equity per position/10 x equity for all positions rules-of-thumb which has allowed me to weather my fair share of F-up's without putting a large dent in my equity (and spared me a heart attack or two, no doubt).
As a parting thought, I am unsure of why folks (not naming names) would still have skin in this "game" if they were not successful at it, didn't think they could ever be, and don't think it is possible for anyone to be. They're like a quadraplegic who tries to swim the English channel, utlimately giving up and declaring: "Can't be done. Not humanly possible."
Well, maybe not for you.
